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    Crisis? — By Paul Tomkins

    CRISIS? PART ONE: Hypocrisy & Hodgson

    Apparently I’m a hypocrite, because I had faith in Rafa Benítez, but struggle to find it with Roy Hodgson. So, what is different from previous seasons? And am I wrong to have a different attitude to the respective managers?

    Believe me, I’d rather be talking about a new, successful Liverpool manager, but everywhere I turn I hear Benítez’s name being assigned to the rapid decline of the club, and Roy being excused his own shortcomings.

    I wrote this piece in reply to all those who continue to blame Rafa for the financial woes, including a leveraged-buyout chancer. But Tom Hicks isn’t the only one blaming Rafa.

    The other week Clive Tyldsley said that Liverpool didn’t even really win either of the trophies Rafa is credited with, because both games were only drawn after extra-time. Ergo, Rafa wasn’t that good after all. (I’m looking forward to seeing the United-supporting Tyldsley tell Ferguson that his second European Cup is null and void.)

    Howard Wilkinson recently said that Torres was burnt out by Benítez: “He was always playing, Benitez just wouldn’t leave him out.”

    (Yes, Howard – that’s why there was never uproar on those occasions when he did rest him, or the many occasions where he’d take him off after 70 minutes to protect his muscles, or the occasions he was only a sub when returning from injury; and also ignoring that most of the injuries tended to occur on international duty, too. I really must get a toke on Wilko’s crack pipe.)

    Harry Redknapp came out in sympathy for Gillett and Hicks, wondering what they’d done wrong. (Thankfully, David Prentice at the Echo answered that one.) No offence Harry, but why not talk about the clubs you left that subsequently went into administration?

    Add to these countless TV and newspaper opinions blurting out, one after another, that “it’s all Rafa’s fault”, like squealing schoolchildren trying to pin the blame on anyone who might be a sucker for a caning. Blame the foreign kid. It’s what bullies do.

    While Rafa took some deserved criticism at times last season, I felt he’d copped his fair share (if not more), and that it would end when he was dismissed from his duties.

    But no, it seems he has to cop for the shortcomings of Roy Hodgson too, and more alarmingly, the horrendous mismanagement of the club higher up. Every last thing has been blamed on the Spaniard. I came to accept that the time was probably right for Rafa to move on, given the politics at the club, but I was never convinced that Roy Hodgson was the man to replace him.

    It’s not about wanting Rafa back, but moving on in the right way, not the wrong way.

    Hypocrisy

    The reaction to this recent piece was interesting to note. Roughly a third thought it was bang-on the money; a further third thought I had gone too easy on Roy, and that he was a waste of space who had to go; while the remaining third were up outraged at my ‘hypocrisy’ – up in arms like Mary Whitehouse rewinding and re-watching a Peter North video, just to get annoyed all over again.

    This is the lot of the football writer. Sometimes I can say something on Twitter and get abuse from people who think I only say blindly positive things, and replies from those who call me a hypocrite for treating Roy 100% differently to Rafa – all in reply to the same original comment.

    Perhaps I am a hypocrite; we all inadvertently contradict ourselves from time to time.

    It seems that those who spend their time ranting about what I say have got their knickers in a twist because I haven’t defended Roy to the extent I defended Rafa. Well, aside from one or two changes of opinion (which we are allowed to have, so long as we don’t change back and forth on a whim), there are some valid reasons for this.

    First, people compare my current blogging to my work I used to produce for the official Liverpool site. People who can’t distinguish between the difference required in approach and tone are not intelligent enough to debate with.

    (I recall with great humour one angry person saying something last year, along the lines of “if Rafa was replaced by Guus Hiddink, that Tomkins would be saying that the new man’s a world-class manager and defending him to the hilt”. I remember laughing, thinking that of course I’d defend a world-class manager! If the person had said Steve Bruce, I would have taken exception. In many ways, he proved my point. You defend those who are the best around, and have concerns about those who are not.)

    Regular readers will know that, contrary to popular belief, I made criticisms of Rafa on my blog, and in my books, and even to him directly. But of course my overall stance was one of positivity, because I understood his thinking and, on the whole, believed in his methods.

    And this comes back to another problem with Roy, which is one that the Kop as a whole seems to be struggling with.

    When Gérard Houllier was appointed, he arrived with a strong reputation; associated (not that he was slow to tell us) with France’s World Cup success. For a few years, it seemed merited. To me, his appointment made sense, and he was what was needed at the time, even if I came to hate his tactics in later years.

