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    Tomkins: End shocking transfer myth

    "Okay, it must end NOW! I've reached breaking point. The shocking transfer myth must be put to rest, once and for all.

    I've tried in the past, but the media misinformation continues to gather pace like some ill-founded rumour. It's dangerous, because it causes unjust criticism.

    Let's make one thing clear: Liverpool have nowhere near the most expensive squad in the Premiership.

    No. Where. Near.

    Indeed, there are three clubs who have spent at least 50 per cent more on their current squad than Liverpool.

    Shocked? Well, you should be if you believe what's spouted out on TV. But it's true. And one of the clubs is not a name you'd necessarily expect.

    It doesn't help that some people – such as Jamie Redknapp last night – focus on Rafa's gross spend, rather than the net amount. Effectively, this means counting all the right-backs he's bought as one big outlay, rather than looking at how he's replaced one with another for roughly the same £2m fee.

    Working with just the gross spend, you add the £2m of Josemi to the £2m value of Kromkamp (even though it was a swap), to the £2.6m paid for Arbeloa. But none of these players were at the club at the same time, and each was traded to get to the point where an outright success was secured, as happened with the final purchase.

    So even though the total cost of getting Arbeloa was just the £2.6m paid, people will use a figure almost three times as high. That is illogical.

    (Another note, Jamie: Liverpool have three right-backs on the books, not just one; but the promising Darby, like Arbeloa, was injured and Degen has had a first season ruined by various ailments. So it's wrong to criticise the manager for an unbalanced squad and playing a midfielder out of position when three right-backs are unavailable.)

    It's like the housing market: you don't just go in and buy a mansion straight from school. (Okay, so maybe some footballers do, but not the normal people of this world. As someone stuck with renting, I'm speaking generally here!)

    You start with an affordable house; you then use the money from selling that to buy your next property. Most people can only get to own a big house having traded their way up over a number of years.

    Yet when someone asks how much you spent on your house, you don't add all the houses you've ever bought together, do you?

    If you own a £220,000 house, you don't say £470,000 because you add the £90,000 starter home and the £160,000 step up. That would be moronic.

    According to the excellent and reliable www.LFCHistory.net, Rafa's gross spend is approximately £188m, but his net spend is only £108m, given that around £80m has been recouped.

    (I'd hazard a guess that a large proportion of the £108m net spend has also been recouped through Champions League progress rewards, particularly with the Reds being the top-ranked team based on his five-year tenure.)

    So it's easy to pluck a figure of '£195m' from the air, live on air, and make it seem like that should make a team champions, or ultra-close challengers.

    But it's only the cost of the current squad that counts. Because that's all a manager can choose from; he can't go back in time and select a player he sold in order to trade up, just as you can't just turn up to one of your old houses and let yourself in.

    You simply cannot add Rafa having spent £5.8m on Sissoko to the £18m on Mascherano, because the two were never part of the same set-up; one was bought and sold for a profit, and as with a house, the money reinvested in a step-up. If Sissoko isn't bought and then sold, Mascherano probably doesn't arrive.

    Is that really too tough to grasp?

    From my own experience in writing 'Dynasty', I can attest that researching transfer fees is never easy, given the amount of undisclosed fees and various add-ons (for various things, like appearances, trophies won, national caps and the cultivation of unexpectedly daring hairstyles).

    But taking each fee as the most a club has expect to pay when add-ons are activated, I've calculated the cost of the most expensive squads in the league, and listed them below.

    (Note: while it's impossible to be 100 per cent accurate with the figures in the public domain, I'd say that overall it's at least 95 per cent of the true amount, and with rival teams I've actually been generous and excluded a couple of players whose cost just isn't listed anywhere I could find.)

    The most expensive squads (excluding players out on long-term loan) are as follows:

    Chelsea £207m
    Manchester United £206m*
    Spurs £188m
    Manchester City £140m
    Liverpool £127m

    (*£226m if Carlos Tevez's deal made permanent, given that it is initially a unique two-year £10m agreement, and very different from 99.9 of transfer deals. Effectively United are winning games with a £30m player.)

