For the sixth time in seven seasons the Bolton striker has committed more fouls than anyone in the Premier League – no wonder Fabio Capello isn't keen
Posted by Paul Doyle Thursday 13 May 2010 15.35 BST guardian.co.uk
Bolton's Kevin Davies, right, committed 121 fouls in the Premier League this season, the highest in the history of Opta records. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/EPA
Amid all the chinwagging and finger-pointing this week about assorted inclusions and exclusions in England's pre-World Cup squad, one man whose non-selection has provoked no controversy whatsoever is the Bolton striker Kevin Davies. But why? The barrel-chested 33-year-old has long been recognised as one of the most effective targetmen in the Premier League yet Fabio Capello, like his predecessors, has never considered him worthy of even a run-out at a training session.
Rummage through the data bases of those fine people from Opta statistics and the reason becomes obvious. This season Davies committed more fouls than any other player in the Premier League – again. This is the sixth time in the past seven seasons that he has topped that particular poll, which is really quite impressive. Aston Villa's John Carew managed to interrupt his dominance two years ago but Davies responded to that affront in emphatic fashion – his tally of 121 fouls this season is the highest in the history of Opta records. Way to push for a World Cup spot!
In his defence, Davies could point to the fact that he is also the victim of many fouls – only Everton's Steven Pienaar was more roughed up than him this season – but the fact remains that Davies's propensity for conceding free-kicks would make him a liability on the international stage.
Stats do not, of course, provide a full understanding of performances. But poring over Opta's cornucopia of end-of-season figures is, for those of us of an unashamedly geeky disposition, one of the great pleasures of May.
Who can fail to be intrigued, for example, by the rankings for chance creation? The fact that Arsenal's Cesc Fábregas generated opportunities more frequently than any other player (every 23.1 minutes, apparently) will shock no one, but who is that at No7 in the overall list – behind Ryan Giggs, Florent Malouda, Frank Lampard, Salomon Kalou and Antonio Valencia? Why it's the celebrated Wolves schemer Chris Iwelumo! Sure, he did it over a briefer period than many others but only players who created more than 10 chances are eligible for inclusion in the list and the burly Scot forged an opening every 29.6 minutes, a better rate than Robin van Persie (30.6), Nani (31.1) and, yes, Wigan's Hendry Thomas (212.5).
The stats also help answer a question that many at Liverpool have long been asking: what is Lucas Leiva for? The much-maligned Brazilian put in more tackles (148, winning 102) this season than all but three other players in the league – though the most prolific tackler remains his team-mate, Javier Mascherano (178, of which he won 144), ahead of Mohamed Diamé of Wigan (176, won 125) and Fabrice Muamba of Bolton (152, won 102).
There are four Liverpool players in the top 30 most frequent tacklers – more than any other team. Arsenal have only one – Alexandre Song is 23rd, having attempted 88 tackles, one fewer than Birmingham's James McFadden. You might deduce that this is because Arsenal did not need to tackle as much since they tended to have the ball a lot – and it is true that only Chelsea averaged more possession in matches (59.8% to Arsenal's 59.3%). But Liverpool averaged 59.1%. They may have had the ball at their feet quite a bit, but Liverpool also had their heads in their hands a lot – they were denied by the frame of the goal more times (20) than any other team this season.
One of the starkest trends in the Premier League in recent years has been the increasing importance of set-pieces – the proportion of goals originating from them has leapt by over 7% in the last five years, reaching 36.66% this season. That pattern is perhaps what has convinced Arsène Wenger finally to declare that he will address his team's defensive problems: Arsenal's organisational problems at the back, exacerbated by the lack of a commanding goalkeeper, were reflected in the number of goals they conceded from set-pieces, 23 – only the three relegated sides and Wigan let in more. Perhaps Wenger should turn this summer to Birmingham's Roger Johnson, who made more clearances (440) than any other player in the division this season (Zat Knight was next with 434 before a big gap until you reach Sylvain Distin, 388).
The main factor in the climb in set-piece goals has been greater accuracy from corners and throw-ins. Last season 11.89% of goals came from corners; this season that figure rose to 13.58%. Manchester City were most dangerous from corners this term, scoring 15 goals (Blackburn were next, with 12). The proportion of goals from throw-ins, meanwhile, has doubled in the last two years – from 1.5% in 2007-08 to 2.94% this season. The obvious conclusion to draw from that is that the figures have been distorted by Stoke. But while it is true that Tony Pulis's troops flung in far more long throws this season than any other team (608 – Wigan were next with 459), they are not the most lethal from them. Their throw-ins led to five goals this season, whereas Bolton scored from six (Grétar Steinsson didn't score any of them, alas – in fact, he had more shots without hitting the target than any other player in the league).