    When Rafa arrived, he’d just won two La Liga titles in three seasons, plus the Uefa Cup. (Someone tried to tell me the other week that he ‘left a shambles at Valencia’; in his final season they won a league and cup double. Some shambles. The shambles, as the players who wanted him out later admitted, only happened once he left, because he was not there anymore.)

    Along with José Mourinho, Rafa was the hot ticket in 2004; but it was achieved at the sharp end of football. This was a man taking on Barcelona and Real Madrid with a smaller club (but not a tiny club, and not a small-club mentality), and winning league titles.

    By contrast, when Roy arrived, his team had just finished 12th, and scored only 39 league goals. They had a great run in the Uefa Cup – but cup runs involve a greater element of luck than a league season. Steve McLaren took Boro to the same final, but as unfairly mocked as he is, he was patently out of his depth under that England umbrella. Not a bad manager; just not the right manager. (Rafa also enjoyed cup success, but he averaged 72 points a season in his six years, seven more than the man he replaced: overall, progress.)

    And this brings me back to my problem with the appointment of Roy in the first place: namely that my research – and it’s a lot of research – shows virtually no success stories when it comes to ‘promoting’ managers who’ve done well at small clubs to the really big jobs.

    Now, each case must be judged on its own merits, because someone can always prove the exception; but the trend is clear. There is an entire chapter dedicated to this phenomenon in Pay As You Play. (Around the time of its release I will make that the one free sample for people to read, to show what I’m talking about.)

    Now, I don’t know if sacking Roy or keeping Roy is the answer. Amid myriad concerns, I cannot state either way with any certainty. I thought he was the wrong man in the summer, but it’s not as easy to find the right manager in October.

    I do know, however, that the football has been universally dire, and that even though it’s ‘just’ eight games, the league position is shocking

    I do know, however, that none of my doubts about appointing him have been assuaged. (These doubts were not part of any agenda; I made my feelings known before he was appointed, saying that he was in no way a bad manager, just one who seemed unsuited to this particular job. Having said that, I did at least expect a honeymoon period before talk of a divorce. I also expected a positive ‘bounce’ after NESV’s takeover.)

    I’ve also made it clear that the squad has been worn away by too many sales, and that this is not necessarily Roy or Rafa’s fault. I’ve been at pains to say how difficult the job was with the pressure and expectations, and those god-awful owners. Indeed, call me a hypocrite all you want, but unlike those now leaping on the bandwagon, I’ve been saying this for three years, ever since Gillett and Hicks showed their true colours with ‘Klinsmangate’.

    Whatever the travails, and whatever the holes in the squad, this is a team that is woefully underperforming give the talent that remains.

    Rafa was sacked, according to the club, for football reasons. I was told, time and time again by Rafa’s critics, in emails, Tweets, etc, and indirectly via the media, that 7th wasn’t good enough; that 7th was the result of him mistreating players and not having the passion to succeed. The squad was too good to be 7th,

    Even last season’s run to Rafa’s 4th European semi-final in six seasons (with the two semis that were lost only being resolved in extra-time) wasn’t good enough; and while I felt Rafa was harshly treated, I did not make the argument that the Europa ‘success’ was a big deal.

    Because, let’s face it, it really didn’t feel like a big deal (and nor does our European form this season). Last season, that cup run was a mild distraction from a difficult league campaign. A cup semi was of little consolation.

    People keep reminding me that we were as dire at Portsmouth and Wolves last season as we’ve been this season. That’s hard to argue with. But those were low points from the season; they came before and after some excellent displays – even if there weren’t as many excellent displays as in previous seasons. They weren’t happening every single week.

    The trouble this season is the lack of even one decent league performance. The second-half against Arsenal was full of character, but that aside, the football has been terrible.

    Last year, Liverpool were rubbish perhaps 30% of the time; this season, it’s arguably been 100% of the time. And for the life of me I can’t recall Liverpool being totally outplayed, and beaten, by a promoted side at Anfield since the Houllier days. Or failing to even contest a derby under Rafa Benítez, whose record in against Everton was superb.

    Liverpool went 2-0 down to Hull a couple of seasons back, but a draw was quickly rescued, and it could have been 5-2 to the Reds by half-time. Some face was saved. There were tactics used that day that were beyond sending the big lump up front.

    When both Houllier and Benítez arrived, there were quickly signs of progress. There were also setbacks. But this season has been setback after setback on the pitch. Not all are Roy’s fault. Some are. And as manager, he’s responsible for getting performances out of 20 international footballers.

    Let’s remember that I have always maintained that two consecutively poor seasons are what I consider failure for an established manager; this is in my first book, from 2005. Houllier left a team that won just 16 out of 38 league games in his final season – two fewer than last season – and racked up 60 points.

