Goal scoring options

[Exiled_red]

I know alot has been made about our lack of striking options recently and rightly so, but looking around the squad I feel we lack players capable of chipping in with their share of goals. So I've had a look at some stats for us and the teams around us: (stats for all competitions)

....................Che....MU....Ars....MC....Tot. ...Liv....AV
Total Goals.....114....111....104....92.....85....72.... .75
Top 5 scorers...87......66......56....58.....62....57... ..62
% by top 5......76%...59%...53%...63%..72%..79%..70%


We are much more reliant on our top 5 goal scorers (Torres 22; Kuyt 11; Gerrard 10; Ngog 7; Benayoun 7) than any of these other clubs are on their top 5 scorers, the only club that come close is Chelsea.

If you look at the distribution of the goals:

....................Che....MU....Ars....MC....Tot. ...Liv....AV
No of scorers....14....17.....19.....21.....18.....14... ..14
Players with 2+..12...12......15....12.....10......7......10
Players with 5+...6.....6.......9......6......5.......6.......5
Players with 10+..4....2........3.....3.......3......3.......3

The top scorers at the club are in similar proportions to other clubs (no of players with 5 or 10+ goals) but after them no one is contributing. They on average have 5 players more than us scoring between 2 and 5 goals, that's probably somewhere between 15 and 20 extra goals a season (in all competitions) which takes some pressure off other players in the team.

So why aren't our other players able to contribute goals to the team?

Sorry for the long stats based post and yes I have been bored in work this morning

[The Birdman]

I know alot has been made about our lack of striking options recently and rightly so, but looking around the squad I feel we lack players capable of chipping in with their share of goals. So I've had a look at some stats for us and the teams around us: (stats for all competitions)

....................Che....MU....Ars....MC....Tot. ...Liv....AV
Total Goals.....114....111....104....92.....85....72.... .75
Top 5 scorers...87......66......56....58.....62....57... ..62
% by top 5......76%...59%...53%...63%..72%..79%..70%


We are much more reliant on our top 5 goal scorers (Torres 22; Kuyt 11; Gerrard 10; Ngog 7; Benayoun 7) than any of these other clubs are on their top 5 scorers, the only club that come close is Chelsea.

If you look at the distribution of the goals:

....................Che....MU....Ars....MC....Tot. ...Liv....AV
No of scorers....14....17.....19.....21.....18.....14... ..14
Players with 2+..12...12......15....12.....10......7......10
Players with 5+...6.....6.......9......6......5.......6.......5
Players with 10+..4....2........3.....3.......3......3.......3

The top scorers at the club are in similar proportions to other clubs (no of players with 5 or 10+ goals) but after them no one is contributing. They on average have 5 players more than us scoring between 2 and 5 goals, that's probably somewhere between 15 and 20 extra goals a season (in all competitions) which takes some pressure off other players in the team.

So why aren't our other players able to contribute goals to the team?

Sorry for the long stats based post and yes I have been bored in work this morning

As good as post as that is I think you're disproving the point you're trying to make.
We are very similar in those stats to Chelsea who are going to win the double, the big difference in those stats between them and us is the amount of players with 2+ goals, that can easily be explained by the strength of their squad as players like J.Cole, Kalou, Deco would all have chipped in but aren't regulars.
The main difference between Chelsea and us this season is their midfield goalscorer has got his 20+ again, ours has 8

[Kenneth]

As good as post as that is I think you're disproving the point you're trying to make.
We are very similar in those stats to Chelsea who are going to win the double, the big difference in those stats between them and us is the amount of players with 2+ goals, that can easily be explained by the strength of their squad as players like J.Cole, Kalou, Deco would all have chipped in but aren't regulars.
The main difference between Chelsea and us this season is their midfield goalscorer has got his 20+ again, ours has 8

[Exiled_red]

As good as post as that is I think you're disproving the point you're trying to make.
We are very similar in those stats to Chelsea who are going to win the double, the big difference in those stats between them and us is the amount of players with 2+ goals, that can easily be explained by the strength of their squad as players like J.Cole, Kalou, Deco would all have chipped in but aren't regulars.
The main difference between Chelsea and us this season is their midfield goalscorer has got his 20+ again, ours has 8

With the top table the stats are similar, however the second table illustrates the difference; the large number of goals Chelsea's squad have in total scored means that the 24% of goals contributed by the remained of the chelsea squad represents ~28 goals whereas our 21% represents ~12 goals. Add to this that we have had a large number of injuries meaning our fringe players have played more than Chelsea's they have probably had more chance to contribute but haven't done so.

If Gerrard had got an extra 10 goals this season that would have increase our reliance on the top 5 goals scorers to ~82%. Also if you look at our top 5 scorers you would say that two of them aren't really first choice (Benayoun and Ngog) so our strongest 11 has 4 players capable of getting 5+ goals a season! So I feel my point still stands.

[cream]

We can't score without Torres.

[elrichio86]

Its the number of goals thats the biggest difference - we're 42 behind Chelski, and 39 behind Manure.

