Premiership preview No10: Liverpool
Unless Rafa Benítez wises up away, Liverpool have no chance of finishing higher than third.
Written by Paul Doyle August 3, 2007 8:00 AM
Guardian Unlimited writers' prediction: 3rd Odds: 9-2
In his three years at Anfield, Rafael Benítez has recruited some truly rotten rubbish. But he's generally been quick to recognise and get rid of the flops, meaning his net expenditure is relatively low. Even this summer, when he's forked out a fortune in a bid to finally liberate Liverpool from 17 years of domestic strife, he's recouped nearly half of what he's spent, making his net outlay a tad over £20m, or roughly one Owen Hargreaves. If that stat means he should be spared accusations of spectacularly squandering money (wasting time may be another matter, however), shouldn't the relatively modest expenditure also mean it's unreasonable to expect Liverpool to really rival Chelsea and Manchester United?
Yes.
But then again...
The fact is Liverpool could win the Premiership this season. Their defence is undeniably formidable, two of Benítez's best signings (Pepe Reina and Daniel Agger) combining tightly with two of Gérard Houllier's best (Steven Finnan and John Arne Riise) and homegrown hero Jamie Carragher. This rigour at the rear is reflected throughout, at least in terms of mentality, which explains why last season Liverpool were the only team in the league not to incur a red card.
At home, that discipline is usually augmented not just by power and pace but, crucially, by a sense of purpose that enables them to overcome their impoverished imagination, profligate finishing and Benítez's wrong-headed rotation. That's why, despite the fact that Chelsea were unbeaten at Stamford Bridge and United amassed 47 home points to Liverpool's 46, it was Liverpool who were the most hostile hosts: they crushed almost everyone at Anfield, including Arsenal, Chelsea and United, who nevertheless fluked a victory, the only side to do so in the league.
Which brings us on to their big problem: away, their flaws came all too frequently into focus. On their travels they averaged less than a goal per game and mustered fewer victories than Bolton.
Fernando Torres could improve that record. His wonky shooting in pre-season notwithstanding, he seems to have the ingredients of a top finisher, meaning he could become the first Liverpool player in Benítez's reign to score more than 12 league goals in a season (just to make sure that statistic sounds as damning as it should, consider that an ancient Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, a novice Kevin Doyle and - wait for it - Marlon Harewood have all hit higher tallies in that time).
But poxy finishing was only part of the problem: too often Liverpool struggled to even create chances away from home. Javier Mascherano and Momo Sissoko are efficient destroyers, but neither has yet learned how to pass; away, Xabi Alonso tends to hide; and last season Jermaine Pennant was the only Liverpool player who could outwit defenders, but too often then confounded his forwards by crossing into the wilderness; even Steven Gerrard didn't storm many barns on the road. Yossi Benayoun, Andriy Voronin and Ryan Babel may inject more ingenuity - but even if they do, Liverpool will still have one big obstacle to overcome: Benítez's seemingly irresistible urge to tamper with his team.
Last season, the ludicrous line-ups began on the first day at Sheffield United, and led to early, very predictable 3-0 defeats at Everton (weeds like Luis Garcia and Fabio Aurelio for a rumble in the Merseyside jungle?!) and Arsenal (Bolo Zenden in central midfield!), after which their league campaign was over. As Jose Mourinho may have mentioned, their resignation to also-ran status in the Premiership was a major factor in their long European run - again.
Man for man, Liverpool possibly remain inferior to United and Chelsea. Manager for manager, they definitely do. Two facts that add up to third place.
In: Fernando Torres (£26.5m - Atletico Madrid), Yossi Benayoun (£5m - West Ham), Ryan Babel (£11.5m - Ajax), Andriy Voronin (free - Bayer Leverkusen); Lucio Leiva (undisclosed - Grémio)
Out: Craig Bellamy (£7.5m - West Ham), Djibril Cissé (£6m - Marseille), Mark Gonzalez (£4.2m - Real Betis), Luis Garcia (undisclosed - Atletico Madrid), Bolo Zenden (free - Marseille), Jerzy Dudek (free - Real Madrid), Robbie Fowler (free - Cardiff).
I think he's pretty much spot on with everything.
