From the Guardian:
Guardian writers' prediction: 6th (NB: this is not necessarily Paul's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)
Last season's position: 7th
Odds to win the league: 14-1
Certainties are fewer than Gary Neville worshippers in Liverpool right now. But one thing that is clear amid all the transfer and takeover talk is that it is a good thing Rafael Benítez has gone.
Decent chap and all that, but would you have trusted the Spaniard to make optimal use of any transfer bounty that eventual new owners may brandish? No, his strike-rate in the transfer market is too haphazard for that.
Or, in the alternative scenario, would you have trusted him to regain his focus and avoid self-serving public politicking in the event of the club not being sold and the American owners remaining in place? No, there is no reason to suppose that would have happened (indeed, he might have clashed with new owners, and it would have been interesting to see how any dissent was dealt with if those new owners were the Chinese government).
Nor, if Benítez were still in place, is there any reason to imagine that the players who had begun to feel stifled by his control freakery would have re-emerged from the rut into which Liverpool slid last season.
So farewell Rafa, you'll always have Istanbul. And hello Roy Hodgson, a man who can be trusted to make the best of whatever conditions he has to work in.
Some Liverpool fans caterwauled inexcusably after Hodgson's appointment, snootily asking, "What has he ever won?" as if he'd demonstrated considerable cheek by accepting the job when José Mourinho was banging on the Anfield gates to get it instead.
Those fans are fools. Firstly, because neither Mourinho nor any other top manager would have taken the gig (though Sven-Goran Eriksson would), and secondly, because everything about Hodgson's long career suggests he will lift Liverpool. He has improved virtually every side he has handled, from turning relegation certainties Halmstad into shock Swedish champions to guiding Fulham to a record Premier League perch and last season's Europa League final.
Hodgson's great merit is that, unlike the too-clever-by-half Benítez, he is a master at making things simple. He identifies his players' qualities and devises a clear plan that reflects them. That sometimes means prioritising solidity, as was the case with Finland and often with Fulham too, or it can mean encouraging invention and enterprise, as with Switzerland, where he had canny attackers such as Stéphane Chapuisat and Alain Sutter, and produced a team who were top scorers in a World Cup qualifying group also featuring Italy, Portugal and Scotland.
Mostly, of course, it means doing both, and at Fulham he generally found that balance (although it is true that he did not fully repair their away form).
Improving a team starts with improving players, and that is a task at which Hodgson excels. Most of his Fulham side had flopped at other clubs but under Hodgson fulfilled their potential. Hodgson supervises all coaching himself and, because his sessions and aims make sense, players appreciate and buy into them. Players also enjoy working with him because, unlike Benítez, he treats them as adults rather than cogs.
Just as his intelligent words convinced Joe Cole to move to Anfield and Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres to repledge their allegiance, so his intelligent coaching can be expected to improve Glen Johnson's positional awareness, restore Emiliano Insúa's confidence if he stays and cure Daniel Agger's dilettante tendencies, ensuring that the Dane becomes more defensively diligent while continuing his elegant forward forays.
Liverpool were once renowned for their capacity to mount comebacks, but in the Premier League last season only Bolton mustered fewer points than them after falling behind – that, along with Liverpool's unusually high red-card count, shows how deep the disenchantment with Benítez had become and how important morale is. A Hodgson camp tends to be a happy one.
The one player that Hodgson has not been able to persuade to stay is Javier Mascherano. But surely that, too, is a good thing. Is the Argentinian really worthy of a starting place, given that Agger does not need a midfielder to scurry back and collect the ball from him, Cole has arrived and Alberto Aquilani seems fully fit? A central duo of Aquilani and Gerrard in front of the back four, with Cole behind Torres and Dirk Kuyt and Milan Jovanovic out wide, amounts to a pretty formidable first XI.
If there is the occasional need to deploy a destroyer, then Lucas Leiva can do that job better than is often recognised – the much-maligned Brazilian was the third most prolific tackler in the Premier League last season – and, as a bonus, offers more expansive passing and running than the limited Mascherano.
Hodgson did not use a specialist holder at Fulham – Jimmy Bullard and even Dickson Etuhu were always more versatile than that – so one wonders how hard he is really trying to keep Mascherano. Selling him for around £20m seems preferable.
Hodgson needs that money (or an injection from new owners) if Liverpool are to take a tilt at the title this season. Despite the promising displays of David Amoo and David Ngog in pre-season, the squad does not quite look strong enough to withstand a long Europa League run or injuries to, say, Gerrard, Pepe Reina or, of course, Torres, even if we cannot exclude the possibility that, under Hodgson's tutelage, Ryan Babel will finally release the magnificent dervish that lurks somewhere within him.
Chelsea and Arsenal seem better equipped to sustain challenges on both the domestic and European fronts. Even if Liverpool do not find a new owner to lavish riches upon them, however, they can, with Hodgson at the helm, expect to improve on last season, certainly finishing above Aston Villa, probably holding off Everton and maybe returning to the Champions League places.