    One key difference last season was the emergence of stronger rivals. And the other difference was that just a season earlier, Liverpool had won 86 points; a the penultimate year for Houllier was just 65.

    When Rafa arrived in 2004, the squad cost more (in current money) than it did last season.

    He was new to English football, new to England, and new to the English language.

    He needed time to settle in.

    When the Reds lost in the FA Cup, he was accused of not understanding English football. And at times, in some away games, to some degree it showed.

    But there were still some great results, and stunning performances. I was awestruck at Anfield in a 3-0 demolition of Norwich thanks to this new playmaker called Xabi Alonso and a mercurial talent named Luis Garcia.

    In mid-January 2005 Liverpool were in crisis. Similar kind of stuff to now: Radio Five Live ‘crisis’ debate, and so on. The Reds had lost away at Championship Burnley, 1-0, in the FA Cup. Go and find the old newspapers; it was a sensation.

    Of course, the Reds, under this new foreign manager, were still 5th in the league at the time, and in the knockout stages of the Champions League; an improvement on the club’s previous showing, in 2002/03.

    And the Reds were also in the Carling Cup semi-final. Yes, it was further into the season (23 games), but let’s observe the radical difference in levels there. Rafa was taken apart for a far better start than this. And no-one was saying “yeah, but he was left a weak squad”. It was all pinned on him.

    I never had to defend Rafa winning only one of the first eight league games, or being 19th at this – or any – stage of a season. I never had to defend Rafa going out of a cup at home to a team more than one division below, let alone three. So how does that make me a hypocrite? I’d only be a hypocrite if I criticised Roy for the same kind of start I excused in Rafa’s case. This, clearly, is far worse.

    Roy has had problems and pressure to deal with; then again, a lot of this stuff isn’t new.

    Before the Champions League game away at Marseilles in late 2007, Rafa needed to win to save his job; he was going to be replaced with Jurgen Klinsmann, who’d been sought behind the manager’s back – just months after the second Champions League Final in three seasons.

    That’s pressure, too. The Reds won 4-0, taking the French team apart on their own soil. Time and time again he was crucified by the media, and almost every time the Reds turned things around on the pitch. Rafa had at least as much negative press last season as Roy has had this, if not far more – all at points when things were a lot better than they now are.

    But there’s also a key distinction between a manager who has proved that he can punch above his weight at the top end of a major league and in Europe’s premier competition for this club (as Rafa did on a number of seasons), and one who has no prior record of success in this particular job to refer back to.

    My support for Rafa became almost unequivocal in Istanbul, although I saw signs of progress that whole season (such as coming back from a half-time deficit for the first time in five years, first against Manchester City, in the opening home game, then to win 4-2 at Fulham from 2-0 down, despite being down to ten men; followed in November by deservedly beating reigning ‘Invincible’ Champions Arsenal 2-1 at Anfield).

    But I wasn’t 100% convinced until he worked that particular miracle; and even then, I never felt convinced that we’d get close to winning the league (it seemed a million miles away in 2004).

    He then followed it with the club’s best two points tallies since the ‘80s. But now all we hear is that there was a total lack of progress under Benítez? Well, the ride dipped at the end; but let’s not ignore five years of soaring.

    As was pointed out to me by Fulham writer Richard Allen, their fans, and their players, had their miracle with Roy when escaping relegation on the final day of the season, coming back Istanbul-style to score three vital goals at Manchester City. That gave the club belief.

    But that doesn’t necessarily transfer to Liverpool, does it? That’s Fulham’s miracle, not ours. (And it only really relates to us if we remain down there until May, heaven forbid; or if a different kind of miracle is pulled off.)

    Instead, so far it’s been the reverse of a miracle: a nightmare.

    And instead of Roy getting his share of criticism from the majority of media outlets, it’s Rafa who continues to get a pummelling.

    That bothers me, because Rafa had his share of the blame last season. He was also sacked with the statement that the club needs to get right back into the top four, “where it belongs”. My view was always that top six is more realistic. Neither looks remotely possible right now; the football needs to improve a hell of a lot first.

    Hypocrite or not, I enjoyed Rafa’s style of football (although at times last season it was poor). Like any team, Liverpool could have struggles, but top scoring in the Premier League just two seasons ago was no mean feat, given that the squad was not within touching distance of the clubs the Reds were competing with. Yes, it could be tactical, and sometimes even dour, but on the whole it was exciting more often than not.

