What I think is needed for 4th place...

[Nick77]

18 points - no less. So that's either winning 6 & losing 1 of our last 7 games. Gonna be a tall order but not an impossibility. Obviously the toughest match is Chelski at home. The problem with that game is Chelski would probably need a win to keep up with Manure. I know we can't exactly throw the game but I would rather we came 5th or 6th & Manure didn't win the title than us coming 4th & Manure winning the title. **** I hate football these days ffs!
Anyway we should beat Sunderland, Fulham & West Ham at home, the problem is Birmingham, Burnley & Hull away. The last 2 are gonna be especially tough as they might be fighting relegation...

[red g]

this thread will automatically self destruct after sundays bore draw against sunderland

[PTP]

i think we need to win 6 of our 7 games and then if we get anything off chelsea it's a bonus as a bare minimum!!!

after that we need villa, spurs and city to all bottle it

[Vermilion]

i think we need to win 6 of our 7 games and then if we get anything off chelsea it's a bonus as a bare minimum!!!

after that we need villa, spurs and city to all bottle it

I just think it's obvious what we need...more than the others....who knows what'll happen...teams will probably take points we thought they wouldn't yet drop points at sides we thought they'd get all three.....all we know for sure is.....we need more than them when the final whistle of the final game is sounded.

It's torture going over what might happen, it's all just hope at the moment, far from being anything to get any sort of confidence up over just yet anyway, i can't see any way we'll get 4th, too many sides involved with better positions as we stand, can't see them all ****ing up, we aint that lucky.....hmmmmm...or are we ?

No! No! No! were not, i will not get my hopes up...nooooooo way, it can't be done, well mathematically yes it can...but no i don't see it..definately not..well not definately...but..no!

[Exiled_red]

I agree 18 points is a minimum although if we get 18 points it's still touch and go IMO

............Pl...PTS..Max
Spurs....30...55....79
City......30...53....77
Us........31...51....72
Villa......30...51....75

If we win all our games (and have a better goal difference) we need spurs to drop 7/24 points City 5/24 and Villa 3/24.

If we only get 18 points (and have a better goal difference) we need Spurs to drop 10/24 City 8/24 and Villa 6/24.

The first one looks quite likely the second I'm unsure about. The biggest problem for me though is that I'm not confident that we'll pick up even 18/21 points between now and the end of the season.

[calvoboy]

Remaining fixtures:

Spurs (55 points):

Portsmouth (H)
Sunderland (A)
Arsenal (H)
Chelsea (H)
Man Utd (A)
Bolton (H)
Man City (A)
Burnley (A)

Man City (53 points):

Wigan (H)
Burnley (A)
Birmingham (H)
Man Utd (H)
Arsenal (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Spurs (H)
West Ham (A)

Us (51 points):

Sunderland (H)
Birmingham (A)
Fulham (H)
West Ham (H)
Burnley (A)
Chelsea (H)
Hull (A)

Villa (51 points):

Chelsea (A)
Bolton (A)
Everton (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Hull (A)
Birmingham (H)
Man City (A)
Blackburn (H)

Win the other 6 and I reckon we will be OK to drop points against Chelsea. Looking at those fixtures I'm confident that all of the others will drop points between now and the end of the season.

[Chris]

We've got to get 21 points imo and even that might not do it. A lot of people seem to think its a given they'll drop points at home to Arsenal and Chelsea but im not so sure, they're more than capable of winning both let alone losing both.

We're going to be 7 behind tomorrow afternoon with 21 points left, its a big ask.

[Exiled_red]

Like I said, if we get 18 points, we need Spurs to drop 10 points, I think they could easily lose to Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd, but I'd fancy them to win all the others with the exception of City which could go either way which leaves it borderline.

City we'd need to drop 8 points they could lose to Man Utd and Arsenal with the Villa and Spurs games going either way.

Villa we need to lose 6 points, 3 at chelsea and Everton and City games could go either way.

None of these defeats are gaurenteed, there are a couple of derbies in there which they'll be deseperate to win to try and deny their rivals the title as well as clinch 4th spot themselves (Spurs-Arsenal and City-United) Those are by no means games they'll lose, add to that the fact Chelsea are on a wobble...

IMO it's likely to come down to the games against each other if the results go the wrong way we're in trouble

[red g]

you also have to remember......

that we have been there done that. the 3 pretenders might just bottle it.

not that it makes any difference as i believe that we will get 12 points maximum anyway.

[RedReet]

[carheex]

you also have to remember......

that we have been there done that. the 3 pretenders might just bottle it.

not that it makes any difference as i believe that we will get 12 points maximum anyway.

done "what" exactly? you make it sound like 4th place is some kind of major achievement!

Even IF we do get 4th place, that is a big step back from last year. If you were offered 4th place plus the europa league trophy at the start of this season would you have taken it? i don't think any of us would have been happy with that, yet here we are clinging on, hoping, working out ridiculous probabilities and relying on so many other clubs to do us a favour.

Big changes are needed at the club, sooner rather than later.

[red g]

done "what" exactly? you make it sound like 4th place is some kind of major achievement!

got 4th. i am not making it out to be any major acheivement, not sure how you work that out. But we have got CL places for the last few years whereas the other 3 havent. hence they may wobble.

[calvoboy]

Like I said, if we get 18 points, we need Spurs to drop 10 points, I think they could easily lose to Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd, but I'd fancy them to win all the others with the exception of City which could go either way which leaves it borderline.

City we'd need to drop 8 points they could lose to Man Utd and Arsenal with the Villa and Spurs games going either way.

Villa we need to lose 6 points, 3 at chelsea and Everton and City games could go either way.

None of these defeats are gaurenteed, there are a couple of derbies in there which they'll be deseperate to win to try and deny their rivals the title as well as clinch 4th spot themselves (Spurs-Arsenal and City-United) Those are by no means games they'll lose, add to that the fact Chelsea are on a wobble...

IMO it's likely to come down to the games against each other if the results go the wrong way we're in trouble

I agree - nothing is guaranteed, and on our day all four of us could potentially win every game. For City and Spurs not to drop the required points with the fixtures they've got would mean them going on a run that they haven't managed all season. They need to exceed expectations given their fixtures, whereas we just need to do what should be expected of us.

Personally, I'm confident that the other three will drop the points that would give us 4th place with 6 wins. I'm less confident about getting those 6 wins though!

[kingfunk]

Divine intervention.

[carheex]

got 4th. i am not making it out to be any major acheivement, not sure how you work that out. But we have got CL places for the last few years whereas the other 3 havent. hence they may wobble.

I'm not sure about that. Teams can "wobble" in cup finals or if the league title is at stake but I don't think it applies to the finishing in the giddy-heights of 4th place!

Besides, both spurs and city have got some quality experienced players who have won a lot of things at bigger clubs so "bottling 4th place" isn't really something we can rely on them for. I don't think the "pressure" of 4th place is going to phase the likes of viera, tevez, adebayor, crouch, cuducini, bridge, keane, woodgate etc etc. If anything, our players are more likely to buckle under the pressure due to the unrealsitic expectation levels of our club!