We've scored the lowest out of the six

[Exiled_red]

Its the number of goals thats the biggest difference - we're 42 behind Chelski, and 39 behind Manure.

We've scored the lowest out of the six

While I agree ultimately that is the case, but our reliance on particular players and a lack of goal threat in the team is very worrying for me. The starting 11 we put out on Sunday had only 27 goals in all competitions between them this season, and only 20 in the league. Given we're in the middle of april and 8-9 of those players are first choice I find that depressing.

[The Birdman]

I agree we don't have enough of a goal threat throughout the side but with a consistant season behind them I would certainly expect 5 from Johnson and upwards of 10 from Maxi. Christ even Lucas (and I'm a fan of his) has shown that if he is allowed to play as a box to box midfielder he would chip in with 5 plus goals

[Kenneth]

I agree we don't have enough of a goal threat throughout the side but with a consistant season behind them I would certainly expect 5 from Johnson and upwards of 10 from Maxi. Christ even Lucas (and I'm a fan of his) has shown that if he is allowed to play as a box to box midfielder he would chip in with 5 plus goals

Not sure about that.

[The Birdman]

Not sure about that.

His run into the box for the penalty against Lille and his goal against Benfica when he ran from deep, didn't panic and went round the keeper showed he can time a run, keep his composure and finish.
He is also decent in the air so I honestly think with the shackles off and with more confidence like he has now he would chip in.

[Exiled_red]

On a perhaps related point we also have the worst shots to goals ratio of any of the sides around us (Premiership only)

..............Shots.....Goals....Shots per Goal
Man City....355........69..........5.14
Arsenal......429........75..........5.72
Man Utd.....465........77..........6.03
Chelsea......543........84..........6.46
Villa...........310........44..........7.05
Spurs.........429........58..........7.39
Liverpool.....406........54..........7.51

Calculated from stats: http://www.skysports.com/story/0,195...705370,00.html

[The Birdman]

On a perhaps related point we also have the worst shots to goals ratio of any of the sides around us (Premiership only)

..............Shots.....Goals....Shots per Goal
Man City....355........69..........5.14
Arsenal......429........75..........5.72
Man Utd.....465........77..........6.03
Chelsea......543........84..........6.46
Villa...........310........44..........7.05
Spurs.........429........58..........7.39
Liverpool.....406........54..........7.51

Calculated from stats: http://www.skysports.com/story/0,195...705370,00.html

Think Sky have counted some of Carra's clearances as shots............

[red g]

sure last year we had a few scorers

Gerrard
Torres
Benayoun
Kuyt

Who all managed plenty last year.

We also had 2no. 20+ scorers last year and this year one has been mainly injured and the other one hasnt turned up this year

[dww]

As good as post as that is I think you're disproving the point you're trying to make.
We are very similar in those stats to Chelsea who are going to win the double, the big difference in those stats between them and us is the amount of players with 2+ goals, that can easily be explained by the strength of their squad as players like J.Cole, Kalou, Deco would all have chipped in but aren't regulars.
The main difference between Chelsea and us this season is their midfield goalscorer has got his 20+ again, ours has 8

With the top table the stats are similar, however the second table illustrates the difference; the large number of goals Chelsea's squad have in total scored means that the 24% of goals contributed by the remained of the chelsea squad represents ~28 goals whereas our 21% represents ~12 goals. Add to this that we have had a large number of injuries meaning our fringe players have played more than Chelsea's they have probably had more chance to contribute but haven't done so.

If Gerrard had got an extra 10 goals this season that would have increase our reliance on the top 5 goals scorers to ~82%. Also if you look at our top 5 scorers you would say that two of them aren't really first choice (Benayoun and Ngog) so our strongest 11 has 4 players capable of getting 5+ goals a season! So I feel my point still stands.

I think this is a really interesting discussion.

Instinctively I would have made comments aligned to Exiled_red's argument and the statistical case seems to back that idea up. I think though that a big factor that it ignores is that goals can come in different times - I think a number of Ngogs goals came as 'the icing on the cake' in games already won (although this may prove an unfair impression if looked into). Either way though I don't think that we can put three players into a team that the opposition fears in terms of goals scoring in the way Chelsea can and usually do with Lampard, Drogba and Anelka. I think often the ability to create fear in the opposition and making space/forcing mistakes that way is a big factor in success in the PL and the loss of this at United has played a significant part in their regression from last year.

[Exiled_red]

The fear factor is another factor in it, the time of goals I would imagine would have more effect on the chelsea stats given they are more likely to have been cruising in games than us this season making 'icing on the cake' goals more likely for their players.

The main problem for me is that we only have six players with 5 or more goals Torres 22, Kuyt 11, Gerrard 10, Ngog 7, Benayoun 7 and Babel 5. Now I can't imagine we'd play a starting line up with more than 4 of those players in it. The rest of the squad aren't a goal threat; aside from Johnson with 3 goals no one else has more than 1 goal all season.

While we could say that if players hadn't been out injured so much they would have chipped in with more, we still have a decent sized squad of players, and given the number of players we've used you might have expected the goals to have been shared around a little more.