    So what does this tell us?

    Let's start with the leaders. United's squad contains the most home-grown players, such as Giggs, Scholes, Neville, O'Shea, Brown and Fletcher, who all arrived for free.

    So that shows that it is a long-established core supplemented by a lot of expensive signings added one by one to a unified collection. In other words, classic, spot-on building of a squad when already established at the very top.

    But it shows that even if you work with the unfair use of Rafa's gross spend, it still doesn't match what Ferguson has spent on his current squad, let alone those who have been bought and sold for record fees in the past.

    And this is utterly, utterly critical, and beyond the grasp of some people who cannot analyse things with common sense.

    After all, what does it matter how much Rafa has spent since 2004 if Ferguson is currently fielding players like Ferdinand (£30m) and Ronaldo (£12.8m) who were bought before then?

    Isn't Rafa – in the real world – competing with a team whose construction started well before he arrived?

    Unless Ferguson is banned from fielding players like Ferdinand and Ronaldo (which would be illogical), or forced to start from scratch in 2004 (again illogical), it is not a fair comparison, is it? – I mean, come on, use your brain for a second here.

    After all, how much as Harry Redknapp spent since he took over at Spurs? I make it almost £50m. How much has Rafa spent since Harry Redknapp took over at Spurs? Nothing. But only a nutter would compare the two in this deeply skewed way.

    Rafa has been in his job about five times as long as Harry, so you obviously wouldn't dare compare their teams. And yet Ferguson has been in his job about five times as long as Rafa, and yet the Spaniard is expected to have Liverpool as champions by now.

    Chelsea and Spurs are actually the more interesting examples in many ways. I knew Spurs had spent a lot, but to have a current squad that cost almost £200m shocked me. Add together the cost of Bentley, Pavyluchenko, Palacios, Bale, Defoe, Bent, Keane and Modric and you more-or-less end up with the cost of Liverpool's entire squad.

    I could be sarcastic – or media-style sensationalistic – and say that with that much spent, any manager should be able to win almost all of his matches, but it wouldn't be fair or logical. It's far more complex than that, and even a good manager like Redknapp has his work cut out.

    Chelsea and Spurs have had seven managers between them since 2007. This means different men making expensive signings and ending up with a mixed squad. Based on expenditure, both of these clubs are massively underachieving this season. Almost certainly to blame for that is the hierarchy having itchy fingers when it comes to firing managers.

    Of course, this analysis doesn't include wages, either. You don't get the very top players in the world without also having to pay them a king's ransom. Michael Ballack must be most expensive free transfer ever, with wages reported to be around £130,000 a week, or about £30m over five years. Again, Liverpool are no way near the highest payers, either.

    So there you have it. By all means print it out and pass it around; 'pass it on', as the saying goes, including to those in the media who could do with reading it. By all means quibble over some of the finer details, as there is a tolerance of a few percent on the accuracy of the figures, but the overall gist is very much sound and robust.

    Note: as all good schoolteachers tell you to do, my workings are there to see, and will be available to view on my website. "



    #2
    Everyone knows Chelsea spent £120m under Ranier and a further £225m under Mourinho, yet somehow its considered a massive success that Mourinho won 2 league titles. Yeah ****ing right.

    You only have to look at all the £30m players Man Utd have to understand how much they have spent

    Comment


      #3
      Tomkins is generally about as one sided as is permittable, but this to me is spot on

      Should be a sticky then it can always be referred to
      I saw a dead fish on the pavement and thought "what did you expect?"
      There's no water round here stupid, should have stayed where it was wet

      Comment


        #4
        Great read and hopefully will shut some fans up both from Liverpool and other clubs, but no doubt they will just ignore it and keep ranting their made up bull ****.