    But it’s harder for me now, as I have a personal dislike of the Allen Wade style of football beloved of men like Hodgson, Houllier and Eriksson. If it’s working, it’s fine; but when it doesn’t, it offers little redemption as a spectacle, and provides opponents with the chance to dominate possession and boss games. I understand the benefits of the system, but I’m not sure I get how it’s meant to work at Liverpool in 2010, particularly at home to lesser teams.

    I accept that a side can’t be chock-full of skilful players; you need your grafters, and they were there over the past six seasons, too. But for me, a shift from players like Aquilani, Agger, Insua and Babel – even if they weren’t always used – to Konchesky, Skrtel, Poulsen and the promising Meireles – leaves less creativity overall. (Cole should replace Benayoun fairly equally, though has yet to match the Israeli’s output.)

    Surely that’s clear? Even worse, the Reds aren’t even defending as well, despite the more destructive balance to the side. It’s not working in any single area, and that’s my concern. If we were grinding out results, fine; but we’re just grinding our way to limp defeats.

    Roy had a team at Blackburn that won only one of the first 14 games of 1998/99; he was sacked with them 20th. They revived a fraction after he went, but not enough – relegated in 19th, where the Reds currently sit.

    That was the most expensive team to be relegated in the Premier League era (source: Pay As You Play). The team was the 5th-most expensive in the division that year – roughly the same as this Liverpool side. Food for thought?

    The real hypocrite?

    If you want to talk about hypocrites, how about Henry Winter? This time last year, Liverpool were suffering a poor start – but nowhere near as poor as this. The Reds were 3rd after seven games, 5th after eight games, 8th after nine games, 5th after 10 games. After seven games the Reds were just three points off the top; after 7 games this season it was 12 points. (Currently it’s 13.)

    In 2009, Winter attacked Rafa inhuman approach, bringing up his decision to stay in Japan with Liverpool in 2005 for the World Club Championship final rather than rush home following his father’s death.

    And yet this autumn, Tony Pulis – perhaps because he’s not a foreigner – was lauded by the same journalist for making the very same decision; Pulis was showing his commitment to Stoke, Benítez was cold and uncaring.

    None of this is to say that Benítez’s inter-personal skills weren’t at times lacking. Sometimes they were. But isn’t that a bit of a cruel comparison?

    Before the latest defeat against Everton, Winter was saying that the “hounds” have been unleashed on Roy; unfair for such a new manager, he says.

    He might have a point on whether it’s too early to criticise to such a degree (though the relegation zone is a new experience for LFC fans), but surely it’s at least as bad to do so when the manager has previously won you the European Cup and, only months earlier, overseen the best league season in the club’s recent history?

    That’s every bit as premature as this, if not far more premature. At least Rafa had shown he could win trophies for Liverpool and take a title race down to the wire in May.

    However critical I am of Roy, getting personal like Winter did there is a low blow I would never dare strike. Bringing a reaction the death of a manager’s loved one into your football criticism? For me, that’s a red card offence.

    Time Is Up?

    I have always preached that managers deserve time. But there comes a point when you start to wonder if keeping him will only cause more problems. If he wasn’t right to start with, will time change that?

    My views remain unchanged, in that I won’t call for Roy Hodgson to be dismissed; but he has to prove that he can adapt to life at a club like Liverpool, or face the consequences. And with every passing non-performance and a failure to win, he is eating away at whatever time he has left. At 63 he was never going to be a long-term appointment, but right now, Christmas seems a million months away.

    Part one
    Stop the cyberhate


    from now on I will skip talking about our finances. That is a promise and will save myself from looking like a

    Susan Black

    #2
    I knew, just KNEW, as i scrolled down and down, that it HAD to be Tomkins

    Comment


      #3
      CRISIS? PART TWO: Homesickness

      I knew my time was up on the official Liverpool site when they chose to run this Paul Hayward piece not in the Media section, but as an editorial. As much as I like the people who run the site – honest, intelligent people doing their job (as requested) – I was depressed at how such nonsense could be legitimised. It went against everything I’d spent so long arguing in favour of. By that stage I was finding it hard to recognise the club I’d happy to been associated with since 2005, but less comfortably since 2007.

      “By the end of the Rafael Benítez reign one of the game’s great clubs had adopted a kind of mechanical pragmatism designed to destroy the opposition’s plans rather than impose their own.”

      “Anfield’s regulars were suffering but were too loyal to complain. They filed out through the Shankly Gates bored. It was inimical to Liverpool’s followers to see their heroes win games by calculation alone. They revered Benítez for the 2005 Champions League win in Istanbul but could recognise the creeping joylessness of his football and his apparent inability to derive any pleasure from a goal.”

