A draw against Pompey is a good result - positivity thread

[Red Chilli]

I apologize for saying so, didn't mean to offend.

As I said, better I'm off here as it's becoming farcical.

No problem, all forgotten from my point of view.

Sorry for the extreme reaction, but as I may have alluded to in the "how does a bad result affect your day" thread, us not winning and playing poorly combined with the SCUM playing poorly and winning puts me in a filthy mood.

I'll basically have the monk on for the next 20 hours or so.

[disco]

Disco - look:

rotation

and then:

Rotation

There is a diff!

To take out Gerrard and Torres and throw Momo/Crouch in is; Rotation.

To change Kuyt with Voronin is; rotation.

Can't believe you typed all that

[Jacko]

Performance was poor but considering the Internationals this week it isn't a terrible result. The way I look at it is that it's a 1 point improvement on last season and United have already dropped points here as well. It's game five into the season and there's going to be games over the next 33 as well where this happens. Accept it and move on. If it happens reguarly then we have a problem. Portsmouth though are no mugs and at a ground where we lose as often as we win at it on yet another early kick off (and Benitez does have a point), I think it's a point gained rather than two lost.

FFS tho- people on this place. We have a great performance at home to derby and were certain champions, a draw away at a difficult side and we're useless- get a grip and grab some perspective.

[Howard_lfc]

I haven't read all of the thread but I can guess what it says........

Anyway - we could easily have lost today - but we could also have won.
Rafa had ONE day to prepare for this game and decided to rest those who had played a full game mid-week and we still got a point more than last season. The clutch of teams behind the top 4 (newcastle, spurs, everton, blackburn, pompey, west ham and citeh) will continue to take points off the the top 4 throughout the season so today's wasn't a bad result.
It'll look a whole lot better if we can beat Birmingham at home next week.

[kurtangle01]

I haven't read all of the thread but I can guess what it says........

Anyway - we could easily have lost today - but we could also have won.
Rafa had ONE day to prepare for this game and decided to rest those who had played a full game mid-week and we still got a point more than last season. The clutch of teams behind the top 4 (newcastle, spurs, everton, blackburn, pompey, west ham and citeh) will continue to take points off the the top 4 throughout the season so today's wasn't a bad result.
It'll look a whole lot better if we can beat Birmingham at home next week.

Having had time to reflect the most positive thing I can take from today is that last season we made alot of changes down at Pompey and lost where as this seaon we made alot of changes and got a point. That shows how much our squad has improved I suppose.

[Mr Nike Top]

How bad is a bad result and how good is a good result? It's always difficult to say but a quick glance at bookmakers' odds can shed some light on it, even if you are not interested in gambling.

I am using convenient numbers and approximations for easy arithmetic but here are the (rough) implied chances of each result for our Prem games so far this season. By mutliplying the chances of a Liverpool win by 3 (3 pts for a win) and adding that to the chances of a draw you can come up with a points expectation for each game. By comparing this with the actual number of points we get, you get a good approximation of how well we are doing relative to bookmakers' expectations.

Aston Villa 50% (Lpool) 30% (Draw) 20% (Opponents)
Expectation 1.8 Actual 3 +1.2

Chavs 37 33 30
Expectation 1.43 Actual 1 -0.43

Sunderland 60 25 15
Expectation 2.05 Actual 3 +0.95

Derby 80 15 5
Expectation 2.55 Actual 3 +0.45

Portsmouth 50 30 20
Expectation 1.8 Actual 1 -0.80

If you accept that this method is accurate (and I will entertain wagers on any sport from those who don't) then it would appear that today's result is quite bad but that we've had a better start to the season than was expected (we're 1.37 pts "up" so far this year), which pretty much sums up the attitude of the more reasonable posters on the Pompey match so far.

Depending on how you see the games, next week should yield the following -

Birmingham 75 15 10
Expectation 2.4

If we fail to win that game, we will have undone all our hard work.

Incidentally, it is debatable whether our expectation should be less than 1 in our two hardest fixtures, away to the Chavs and the Scum. In these cases however, if we get a draw we deprive our two biggest rivals of more points than ourselves so a draw in either of those games would be a good result.