If you had never seen Stoke play, you could quickly ascertain their style from a look at the stats – snobs may say that is the most entertaining way to watch them. They averaged far less possession per match than any other team (39.6%), made fewer passes (10,314, compared to Manchester United's 19,327), mustered fewer shots, and hit a higher percentage of their passes long than anyone else (21.12%). But Stoke finished well clear of trouble because what they do, they do well: they were, for example, the most accurate crossers in the league (26.76% completion rate when corners are included, just ahead of Chelsea and Aston Villa and way in front of the league's least accurate crossers – Arsenal, on 17.49%).
Bolton, of course, also like to hit long balls, mostly to our friend Davies. But Owen Coyle has been gradually altering their approach. Before Coyle's arrival in January, they used to resort to long balls even more than Stoke – hitting 22.22% long. Coyle brought that rate down to 18.19%. Over the first 18 matches of the season they averaged 41.48% possession; over the 20 league games with Coyle that figure increased to 44.35%. And that change was not at the cost of physicality, since under Coyle Bolton won 58.49% of duels, compared with 56.58% under Gary Megson.
Elsewhere, Martin O'Neill's reluctance to rotate his squad as much as many supporters would have liked drew much criticism and was blamed for contributing to Aston Villa's decline towards the end of the season. Not only was O'Neill disinclined to rotate, he did not even like making substitutions – he made only 67 in the league during this campaign, far fewer than anyone else (neighbour Alex McLeish was the next most conservative, making 84 at Birmingham). Blackburn's Sam Allardyce made the most with 110.
O'Neill, though, was right to show faith in some players. Ashley Young delivered far more crosses than any other player (272 – the next most prolific was Leighton Baines, with 210). Gabriel Agbonlahor, meanwhile, was the most accurate shot-maker in the league: 64.29% of his 56 shots were on target. Nicolas Anelka ran him close with 63.89% from 72 – and the Frenchman was exceptionally accurate from outside the area, with bang on 60% of his efforts finding the target. Only Damien Duff was better from long range (69.57% of shots from outside the area on target) – no one else came close. Indeed, Tottenham fans may have found the new Stefan Freund: a meagre 17.4% of Luka Modric's shots from outside the box were on target.
Finally, some hope for Cardiff and Blackpool as they prepare to do battle for the right to compete in the Premier League next season: this year 31 points would have been enough to secure survival, the lowest total. In fact, there is rarely any need to reach the mythical 40-point mark: only once in the last 12 seasons would 39 points not have been sufficient (in 2003, when West Ham went down with 42), and usually 35 will do.
Posted by Paul Doyle Thursday 13 May 2010 15.35 BST guardian.co.uk
Bolton's Kevin Davies, right, committed 121 fouls in the Premier League this season, the highest in the history of Opta records. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/EPA
Amid all the chinwagging and finger-pointing this week about assorted inclusions and exclusions in England's pre-World Cup squad, one man whose non-selection has provoked no controversy whatsoever is the Bolton striker Kevin Davies. But why? The barrel-chested 33-year-old has long been recognised as one of the most effective targetmen in the Premier League yet Fabio Capello, like his predecessors, has never considered him worthy of even a run-out at a training session.
Rummage through the data bases of those fine people from Opta statistics and the reason becomes obvious. This season Davies committed more fouls than any other player in the Premier League – again. This is the sixth time in the past seven seasons that he has topped that particular poll, which is really quite impressive. Aston Villa's John Carew managed to interrupt his dominance two years ago but Davies responded to that affront in emphatic fashion – his tally of 121 fouls this season is the highest in the history of Opta records. Way to push for a World Cup spot!
In his defence, Davies could point to the fact that he is also the victim of many fouls – only Everton's Steven Pienaar was more roughed up than him this season – but the fact remains that Davies's propensity for conceding free-kicks would make him a liability on the international stage.
Stats do not, of course, provide a full understanding of performances. But poring over Opta's cornucopia of end-of-season figures is, for those of us of an unashamedly geeky disposition, one of the great pleasures of May.
Who can fail to be intrigued, for example, by the rankings for chance creation? The fact that Arsenal's Cesc Fábregas generated opportunities more frequently than any other player (every 23.1 minutes, apparently) will shock no one, but who is that at No7 in the overall list – behind Ryan Giggs, Florent Malouda, Frank Lampard, Salomon Kalou and Antonio Valencia? Why it's the celebrated Wolves schemer Chris Iwelumo! Sure, he did it over a briefer period than many others but only players who created more than 10 chances are eligible for inclusion in the list and the burly Scot forged an opening every 29.6 minutes, a better rate than Robin van Persie (30.6), Nani (31.1) and, yes, Wigan's Hendry Thomas (212.5).
The stats also help answer a question that many at Liverpool have long been asking: what is Lucas Leiva for? The much-maligned Brazilian put in more tackles (148, winning 102) this season than all but three other players in the league – though the most prolific tackler remains his team-mate, Javier Mascherano (178, of which he won 144), ahead of Mohamed Diamé of Wigan (176, won 125) and Fabrice Muamba of Bolton (152, won 102).