      “Hodgson’s Liverpool will get back on the front foot. They will assert their pedigree. Nullifying the opposition will not be their religion. This is the first step out of the darkness for a side who finished seventh in the Premier League and now face a second Europa League campaign.”

      Because, the day before, I’d written this piece pulling it apart. The Guardian is my favourite paper (I worked on the marketing side of things for the paper in the ’90s), and has some great football writers. But few writers get as much wrong about Liverpool as Paul Hayward.

      Not only was the criticism of Benítez unnecessary to include on the official site, but the piece had no basis in reality. Hodgson and attacking football? – as well as he’d done in certain jobs, going on the front foot was never part of it. Go check the amount of goals his teams scored, and the many, many draws they would rack up (the story of his time at Inter Milan, too.)

      Too many bored fans filing out through the Shankly Gates? – were we now forgetting the four Champions League quarter-finals in five seasons; three semis in four; two finals in three? Or the two best league seasons in terms of points won in 20 years? Last season was fairly grim, but Hayward’s piece was bunkum.

      Liverpool averaged 1.7 points a game last season. So far this season, it’s 0.8. Progress? Is one win in eight really going on the front foot? A bit of research and Hayward might have seen the likelihood of this coming; I certainly did.

      Take a look at this graphic from the Daily Mail, after Liverpool’s first seven games this season. Which manager’s stats suggests ‘mechanical pragmatism’?



      Add the Everton game to that graphic, and it only gets worse.

      Home Comfort

      It always baffled me that a major criticism of Liverpool under Benítez was a failure to break down teams at home. His side never won fewer than 12 league games at Anfield each season, and overall averaged 13 wins out of 19.

      In total, only nine home games were lost under Rafa: 1.5 a season. In his middle four years, only three were lost in total.

      Now I hear Danny Murphy (who’s not bitter) saying that the English heart was ripped out and replaced with a Spanish core – as if that’s a bad thing these days! Well, now the English are back. How’s it working out?

      What was this English core that was torn out in 2004? And presumably, things were much better then?

      Well, the Reds won an average of 10.8 games per season at Anfield under Houllier; more than two fewer each year than under his successor. In his final two seasons, Houllier’s team won just 9 and 10 respectively. (Compared to 12 and 13 in Benítez’s final two.)

      Under Evans it was 12.5 wins per season at Anfield; better than Houllier, worse than Benítez (one of Evans’ seasons had 21 home games, not 19).

      But it’s the losses that jump out: 11 in four seasons under Evans, 2.75 per season. With Houllier it jumps to 3.1 home defeats each year, more than twice as many as under Benítez.

      Surprisingly, Liverpool actually won a good number of home league games under Souness (13 in each of his two full seasons), but lost 3.5 on average (3 and 4). And of course, these were 21-game seasons at Anfield, so again, it’s worse than Benítez’s record.

      Indeed, the Spaniard’s win-rate at home was more-or-less identical to that of Kenny Dalglish when allowing for the extra games.

      Liverpool’s record away from Anfield has been patchy ever since Dalglish left, with a pathetic three victories in each of Souness’ first two seasons (21 games). That was what caused the great collapse.

      It’s perhaps to be expected to hear Mark Lawrenson say that the side Benítez left was worse than the Souness era, but as ever with Lawro, it doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. (Let’s also remember that Liverpool had the most expensive squad in the country under Souness. Last season, Liverpool’s squad didn’t even cost 50% of any of three of the squads of teams that finished above them.)

      Since Souness’ days the record for away wins has dropped as low as five under each manager (most with 19 games played, not 21), including last year: Liverpool’s clear problem in 2009/10.

      By contrast, the number of away wins has only gone into double figures on three occasions: 12 in 2001/02 under Houllier/Thompson; 10 in 2005/06 under Benítez; and a club-record 13 in 2008/09, also under the Spaniard. (To compare, in the ‘80s it was mostly between 8-10 away wins a season, often with 21 away games.)

      What does all this prove? Well, I’m not sure.

      But one thing that seems apparent to me – as has done since his appointment – is that Roy Hodgson sets up in a very similar style to Gérard Houllier: the man with the worst home record in Liverpool’s recent history, and the only manager since the days before Bill Shankly to win less than ten home games in a season (2002/03; before that, it was 1954/55).

      The point, you ask? Well, so far this season Liverpool have played four games at Anfield, three of which were home-bankers (and the other, Arsenal, was a home win more often than not under Benítez.) Now, even home-bankers turn into draws sometimes; but on the whole, you’ll win them most times.