Unless Rafa Benítez wises up away, Liverpool have no chance of finishing higher than third.
Written by Paul Doyle August 3, 2007 8:00 AM
Guardian Unlimited writers' prediction: 3rd Odds: 9-2
In his three years at Anfield, Rafael Benítez has recruited some truly rotten rubbish. But he's generally been quick to recognise and get rid of the flops, meaning his net expenditure is relatively low. Even this summer, when he's forked out a fortune in a bid to finally liberate Liverpool from 17 years of domestic strife, he's recouped nearly half of what he's spent, making his net outlay a tad over £20m, or roughly one Owen Hargreaves. If that stat means he should be spared accusations of spectacularly squandering money (wasting time may be another matter, however), shouldn't the relatively modest expenditure also mean it's unreasonable to expect Liverpool to really rival Chelsea and Manchester United?
Yes.
But then again...
The fact is Liverpool could win the Premiership this season. Their defence is undeniably formidable, two of Benítez's best signings (Pepe Reina and Daniel Agger) combining tightly with two of Gérard Houllier's best (Steven Finnan and John Arne Riise) and homegrown hero Jamie Carragher. This rigour at the rear is reflected throughout, at least in terms of mentality, which explains why last season Liverpool were the only team in the league not to incur a red card.
At home, that discipline is usually augmented not just by power and pace but, crucially, by a sense of purpose that enables them to overcome their impoverished imagination, profligate finishing and Benítez's wrong-headed rotation. That's why, despite the fact that Chelsea were unbeaten at Stamford Bridge and United amassed 47 home points to Liverpool's 46, it was Liverpool who were the most hostile hosts: they crushed almost everyone at Anfield, including Arsenal, Chelsea and United, who nevertheless fluked a victory, the only side to do so in the league.
Which brings us on to their big problem: away, their flaws came all too frequently into focus. On their travels they averaged less than a goal per game and mustered fewer victories than Bolton.
Fernando Torres could improve that record. His wonky shooting in pre-season notwithstanding, he seems to have the ingredients of a top finisher, meaning he could become the first Liverpool player in Benítez's reign to score more than 12 league goals in a season (just to make sure that statistic sounds as damning as it should, consider that an ancient Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, a novice Kevin Doyle and - wait for it - Marlon Harewood have all hit higher tallies in that time).
But poxy finishing was only part of the problem: too often Liverpool struggled to even create chances away from home. Javier Mascherano and Momo Sissoko are efficient destroyers, but neither has yet learned how to pass; away, Xabi Alonso tends to hide; and last season Jermaine Pennant was the only Liverpool player who could outwit defenders, but too often then confounded his forwards by crossing into the wilderness; even Steven Gerrard didn't storm many barns on the road. Yossi Benayoun, Andriy Voronin and Ryan Babel may inject more ingenuity - but even if they do, Liverpool will still have one big obstacle to overcome: Benítez's seemingly irresistible urge to tamper with his team.
Last season, the ludicrous line-ups began on the first day at Sheffield United, and led to early, very predictable 3-0 defeats at Everton (weeds like Luis Garcia and Fabio Aurelio for a rumble in the Merseyside jungle?!) and Arsenal (Bolo Zenden in central midfield!), after which their league campaign was over. As Jose Mourinho may have mentioned, their resignation to also-ran status in the Premiership was a major factor in their long European run - again.
Man for man, Liverpool possibly remain inferior to United and Chelsea. Manager for manager, they definitely do. Two facts that add up to third place.
In: Fernando Torres (£26.5m - Atletico Madrid), Yossi Benayoun (£5m - West Ham), Ryan Babel (£11.5m - Ajax), Andriy Voronin (free - Bayer Leverkusen); Lucio Leiva (undisclosed - Grémio)
Out: Craig Bellamy (£7.5m - West Ham), Djibril Cissé (£6m - Marseille), Mark Gonzalez (£4.2m - Real Betis), Luis Garcia (undisclosed - Atletico Madrid), Bolo Zenden (free - Marseille), Jerzy Dudek (free - Real Madrid), Robbie Fowler (free - Cardiff).
I think he's pretty much spot on with everything.
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