        Comment


          #5
          It does read well and the point is well made. However, it speaks to one aspect of Rafa's managerial status - the amount of money he has had. People have pointed out that if Rafa had been able to get the players he wanted, when he wanted, we would be a lot closer than we are now - add Alves for the right-back revolving door, Villa as the second striker and Aguero out wide and we would be hugely superior to today's team. I'm not saying Rafa was genuinely in for Aguero, but it has been documented how he was hamstrung in the market.
          Having said that we should also look with what Rafa has done with the players he has brought in - Babel, Agger, Keane (mitigating circumstances perhaps) all leave Liverpool supporters shaking their heads with frustration. And money spent on Lucas, Dossena and Pennant is looking difficult to recuperate. So its a mixed bag. Rafa has had his ups and downs as our manager. I think there is more to come and I very much hope he's still our manager next year, with a more stable, less circus-like ownership behind him - but at the same time, we can't afford another off-season in the transfer-market like the one just past.
          I'm playing all the right notes. Not necessarily in the right order. I'll give you that, sunshine.

          Comment


            #6
            Who cares how much we spend? As long as we spend it sensibly.
            "Sir, it's me sir. Jennings sir."

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Jennings View Post
              Who cares how much we spend? As long as we spend it sensibly.
              Some of our "fans" and a whole lot of others are constantly bashing us for spending and not winning the P.L.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by rezaeos View Post
                Some of our "fans" and a whole lot of others are constantly bashing us for spending and not winning the P.L.
                I understand, but my point is simply that it isn't even worth rebutting.

                Turning football into financial discussions is for the weak minded. A footballing jedi like me prefers to take about the game.
                "Sir, it's me sir. Jennings sir."

                Comment


                  #9
                  Good read
                  'The tide is very much in our court now.'

                  Keegan

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Interesting - but fact is we should still turnover

                    Fulham
                    Stoke
                    Boro etc etc etc.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by rezaeos View Post
                      Some of our "fans" and a whole lot of others are constantly bashing us for spending and not winning the P.L.
                      To be fair, that's not true.

                      All they're doing is disputing the notion that Rafa hasnt had much money to spend, because clearly he has.

                      Originally posted by Icon View Post
                      Interesting - but fact is we should still turnover

                      Fulham
                      Stoke
                      Boro etc etc etc.


                      I fail to see how you need a £200m team to beat teams like that.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Icon View Post
                        Interesting - but fact is we should still turnover

                        Fulham
                        Stoke
                        Boro etc etc etc.
                        love rafa and want him to stay but he ****ed up plain and simple......keane didnt work out, rafa's purchase, babel hasnt worked this year, and torres has been injured with no cover.

                        Still should beat them mind......
                        _____________________________________

                        Weak willed, Wank or do they have a masterplan?

                        Think we have the answer..Slot!!

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by red g View Post
                          love rafa and want him to stay but he ****ed up plain and simple......keane didnt work out, rafa's purchase, babel hasnt worked this year, and torres has been injured with no cover.

                          Still should beat them mind......
                          Oi. You're meant to be a 'happy poster' arent you?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Craig_H View Post
                            Oi. You're meant to be a 'happy poster' arent you?
                            see i am smiling
                            _____________________________________

                            Weak willed, Wank or do they have a masterplan?

                            Think we have the answer..Slot!!

                            Comment


                              #15
                              He is spot on and ****ing Redknapp winds me up everytime I see his smug face on Sky, used to be little comments like "I know Stevie G isn't happy playing on the right" no-one goes on tv and says "Rooney is pissed off that Fergie keeps playing him out of position for a whole season"
                              Fergie picks his players, plays them where he likes and no-one bats an eyelid, we have uproar if the untouchables Gerrard or Carra are asked to play out of their preferred position, he was even suggest that Anelka should play a different role for the betterment of Chelsea buy woe betide Gerrard playing somewhere else for a game or two because it suits the tactics
                              The King was back for a short while. Long live The King.

                              Comment

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