      The result from these four games? One win, two draws and a defeat. Early days, yes. But a 25% win ratio, even at this stage, is hugely concerning. Under Benítez, the average was 72% of home league matches won, rising as high as 83% one season, and dipping no lower than 67%.

      With Liverpool’s away form so poor, and Hodgson having only won a couple of away league games in two-and-a-quarter seasons, home form is vital.

      A lot was made of the tough start Liverpool had, and to a degree that was true; Arsenal, Man City and Man United were definite tough ones. But after eight games – four at home, four away – and having also faced West Brom, Sunderland, Birmingham and Blackpool, six points is a terrible return.

      Four games may not be a statistically significant sample, but this article does show that abject home form was definitely not something Roy Hodgson inherited. Losing to a promoted side for the first time since the days of Houllier is also concerning.

      In the terrible season that everyone labelled 2009/10 (and it was pretty grim), only Arsenal, Chelsea and Aston Villa – top sides – left Anfield with the full spoils.

      This year, Blackpool have not only won, but won by dominating the Reds; unthinkable, even during the poor spells of the past six years. Sunderland, thrashed 3-0 last season (and it was a thrashing; even Steve Bruce said so), were unfortunate to only draw 2-2 this time.

      Has that much changed in terms of the quality of the squad in a few months? And if it has – with three or four of the XI each week Roy’s own signings – should that still be blamed on Rafa?

      One player Roy has lost is Mascherano; but “he’s not needed at home”, people said. But of course, his reading of the game, pace and tackling allowed the full-backs more freedom, and thus the pitch could be opened up. But even so, you’d still think his main benefit was against teams that needed stopping, not ones that were there to be beaten.

      So Liverpool need more English pride, and must move away from calculating football? Sorry, but that stacks up as xenophobic bull****, wrapped in bitterness.



      Part two
      Stop the cyberhate


      from now on I will skip talking about our finances. That is a promise and will save myself from looking like a

      Susan Black

      Comment


        #4
        Wow.

        Nothing you've missed out Paul? You know, just checking there's nothing else that you wanted to say that you'd forgotten to include.
        Trey Nyoni: countdown to stardom- 2 years 1year 0.5 years

        Comment


          #5
          I wonder what would have happened if Tomkins would have done the update's in the EST1892 LFC in Court Thread instead of the usual suspects

          Comment


            #6
            CRISIS? PART THREE: Flawed Transfer Policy?

            At Fulham, Roy Hodgson had a lot of success reviving the fading fortunes of players like Damien Duff, Danny Murphy and Aaron Hughes. Buying someone like Duff was a masterstroke for such a club.

            But what he’s trying to do at Liverpool reminds me a little of how Souness tried to transfer his success at Rangers to Anfield; albeit in a different way.

            Souness took good English-league players to Ibrox (Terry Butcher, Trevor Steven, Gary Stevens), and it worked wonders.

            But when he tried to reverse that (Mark Walters, Istvan Kozma), it was a disaster – because he was buying players who were excelling in an easier environment. Once they were put up against better players, their confidence dropped, and their relative lack of ability exposed.

            Now, if Roy’s aim was repeat his Fulham trick with Christian Poulsen – an ageing, fading force – then there’s a big snag. Players like Poulsen and Duff often need to rehabilitate out of the spotlight. Duff had fallen away a bit after a great start at Chelsea, and flopped at Newcastle. Therefore, Fulham was a lower pressure environment. And no-one was expecting much from him. He was now a big fish in a small pond, rather than vice versa.

            While you can never rule it out, it’s far, far harder to find lost form at a club like Liverpool. Because every mistake is magnified; every awful display is a weight around the neck for the next game. Careers tend to be revived by dropping a level – either in expectation, or to a less-intense league. You don’t often revive your fading fortunes at a club like Liverpool or Manchester United. It’s too much pressure.

            Poulsen has ‘extra-big-club’ experience at Juventus; unfortunately, he was not a success there, so you cannot say that he had proved he could cope in the spotlight. So while I can see some of the logic – he was once a good player – he also looks painfully slow, and the Premier League is unforgiving to those who lack pace (unless you’re as gifted as Xabi Alonso, and can always find time and space).

            If you can pull it off, it often makes the most sense to buy a player with problems (the Nottingham Forest approach outlined in Soccernomics), but it’s easier said than done to revive a career.

            (Of interest is that Forest built success on the back of rescuing players, but never maintained that success beyond the initial burst; although of course, winning the league title and back-to-back European Cups is nigh-on impossible for such a club to maintain. But it worked when Forest were an unfashionable side; once they were fashionable, it stopped.)

