If recent history is anything to go by, we win the mini league and we win the title?

[Parm]

if we can come out of the season with only 3 losses we will win the league

I concur

[bobbyfallon]

I concur

thanks

but i knew i was right anyways

[-V-]

But the problem is that Chelsea don't look like dropping many points against weaker teams whereas we will.

Chelsea are the team to finish ahead of

[dww]

IIRC, we drew at home to Villa, Wigan, Spurs and Birmingham. That kind of thing cant happen this time around. Stoke was one - but it has to be a one-off.

I know what you are saying but our performance against the non top four sides stands up pretty well:

Lost to: City * 2, Bolton and West ham
Drew with: Middlesbrough, Reading, Pompey, Spurs and Blackburn
= 22 points dropped

http://www.thereddevil.co.uk/man-utd-results.php?season=0708

Lost to: Reading, West Ham
drew with: Pompey, Birmingham *2, Spurs, Blackburn, City, Wigan, Boro and Villa

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/football/liverpool/results/2007-2008/

=24 points dropped

[Crazy-Horse]

But the problem is that Chelsea don't look like dropping many points against weaker teams whereas we will.

Chelsea are the team to finish ahead of

And United, and Arsenal, and Aston Villa and Everton and....

I don't care who comes 2nd to 20th and this mini-league is a pundit developed crock. How many times have we had a so-called big match, performed well, and then gone completely off the boil for a 'so-called' easier game - particularly after a Europe game.

3 points is three points, whether against United or against Spurs. You either win the game and take the points or you drop points, and lose Liverpool's rightful place at the top of the table.

[Sem]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2...nchesterunited

"Is there any relationship (over a number of seasons) between teams in the 'Big Four' winning games against each other and their final places in the league table?" wonders Andrew Webster. "It seems to me that the ability to win away at Stoke, Wigan or Fulham might be more important in terms of title aspirations than whether you win or draw at Old Trafford, Stamford Bridge, etc."

This was (briefly) mentioned in Football Weekly this week, though we didn't have a clue to the answer. So, not for the first time, it's left to the Knowledge to clear the issue up.

So taking the 2002-03 season as the dawn of the Big Four era (with nods to Newcastle and Everton who broke into the elite group in 2003 and 2005 respectively), here are the standings:

2002/03
PREMIER LEAGUE: Man U 83pts, Arsenal 78, Chelsea 67, Liverpool 64
BIG FOUR LEAGUE: Man U 14pts, Arsenal 7, Liverpool 5, Chelsea 5

2003/04
PREMIER LEAGUE: Arsenal 90pts, Chelsea 79, Man U 75, Liverpool 60
BIG FOUR LEAGUE: Arsenal 14pts, Chelsea 7, Man U 6, Liverpool 6

2004/05
PREMIER LEAGUE: Chelsea 95pts, Arsenal 83, Man U 77, Liverpool 58
BIG FOUR LEAGUE: Chelsea 14pts, Man U 12, Arsenal 5, Liverpool 3

2005/06
PREMIER LEAGUE: Chelsea 91pts, Man U 83, Liverpool 82, Arsenal 67
BIG FOUR LEAGUE: Chelsea 15pts, Man U 11, Liverpool 4, Arsenal 4

2006/07
PREMIER LEAGUE: Man U 89pts, Chelsea 83, Liverpool 68, Arsenal 68
BIG FOUR LEAGUE: Arsenal 14pts, Man U 11, Liverpool 6, Chelsea 5

2007/08
PREMIER LEAGUE: Man U 87pts, Chelsea 85, Arsenal 83, Liverpool 76
BIG FOUR LEAGUE: Man U 13pts, Chelsea 10, Arsenal 6, Liverpool 4

Pick the bones out of that. Well, it seems clear that the games between the Big Four do matter. In three of the last six seasons, the Big Four mini-league is the exact match of the final Premier League table, and in five of the six seasons the winner of the mini-league has gone on to take the title.

The only anomaly comes in 2006-07 when Arsenal romped to the mini-league title but finished fourth in the real thing. Arsène Wenger's side's success at Old Trafford and victories over Liverpool and United at the Emirates were offset by the points dropped against West Ham, Middlesbrough and co.

And no side has won the title having finished lower than second in the head-to-head contest. The overall theme is fairly emphatic, therefore - win the Big Four clashes to win the Premier League title. Looks like Liverpool are a good bet for the championship this year, then.

[Tatterdemalion]

Apologies if this is replicating previous threads, but I saw this in the Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/leagues/premierleague/arsenal/3415595/History-suggests-mini-league-will-determine-Premier-League-champions-Football.html

KEY FIXTURES BETWEEN THE SO-CALLED 'BIG FOUR'

Nov 30 Chelsea v Arsenal
Dec 21 Arsenal v Liverpool
Jan 10 Man Utd v Chelsea
Jan 31 Liverpool v Chelsea
Mar 14 Man Utd v Liverpool
April 18 Liverpool v Arsenal
May 9 Arsenal v Chelsea
May 16 Man Utd v Arsenal

So far Liverpool are in pole position with 6 points with 12 more to play for. I hope we end up with at least 14 points in total and avoid losing to the likes of Stoke, Hull and Fulham. Feedback please.

Never mind that. Our form at the end of last season, and most seasons, was strong. In the last 13 games of last season we got 32 points. Admittedly that was off a run of poor form, but that puts us on 61 points for the last 25 league games, which is most of a season and a creditable 2.44 points per game, which multiplies up to 93 points over a season. Definitely Prem league winning form.

The only caveat is that, for me, we have never quite looked like champions in all of that. Nevertheless, I actually believe now that we really are 1-2 signings off winning the prem. Another £20-30m would do the trick.

[Van Halen]

Never mind that. Our form at the end of last season, and most seasons, was strong. In the last 13 games of last season we got 32 points. Admittedly that was off a run of poor form, but that puts us on 61 points for the last 25 league games, which is most of a season and a creditable 2.44 points per game, which multiplies up to 93 points over a season. Definitely Prem league winning form.

The only caveat is that, for me, we have never quite looked like champions in all of that. Nevertheless, I actually believe now that we really are 1-2 signings off winning the prem. Another £20-30m would do the trick.

Agreed, we need a bit more strength in depth.

[Dessy]

Winning the EPL is in our own hands.....win all our remaining games we is champs.

[magicalbarnes]

if we can come out of the season with only 3 losses we will win the league

Wrong. Its not how many you lose - but how many you win. For example last year we lost less games than ManU yet they won it. Over 10 games you could win 6 and draw 4 giving you 22 points, but you could win 8 and lose 2 giving you 24 points.

[Fubar]

i think arsenal will be competing with villa for 4th . bad a start as united have had they cant be written off either. chelsea look strong most of the time.

what points total you think for this year ??

how many losses can we afford ??

see my sig

[bobbyfallon]

Wrong. Its not how many you lose - but how many you win. For example last year we lost less games than ManU yet they won it. Over 10 games you could win 6 and draw 4 giving you 22 points, but you could win 8 and lose 2 giving you 24 points.

watch this space