Fourth place

[Exiled_red]

Chelsea won't be ****ed if they don't qualify for the Champions League, as they will overhaul their squad with money.

Could be difficult for them with the financial fair play rules coming in though, they'll lose ~£20m from CL alone not to mention match day revenue etc. and they are already making a loss.

[red g]

I think we'd be unlucky if we got 70 points but didn't finish in the top 4, only 3 times in the 9 years that there have been 4 CL places have the teams in 4th got more than 70 points. The highest points total never to get a CL spot (5th place) is 67.

yes but thats becuase there was always the big 4 and everyone else far, far away.

last year there was a big 5 ( with us not in it)

I think with our re-emergence you can say for the next couple of years it will be 6 teams competing for 4 places.

[IJM]

Could be difficult for them with the financial fair play rules coming in though, they'll lose ~£20m from CL alone not to mention match day revenue etc. and they are already making a loss.

Yes. If we can edge Chelsea out of the top four, I think they will be in serious trouble. They don't seem to make enough revenue from normal footballing activities to cover their existing costs and that's WITH Champions League income; never mind having enough to overhaul their ageing squad. As far as I can see Mr Russian-Money-Bollocks won't be able to just pump money in to solve the problem.

They'd have to transform to a more sustainable business model, which I'm guessing would mean a new stadium to increase matchday revenues. That would take two or three years to sort out by which time all their best players would have either retired or jumped ship to find their CL footy elsewhere.

What an incentive. If we can get fourth, we could kill Chelsea!!!

[Cormack74]

I'm guessing would mean a new stadium to increase matchday revenues. That would take two or three years to sort out by which time all their best players would have either retired or jumped ship to find their CL footy elsewhere.

Think they're already looking at this.

There was speculation a couple of months ago that they would bid for the Earls Court site even though it's supposed to be going for housing.

[Exiled_red]

yes but thats becuase there was always the big 4 and everyone else far, far away.

last year there was a big 5 ( with us not in it)

I think with our re-emergence you can say for the next couple of years it will be 6 teams competing for 4 places.

It will be 6 teams competing for 4 places but they will all take points off one another, and the whole league is tighter this year - for example last season none of the bottom 3 got more than 30 points, this year the bottom side is already on 24. There are less 'easy points' available so the totals required to finish higher will be less than last year IMO

Based on results so far this season and remaining fixtures I don't think any of ourselves, Chelsea or Spurs will make it to 70 points this season.

[IJM]

Think they're already looking at this.

There was speculation a couple of months ago that they would bid for the Earls Court site even though it's supposed to be going for housing.

I was vaguely aware that they've already been looking at this. But, they still haven't actually secured a site and even with a super fast build time, they're still looking at 2 years minimum.

[Cormack74]

I was vaguely aware that they've already been looking at this. But, they still haven't actually secured a site and even with a super fast build time, they're still looking at 2 years minimum.

Indeed.

Hopefully there aren't too many options in their immediate locality and they wont be able to get a new ground for many years to come.

[nebbers]

Hope Carroll is fit for the game against the mancs.

Vidic used to panic up against Torres. Carroll and Suarez ought to finish him off.

[Craig_H]

It will be 6 teams competing for 4 places but they will all take points off one another, and the whole league is tighter this year - for example last season none of the bottom 3 got more than 30 points, this year the bottom side is already on 24. There are less 'easy points' available so the totals required to finish higher will be less than last year IMO

Based on results so far this season and remaining fixtures I don't think any of ourselves, Chelsea or Spurs will make it to 70 points this season.

Yep.

I said, when we had 14 games left, and we were on 32 points, that we would need to win 11 out of 14, thus giving us 65 points which could yet prove enough.

Now we need to win 9 from 12, to reach that total. Do-able, but very difficult and not a great margin for error. Having said that, if 65 DOES prove enough, then knowing we could potentially lose 25% of our remaining games and still do it, is comforting.

That's IF 65 is enough, of course.