[Marky]

How bad is a bad result and how good is a good result? It's always difficult to say but a quick glance at bookmakers' odds can shed some light on it, even if you are not interested in gambling.

I am using convenient numbers and approximations for easy arithmetic but here are the (rough) implied chances of each result for our Prem games so far this season. By mutliplying the chances of a Liverpool win by 3 (3 pts for a win) and adding that to the chances of a draw you can come up with a points expectation for each game. By comparing this with the actual number of points we get, you get a good approximation of how well we are doing relative to bookmakers' expectations.

Aston Villa 50% (Lpool) 30% (Draw) 20% (Opponents)
Expectation 1.8 Actual 3 +1.2

Chavs 37 33 30
Expectation 1.43 Actual 1 -0.43

Sunderland 60 25 15
Expectation 2.05 Actual 3 +0.95

Derby 80 15 5
Expectation 2.55 Actual 3 +0.45

Portsmouth 50 30 20
Expectation 1.8 Actual 1 -0.80

If you accept that this method is accurate (and I will entertain wagers on any sport from those who don't) then it would appear that today's result is quite bad but that we've had a better start to the season than was expected (we're 1.37 pts "up" so far this year), which pretty much sums up the attitude of the more reasonable posters on the Pompey match so far.

Depending on how you see the games, next week should yield the following -

Birmingham 75 15 10
Expectation 2.4

If we fail to win that game, we will have undone all our hard work.

Incidentally, it is debatable whether our expectation should be less than 1 in our two hardest fixtures, away to the Chavs and the Scum. In these cases however, if we get a draw we deprive our two biggest rivals of more points than ourselves so a draw in either of those games would be a good result.

[paulcooper4]

I thought we played some good stuff. Early on we looked like we were going to blow them away. Fair play to portsmouth for battling back and having a good go.

In the end, we were unlucky not to win IMO, if it had of been voronin setting torres up for that chance instead of the other way round we would have got the 3 points.

Well done reds, good battling performance overall with some really good stuff being played at times.

Another clean sheet too

[Marky]

I thought we played some good stuff. Early on we looked like we were going to blow them away. Fair play to portsmouth for battling back and having a good go.

In the end, we were unlucky not to win IMO, if it had of been voronin setting torres up for that chance instead of the other way round we would have got the 3 points.

Well done reds, good battling performance overall with some really good stuff being played at times.

Another clean sheet too

**** all clear cut chances created though Coops, surely that is cause for concern?

[paulcooper4]

**** all clear cut chances created though Coops, surely that is cause for concern?

I am not concerned at all fella. Were still unbeaten, havent let a goal in from open play, are playing football which is sublime at times, and our squad is ****in ridiculously strong.

The league is ours

[Johnny]

Disco - look:

rotation

and then:

Rotation

There is a diff!

To take out Gerrard and Torres and throw Momo/Crouch in is; Rotation.

To change Kuyt with Voronin is; rotation.

doesn`t take away from the fact that you hav`nt got a clue.

[Guest]

I am not concerned at all fella. Were still unbeaten, havent let a goal in from open play, are playing football which is sublime at times, and our squad is ****in ridiculously strong.

The league is ours

[pezzzer]

so manure, chelski, arse played quality football EVERY game when they won the league?

chill out people, like i said last year after getting our players back from int duty we would of lost that game imo, a great result considering well played rafa for keeping our powder dry!!!

[AFII]

It's not only down to keeping the players fit, Rafa must also keep the players match fit, so he can't rest Sissoko and Alonso for two weeks and play Gerrard and Mascherano three times out of four even if it's our best central midfield.

We have a to big squad right now when more or less everyone is fit. It's great to have a big squad if you have a lot of injuries and not so great to have when you have a fit squad with almost everyone available because that means problems to keep everyone match fit and that leads to more rotation than you need to do.

[Guest]

It's not only down to keeping the players fit, Rafa must also keep the players match fit, so he can't rest Sissoko and Alonso for two weeks and play Gerrard and Mascherano three times out of four even if it's our best central midfield.

We have a to big squad right now when more or less everyone is fit. It's great to have a big squad if you have a lot of injuries and not so great to have when you have a fit squad with almost everyone available because that means problems to keep everyone match fit and that leads to more rotation than you need to do.