Our key players

[alunevans]

They may not be who you expected them to be.....

Analysis by stats on sport suggests that John Arne Riise is a much more important player to Liverpool's success than captain Steven Gerrard.

The analysis focuses on the comparisons between when that player is playing and when he isn't.

Liverpool at home with Gerrard in the team win 63% of the games. Without we win 61%. Away from home we win 40% with him, but 50% without him. So we do better without the captain than with.

Riise on the other hand makes a much bigger contribution to Liverpool's success. Firstly at home: we win 65% of games when he is in the side but only half the games if he is not. Away from home is even more pronounced. We win 47% when he is in the team, but only 18% when he is not.

Riise starting it seems is a key factor in whether we win or not.

Another key player is Stevie Finnan. At home its 69% with but only 58% without. Away its 43% with and 20% without. No other defenders match the contributions made by Riise and Finnan in Liverpool's success, except Carragher away from home whose ratio is 48% to 28%.

In midfield Alonso and Garcia and Momo are key men when playing at home. We win less games without them than we do with. Gonzales home starts read a similar picture at this stage although off a sample too small to be significant yet.

Away from home paints the opposite picture for Sissoko though. This is curious as one might expect him to be more important away from home breaking up the play than at home when creativity would more likely be required, but that is what the stats show (40% with, 58% without).

Only Garcia of the midfielders remains a positive starter away from home (38% with vs 27% without). A player not without his critics yet the only midfielder who, both home and away, means we are more likely to win with him than without.

Unsurprisingly none of the strikers really give us any boost.

Finally, leaving aside comparisons between how we play with or without them, who would one pick home and away if analysing only their %age win record in the team.

Here's the teams.

HOME

Reina

Finnan
Agger
Hyppia
Aurelio

Garcia
Alonso
Sissoko
Riise

Kuyt
Crouch

AWAY

Dudek

Finnan
Agger
Hyypia
Aurelio

Garcia
Gerrard
Sissoko
Riise

Kuyt
Bellamy

The closing note is that these stats are based on games since Aug 2001 so may be biased a little towards players who were doing well a few years ago. Carra's and Sami's stats were very similar so feel free to replace Sami with Carra in both teams if you feel, as I do, that recent times give Carra the edge.

Interesting stuff.

[desertscouser]

Couldn't one of the reasons why Riise and Finnan seem to be so important to the side be because their replacements in their respective positions are average players?

Interesting Gerrard stats and I'm realy not surprised re Garcia. Garcia's a match winner and is probably our most clinical finisher in front of goal which doesn't say much for our strikers.

[Nicey]

Couldn't one of the reasons why Riise and Finnan seem to be so important to the side be because their replacements in their respective positions are average players?

Interesting Gerrard stats and I'm realy not surprised re Garcia. Garcia's a match winner and is probably our most clinical finisher in front of goal which doesn't say much for our strikers.

[Fan65]

Another interesting stat is that when we score more goals than our opponent we win.

And conversely when we let in more goals than we score we lose

[alunevans]

Yeah theres loads of explanations for the stats. For instance, sometimes when players are left out its cos we're doing squad rotation and so are playing crap. Consequently their replacements will not be competing against the same quality of footballer, which will probably reflect in the stats too.

Still, what else am I meant to do when I'm bored stiff and can't sleep at five in the morning and betfair.com throw a load of stats at me.

Nonetheless some of the conclusions were strange - such as Momo being more missed at home than away.

Plus, playing devils advocate, if Stevie is so important to us, why don't we miss him when he's not there?

I thought it was an interesting topic for discussion anyhow. Miserable shower

[enema of the state]

They may not be who you expected them to be.....

Analysis by stats on sport suggests that John Arne Riise is a much more important player to Liverpool's success than captain Steven Gerrard.

The analysis focuses on the comparisons between when that player is playing and when he isn't.

Liverpool at home with Gerrard in the team win 63% of the games. Without we win 61%. Away from home we win 40% with him, but 50% without him. So we do better without the captain than with.

Riise on the other hand makes a much bigger contribution to Liverpool's success. Firstly at home: we win 65% of games when he is in the side but only half the games if he is not. Away from home is even more pronounced. We win 47% when he is in the team, but only 18% when he is not.

Riise starting it seems is a key factor in whether we win or not.

Another key player is Stevie Finnan. At home its 69% with but only 58% without. Away its 43% with and 20% without. No other defenders match the contributions made by Riise and Finnan in Liverpool's success, except Carragher away from home whose ratio is 48% to 28%.

In midfield Alonso and Garcia and Momo are key men when playing at home. We win less games without them than we do with. Gonzales home starts read a similar picture at this stage although off a sample too small to be significant yet.

Away from home paints the opposite picture for Sissoko though. This is curious as one might expect him to be more important away from home breaking up the play than at home when creativity would more likely be required, but that is what the stats show (40% with, 58% without).

Only Garcia of the midfielders remains a positive starter away from home (38% with vs 27% without). A player not without his critics yet the only midfielder who, both home and away, means we are more likely to win with him than without.

Unsurprisingly none of the strikers really give us any boost.

Finally, leaving aside comparisons between how we play with or without them, who would one pick home and away if analysing only their %age win record in the team.

Here's the teams.

HOME

Reina

Finnan
Agger
Hyppia
Aurelio

Garcia
Alonso
Sissoko
Riise

Kuyt
Crouch

AWAY

Dudek

Finnan
Agger
Hyypia
Aurelio

Garcia
Gerrard
Sissoko
Riise

Kuyt
Bellamy

The closing note is that these stats are based on games since Aug 2001 so may be biased a little towards players who were doing well a few years ago. Carra's and Sami's stats were very similar so feel free to replace Sami with Carra in both teams if you feel, as I do, that recent times give Carra the edge.

Interesting stuff.

you need to do a bit of basic statistics there mate

say someone played in 3 games and we won 2....that maight not be significant but if you compare someone playing 100 games and we win 66, then youd have something to talk about.

you need a chi squared test or a fishers test

[alunevans]

you need to do a bit of basic statistics there mate

say someone played in 3 games and we won 2....that maight not be significant but if you compare someone playing 100 games and we win 66, then youd have something to talk about.

you need a chi squared test or a fishers test

i'll leave you to post the best home and away side which is statistically significant. its no longer 5am and I'm no longer bored

[tomasjj]

I can tell you who our key players are by watching almost all our games this season.


Reina

Finnan

Carra

Agger

Xabi

Gerrard

Kuyt

[Svennis]

I can tell you who our key players are by watching almost all our games this season.


Reina

Finnan

Carra

Agger

Xabi

Gerrard

Kuyt

Yep, although I'd like to add Bellamy there too.

[alunevans]

one thing crossed my mind though. anyone who has read balague's book knows that rafa is a bit of a sta****cher. i wonder, when the club were skint and gerrard was his only way of getting a transfer kitty, whether rafa eyed the with and without stats for our stevie and made him think he was replaceable?

personally i'd never swap stevie but you know what i'm saying.

[tomasjj]

Yep, although I'd like to add Bellamy there too.

It was in my thoughts, but...

After Xmas, yes.
On the season as a whole...probably not.

[Neil Young]

It depends what games you play though. I'd imagine that Stevie G gets left out of our easiest games (on paper) so it's not that surprising if the team win without him. Whereas he will play in all the hardest games...

Having said that, does it include Europe? He has been missing from most European away games in the last couple of years, hasn't he?

Anyway, as you say, stats can be so misleading.