[Neil Young]

Yep.

I said, when we had 14 games left, and we were on 32 points, that we would need to win 11 out of 14, thus giving us 65 points which could yet prove enough.

Now we need to win 9 from 12, to reach that total. Do-able, but very difficult and not a great margin for error. Having said that, if 65 DOES prove enough, then knowing we could potentially lose 25% of our remaining games and still do it, is comforting.

That's IF 65 is enough, of course.

And do you think it will be?

[Exiled_red]

What could be a major problem is our goal difference, Chelsea's free scoring form at the start of the season means they currently have a goal difference of +24 while ours is just +3 I can't see us turning that around which means we'll have to finish ahead of them on points.

[red g]

Yep.

I said, when we had 14 games left, and we were on 32 points, that we would need to win 11 out of 14, thus giving us 65 points which could yet prove enough.

Now we need to win 9 from 12, to reach that total. Do-able, but very difficult and not a great margin for error. Having said that, if 65 DOES prove enough, then knowing we could potentially lose 25% of our remaining games and still do it, is comforting.

That's IF 65 is enough, of course.

I cannot see 65 being enough at all.......

[Craig_H]

These have been the points that 4th place has got in previous seasons (with a 20 team leage), and in brackets, the points that they would have needed to get 4th (eg, more than whoever finished 5th):

09-10: 70 (68)
08-09: 72 (64)
07-08: 76 (66)
06-07: 68 (61)
05-06: 67 (66)
04-05: 61 (59)
03-04: 60 (57)
02-03: 67 (65)
01-02: 71 (67)
00-01: 68 (67)
99-00: 67 (66)
98-99: 67 (58)
97-98: 63 (60)
96-97: 68 (62)
95-96: 63 (63)

So in the last 15 seasons, the average points tally for teams finishing 4th, has been 67.2.

If we go by the theory that this season, the league has been weaker, and perhaps the standard required might be a little less than average, perhaps the 65 points i'd earmarked, may prove just enough.

[red g]

These have been the points that 4th place has got in previous seasons (with a 20 team leage), and in brackets, the points that they would have needed to get 4th (eg, more than whoever finished 5th):

09-10: 70 (68)
08-09: 72 (64)
07-08: 76 (66)
06-07: 68 (61)
05-06: 67 (66)
04-05: 61 (59)
03-04: 60 (57)
02-03: 67 (65)
01-02: 71 (67)
00-01: 68 (67)
99-00: 67 (66)
98-99: 67 (58)
97-98: 63 (60)
96-97: 68 (62)
95-96: 63 (63)

So in the last 15 seasons, the average points tally for teams finishing 4th, has been 67.2.

If we go by the theory that this season, the league has been weaker, and perhaps the standard required might be a little less than average, perhaps the 65 points i'd earmarked, may prove just enough.

yes but the points total gathered by the top 2 will also be not near the 90odd points this year and maybe lucky to scrape 80 odd.

[Shaggy]

These have been the points that 4th place has got in previous seasons (with a 20 team leage), and in brackets, the points that they would have needed to get 4th (eg, more than whoever finished 5th):

09-10: 70 (68)
08-09: 72 (64)
07-08: 76 (66)
06-07: 68 (61)
05-06: 67 (66)
04-05: 61 (59)
03-04: 60 (57)
02-03: 67 (65)
01-02: 71 (67)
00-01: 68 (67)
99-00: 67 (66)
98-99: 67 (58)
97-98: 63 (60)
96-97: 68 (62)
95-96: 63 (63)

So in the last 15 seasons, the average points tally for teams finishing 4th, has been 67.2.

If we go by the theory that this season, the league has been weaker, and perhaps the standard required might be a little less than average, perhaps the 65 points i'd earmarked, may prove just enough.

It's definitely weaker but I think the top 4/5 are sharing out the points a bit more, rather than the top 2 streaking clear with around 85-90 points. It looks like the top 4 being closer bunched, with 4th on around 70 points.