Guardian writers' prediction: 6th (NB: this is not necessarily Paul's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)
Last season's position: 7th
Odds to win the league: 14-1
Certainties are fewer than Gary Neville worshippers in Liverpool right now. But one thing that is clear amid all the transfer and takeover talk is that it is a good thing Rafael Benítez has gone.
Decent chap and all that, but would you have trusted the Spaniard to make optimal use of any transfer bounty that eventual new owners may brandish? No, his strike-rate in the transfer market is too haphazard for that.
Or, in the alternative scenario, would you have trusted him to regain his focus and avoid self-serving public politicking in the event of the club not being sold and the American owners remaining in place? No, there is no reason to suppose that would have happened (indeed, he might have clashed with new owners, and it would have been interesting to see how any dissent was dealt with if those new owners were the Chinese government).
Nor, if Benítez were still in place, is there any reason to imagine that the players who had begun to feel stifled by his control freakery would have re-emerged from the rut into which Liverpool slid last season.
So farewell Rafa, you'll always have Istanbul. And hello Roy Hodgson, a man who can be trusted to make the best of whatever conditions he has to work in.
Some Liverpool fans caterwauled inexcusably after Hodgson's appointment, snootily asking, "What has he ever won?" as if he'd demonstrated considerable cheek by accepting the job when José Mourinho was banging on the Anfield gates to get it instead.
Those fans are fools. Firstly, because neither Mourinho nor any other top manager would have taken the gig (though Sven-Goran Eriksson would), and secondly, because everything about Hodgson's long career suggests he will lift Liverpool. He has improved virtually every side he has handled, from turning relegation certainties Halmstad into shock Swedish champions to guiding Fulham to a record Premier League perch and last season's Europa League final.
Hodgson's great merit is that, unlike the too-clever-by-half Benítez, he is a master at making things simple. He identifies his players' qualities and devises a clear plan that reflects them. That sometimes means prioritising solidity, as was the case with Finland and often with Fulham too, or it can mean encouraging invention and enterprise, as with Switzerland, where he had canny attackers such as Stéphane Chapuisat and Alain Sutter, and produced a team who were top scorers in a World Cup qualifying group also featuring Italy, Portugal and Scotland.
Mostly, of course, it means doing both, and at Fulham he generally found that balance (although it is true that he did not fully repair their away form).
Improving a team starts with improving players, and that is a task at which Hodgson excels. Most of his Fulham side had flopped at other clubs but under Hodgson fulfilled their potential. Hodgson supervises all coaching himself and, because his sessions and aims make sense, players appreciate and buy into them. Players also enjoy working with him because, unlike Benítez, he treats them as adults rather than cogs.
Just as his intelligent words convinced Joe Cole to move to Anfield and Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres to repledge their allegiance, so his intelligent coaching can be expected to improve Glen Johnson's positional awareness, restore Emiliano Insúa's confidence if he stays and cure Daniel Agger's dilettante tendencies, ensuring that the Dane becomes more defensively diligent while continuing his elegant forward forays.
Liverpool were once renowned for their capacity to mount comebacks, but in the Premier League last season only Bolton mustered fewer points than them after falling behind – that, along with Liverpool's unusually high red-card count, shows how deep the disenchantment with Benítez had become and how important morale is. A Hodgson camp tends to be a happy one.
The one player that Hodgson has not been able to persuade to stay is Javier Mascherano. But surely that, too, is a good thing. Is the Argentinian really worthy of a starting place, given that Agger does not need a midfielder to scurry back and collect the ball from him, Cole has arrived and Alberto Aquilani seems fully fit? A central duo of Aquilani and Gerrard in front of the back four, with Cole behind Torres and Dirk Kuyt and Milan Jovanovic out wide, amounts to a pretty formidable first XI.
If there is the occasional need to deploy a destroyer, then Lucas Leiva can do that job better than is often recognised – the much-maligned Brazilian was the third most prolific tackler in the Premier League last season – and, as a bonus, offers more expansive passing and running than the limited Mascherano.
Hodgson did not use a specialist holder at Fulham – Jimmy Bullard and even Dickson Etuhu were always more versatile than that – so one wonders how hard he is really trying to keep Mascherano. Selling him for around £20m seems preferable.
Hodgson needs that money (or an injection from new owners) if Liverpool are to take a tilt at the title this season. Despite the promising displays of David Amoo and David Ngog in pre-season, the squad does not quite look strong enough to withstand a long Europa League run or injuries to, say, Gerrard, Pepe Reina or, of course, Torres, even if we cannot exclude the possibility that, under Hodgson's tutelage, Ryan Babel will finally release the magnificent dervish that lurks somewhere within him.
Chelsea and Arsenal seem better equipped to sustain challenges on both the domestic and European fronts. Even if Liverpool do not find a new owner to lavish riches upon them, however, they can, with Hodgson at the helm, expect to improve on last season, certainly finishing above Aston Villa, probably holding off Everton and maybe returning to the Champions League places.
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