There are four Liverpool players in the top 30 most frequent tacklers – more than any other team. Arsenal have only one – Alexandre Song is 23rd, having attempted 88 tackles, one fewer than Birmingham's James McFadden. You might deduce that this is because Arsenal did not need to tackle as much since they tended to have the ball a lot – and it is true that only Chelsea averaged more possession in matches (59.8% to Arsenal's 59.3%). But Liverpool averaged 59.1%. They may have had the ball at their feet quite a bit, but Liverpool also had their heads in their hands a lot – they were denied by the frame of the goal more times (20) than any other team this season.
One of the starkest trends in the Premier League in recent years has been the increasing importance of set-pieces – the proportion of goals originating from them has leapt by over 7% in the last five years, reaching 36.66% this season. That pattern is perhaps what has convinced Arsène Wenger finally to declare that he will address his team's defensive problems: Arsenal's organisational problems at the back, exacerbated by the lack of a commanding goalkeeper, were reflected in the number of goals they conceded from set-pieces, 23 – only the three relegated sides and Wigan let in more. Perhaps Wenger should turn this summer to Birmingham's Roger Johnson, who made more clearances (440) than any other player in the division this season (Zat Knight was next with 434 before a big gap until you reach Sylvain Distin, 388).
The main factor in the climb in set-piece goals has been greater accuracy from corners and throw-ins. Last season 11.89% of goals came from corners; this season that figure rose to 13.58%. Manchester City were most dangerous from corners this term, scoring 15 goals (Blackburn were next, with 12). The proportion of goals from throw-ins, meanwhile, has doubled in the last two years – from 1.5% in 2007-08 to 2.94% this season. The obvious conclusion to draw from that is that the figures have been distorted by Stoke. But while it is true that Tony Pulis's troops flung in far more long throws this season than any other team (608 – Wigan were next with 459), they are not the most lethal from them. Their throw-ins led to five goals this season, whereas Bolton scored from six (Grétar Steinsson didn't score any of them, alas – in fact, he had more shots without hitting the target than any other player in the league).
If you had never seen Stoke play, you could quickly ascertain their style from a look at the stats – snobs may say that is the most entertaining way to watch them. They averaged far less possession per match than any other team (39.6%), made fewer passes (10,314, compared to Manchester United's 19,327), mustered fewer shots, and hit a higher percentage of their passes long than anyone else (21.12%). But Stoke finished well clear of trouble because what they do, they do well: they were, for example, the most accurate crossers in the league (26.76% completion rate when corners are included, just ahead of Chelsea and Aston Villa and way in front of the league's least accurate crossers – Arsenal, on 17.49%).
Bolton, of course, also like to hit long balls, mostly to our friend Davies. But Owen Coyle has been gradually altering their approach. Before Coyle's arrival in January, they used to resort to long balls even more than Stoke – hitting 22.22% long. Coyle brought that rate down to 18.19%. Over the first 18 matches of the season they averaged 41.48% possession; over the 20 league games with Coyle that figure increased to 44.35%. And that change was not at the cost of physicality, since under Coyle Bolton won 58.49% of duels, compared with 56.58% under Gary Megson.
Elsewhere, Martin O'Neill's reluctance to rotate his squad as much as many supporters would have liked drew much criticism and was blamed for contributing to Aston Villa's decline towards the end of the season. Not only was O'Neill disinclined to rotate, he did not even like making substitutions – he made only 67 in the league during this campaign, far fewer than anyone else (neighbour Alex McLeish was the next most conservative, making 84 at Birmingham). Blackburn's Sam Allardyce made the most with 110.
O'Neill, though, was right to show faith in some players. Ashley Young delivered far more crosses than any other player (272 – the next most prolific was Leighton Baines, with 210). Gabriel Agbonlahor, meanwhile, was the most accurate shot-maker in the league: 64.29% of his 56 shots were on target. Nicolas Anelka ran him close with 63.89% from 72 – and the Frenchman was exceptionally accurate from outside the area, with bang on 60% of his efforts finding the target. Only Damien Duff was better from long range (69.57% of shots from outside the area on target) – no one else came close. Indeed, Tottenham fans may have found the new Stefan Freund: a meagre 17.4% of Luka Modric's shots from outside the box were on target.
Finally, some hope for Cardiff and Blackpool as they prepare to do battle for the right to compete in the Premier League next season: this year 31 points would have been enough to secure survival, the lowest total. In fact, there is rarely any need to reach the mythical 40-point mark: only once in the last 12 seasons would 39 points not have been sufficient (in 2003, when West Ham went down with 42), and usually 35 will do.
He's constantly all ****ing elbows. Just ask Sami. He may not do two footed lunges or the like, but I stand by him being a dirty ****house.
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