            Another problem is if the player is at the wrong end of his career; ‘let them lose their legs on someone else’s pitch’ was Bob Paisley’s motto.

            Back then, of course, Liverpool were not desperately scrabbling around for bargains. At times, Benítez and Hodgson have been forced into such moves, because of debt placed on the club.

            However, look at many of Bill Shankly’s best signings and they were in their early-to-mid-20s. Paisley often did the same. So did Benítez. (And though not monumental fees, there are reasons to believe Poulsen and Konchesky were overpriced; more on that later.)

            Maybe it’s similar with Joe Cole, although unlike Poulsen, you’d think he has enough about him to be marginally effective at worst, and at best, rediscover the promise that marked him out as a real prodigy.

            I think we know that Cole is used to pressure, and despite massive wages, the lack of a transfer fee made it a gamble worth taking. But he’s another player who was picked up at a time when his confidence wasn’t sky-high. If you can reinstate it, great. If you can’t, you just get more of the same. So far, bar the odd flash of brilliance, Cole has been on the edge of games, whether on the wing or in the hole.

            And unlike Poulsen, at least Paul Konchesky was not in a career trough, but again, at 29, has limited shelf-life for a fee of almost £5m. The problem in his case is one of adjusting to life at a big club. Used to the league? Tick. Used to the manager’s ideas? Tick. But of the necessary quality and experience? Undetermined. Lee Dixon isn’t convinced.

            In fairness to Roy, it’s natural for managers to go back for players they’ve worked with before, or to plunder leagues they’re familiar with. But that’s more of a problem when the clubs they managed were so good.

            Noted scout and football analyst Tor-Kristian Karlsen (the man who brought Lucio, amongst others, to Europe) shares my concerns.

            He feels that Hodgson – who managed in Karlsen’s native Scandinavia for many seasons – has a narrow outlook to scouting, and that his style of management is more suited to smaller clubs or lower-pressure leagues. He also worries that he’s more likely to scout the weaker north European countries.

            Now, I have never denied that Rafa’s struggles last season were partly down to his recent purchases, but he spent money trying to introduce flair to the side, especially at full-back (for a more progressive approach).

            Also, the fact that Aquilani was hunted by Juventus – for whom he’s shining – shows that this was a pedigree player rather than a chimera; for me, one to stick with while adapting, like Pires, than consistently fail to deliver, like Cheyrou. He may not have been 100% suited to English football, but he showed real creativity in the second half of last season, once finally fit.

            Age Concern

            I have to hark back to a point I made in August: the age of the players being sought, and how, as with tactics, it strikes me as a backwards step.

            The greatest thing about Benítez’s legacy was how many talented purchases were still relatively young: Reina, Torres, Agger, Mascherano, Johnson and Skrtel.

            I made the point a while ago that the problem with what Benítez inherited from Houllier was that Hyypia, Hamann, Babbel and Henchoz were all 30/31. So his good players had little shelf-life, and little sell-on value to revamp the squad.

            Houllier also left players like Cissé (who cost £25m in today’s money), and the likes of Cheyrou, Diouf and Diao. So his successful older purchases were too old to either cash in or rely on for more than a couple of years, and his younger ones were horrendously over-priced and just not good enough. Cheyrou and Diao were given away in the end, having cost around £20m in today’s money.

            Not that Benítez didn’t have his flops; but resale value was always crucial. He understood it. Flops came and went, but they raised the money that bought the successes. And until the money dried up (as much as £15m recouped on Robbie Keane, none of it seen by a Liverpool manager), he was able to constantly upgrade: Sissoko to Mascherano, Bellamy to Torres, Josemi to Arbeloa.

            He may not have always got the players right (few managers do better than 50%), but the policy was sound.

            I said at the time that Benítez overspent on Keane, even though he was proven in the Premier League.

            Even so, £5m for Poulsen seems even more foolish. Much of the Keane money was recouped (and even more will be if Keane remains at Spurs). Poulsen will lose the club a greater percentage of his fee.



            I fear the same applies to Konchesky, at 29, who is valued the same as Insua; in two years’ time, Insua will be a more experienced player, and still young, at 23. He’ll surely be worth at least what he is now. Konchesky will be 31, and worth next-to-nothing.

            Over the course of Premier League history, prices for a player aged 29 and 30 are 40 per cent lower than one aged 28. (Source: our TPI research.)

            However, as with a new car whose value depreciates once driven off the forecourt, the value drops rapidly; the average for a 31-year-old is less than half that of a man 12 months younger. By 32 you’re almost giving them away. Poulsen will turn 31 this winter.

            Compare him with the Greek.

            Kyrgiakos (£1.5m) scared the life out of me in some of his early displays, but it didn’t take long to look a decent back-up, and in truth, put in some excellent displays last season. It’s typically crass to include him as a prime example of the ‘dross’ Rafa left, because he was cheap and not a household name. For his age, £1.5m was a sensible price. £5m would have been crazy.

            The idea that Kyrgiakos and Ngog were mistakes in a rubbish squad makes little sense, when one is adequate back-up and the other is clearly an up-and-coming talent. You can add the £1m paid for Insua to those two and still get Poulsen’s fee, and have three players with an average age of 24, instead of one almost 31. So it’s not like Roy has no part to play in the bad start to the season.

            Why Overhauling Is Dangerous

            Regular readers will also know my theory that, by and large, you have to buy four players to land two good ones. Obviously this is a law of averages thing, but since the remarkable 1987 it’s hard to think of a calendar year where a Liverpool manager got close to a 100% success rate. Indeed, the same applies to all managers. This is why rebuilding a squad in dramatic fashion can often be catastrophic; you have to make sure you’re not easily letting go talent, because you will probably regret it.

            Hodgson came in, and immediately put four of his own players into the outfield ten.

            Some signings will flop, and some will succeed. Having looked at the records of men like Benítez, Wenger and Ferguson, a 50-50 split seems about right.

            The successes will vary in the level of their brilliance, and the flops will range from mediocre to awful, but if you had to say ‘good buy’ or ‘bad buy’, you’d probably find as many going into each category. (And while expensive players flop, what paying extra gives you, instead of a guarantee, is an increased likelihood of making a big impact.)

            Like Souness, I seems that Roy has tried to do too much too soon to the first XI, and bought in the wrong manner. Raul Meireles looks like he could prove to be a class act; but too many question marks remain about the fitness of Fabio Aurelio, the ‘has he still got it?’ of Cole, and the quality of Konchesky, Poulsen and Brad Jones. None of these players has a long shelf-life. It was quick-fix spending, and it has resulted in only further breaking things. It’s early days, but none of Roy’s signings has time on his side. At the moment, neither does he.

            Liverpool are now without Mascherano, Benayoun, Aquilani and Insua; not all Roy’s fault, certainly, but the replacements have not proved to be as good, and have contributed to the worst start in living memory. Benítez left those players; but Roy couldn’t convince Mascherano and Benayoun to stay, and opted to not have Insua and Aquilani as part of his squad.

            Not only have Roy’s tactics not worked, but his own signings have added little. Compare and contrast to the impact made by Alonso and Garcia, two players totally new to English football in 2004, under a foreign manager who supposedly didn’t understand English football. Rafa had the right idea, but sometimes bought the wrong players. I’m yet to be convinced that Roy has the right idea.

            Part three
            Stop the cyberhate


            from now on I will skip talking about our finances. That is a promise and will save myself from looking like a

            Susan Black

            Comment


              #7
              Is this a book that you're reproducing here?
              Trey Nyoni: countdown to stardom- 2 years 1year 0.5 years

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Operation View Post
                Is this a book that you're reproducing here?

                Comment


                  #9
                  It's a bit long.
                  Thanks very much for being ‘This Mornings’ Farmer’

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Arn, can you sum it up in about 3 sentences mate?
                    Trey Nyoni: countdown to stardom- 2 years 1year 0.5 years

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Summary please

                      Warranted this time I think you'll find.
                      Hello mert.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Operation View Post
                        Arn, can you sum it up in about 3 sentences mate?
                        The media and danperkins talk a lot of ****.

                        Rafa improved the squad every year as long as he got money but he made mistakes as every manager do.

                        Roy is a total failure so far.
                        Stop the cyberhate


                        from now on I will skip talking about our finances. That is a promise and will save myself from looking like a

                        Susan Black

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Willo View Post
                          Summary please

                          Warranted this time I think you'll find.
                          Roys a woeful manager

                          Poulsen is ****

                          Konchesky is just as bad
                          My kebab comes with chilli sauce

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Willo View Post
                            Summary please

                            Warranted this time I think you'll find.
                            Roy ****e Rafa Good.
                            Modifying post.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Buzzo View Post
                              Roy ****e Rafa Good.
                              Hey, that is one sentence, not three
                              Stop the cyberhate


                              from now on I will skip talking about our finances. That is a promise and will save myself from looking like a

                              Susan Black

                              Comment

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