Next 5 League games...

[brightred]

It's a nerve wrecking one to be sure!

[Fosterbloke]

Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)
Arsenal (A)

2 points out of six against the title challengers isn't bad. I fear Arsenal the most based on current form but I'm banking on us to get full points from Huddersfield and Cardiff.

[Fierce]

Yes but the law of averages cannot state when. It's like gambling. We have every bit of a chance to beat them again on Sunday. It could happen in the next game or 20 games.

So why is it a fallacy?

[fah-q]

He means Phallus, see

[Fredo]

So why is it a fallacy?

There is a 33% chance of either a win, draw or loss each time.

Statiscally in a very large sample, one of the events (win, draw or loss) will be observed, but statistics and probability are different things. The law of averages is a misconception, especially in that context, therefore a fallacy when observing such things because the probability would remain the same each time even if the statistics tells us one of these events could be observed over a big sample.

That's my understanding of it.

[Norbs]

There is a 0.33% chance of either a win, draw or loss each time.

Statiscally in a very large sample, one of the events (win, draw or loss) will be observed, but statistics and probability are different things. The law of averages is a misconception, especially in that context, therefore a fallacy when observing such things because the probability would remain the same each time even if the statistics tells us one of these events could be observed over a big sample.

That's my understanding of it.

I think it's a little more than 0.33%

Presuming you meant 33%. Are you suggesting that every game has an exactly equal chance of any of those permutations? Think you need a lie down Fredo

[Buzzo]

There is a 0.33% chance of either a win, draw or loss each time.

Statiscally in a very large sample, one of the events (win, draw or loss) will be observed, but statistics and probability are different things. The law of averages is a misconception, especially in that context, therefore a fallacy when observing such things because the probability would remain the same each time even if the statistics tells us one of these events could be observed over a big sample.

That's my understanding of it.

Anyone else tried reading that and imagined Roy Hodgson?

[Fredo]

I think it's a little more than 0.33%

Presuming you meant 33%. Are you suggesting that every game has an exactly equal chance of any of those permutations? Think you need a lie down Fredo

Edited.

All things being equal, Yes. Of course you would have these weighted differently depending on the quality of the teams and other things.

I need a lie down yes. It's late.

[Fredo]

Anyone else tried reading that and imagined Roy Hodgson?

[Paul12]

There is a 33% chance of either a win, draw or loss each time.

I assume you know that is rubbish. Yes there are three possible results, if we ignore the possibility that the game is abandoned, but there is no evidence to suggest each outcome is equally likely. If Liverpool were playing their full team against Tranmere you wouldn't be telling me there's a 33% chance of Tranny winning would you?

Now, if the result was decided by the toss of a three-sided coin....

[rudedog]

Anyone else tried reading that and imagined Roy Hodgson?

The mind hears what the mind want Buzzo

[Norbs]

Cursed thread

We're falling apart in October, good job we got points on the board early doors and good job we have an ok run of games.

Allison, TAA, Robbo, Gomez, Lovren, Hendo, Millie, Gini, Mo, Shaq and Firmi. Bench of Matip, Moreno, Fabinho, Studge and Derek Original isn't too shabby. Have I missed anyone?

[RichC]

Lallana but I’m guessing he’s injured anyway

[Norbs]

Lallana but I’m guessing he’s injured anyway

Not injured yet but probably will be by the time we play again

[frank the tank]

I would love if Fredo got a job at Paddypowers..... ha ha.....we'd clean them out!!!

Next 5 league games:

Huddersfield (a)
Cardiff (h)
Arsenal (a)
Fulham (h)
Watford (a)

I think we could get 15 points there.

I went on the lash at Huddersfield v Cardiff a few weeks ago. Both of those teams will be relegated this season. They cancelled each other out but were both rubbish.

With Arsenal, this is obviously the big test. I feel that City and Chelsea got lucky getting them so early in the season. I think Emery is going to be a good appointment for them and I think his personality really fits their club values. And he looks like he can do what Wenger failed at and get a song out of Lacazette and Aye-ll-bang-yer-mam. But I think our defence will be the best they have faced and I think our midfield will win the battle against theirs.

Fulham at home will be ours to lose.

And Watford started the season well but are starting to look like they are finding their level now.

In this time, City play Tottenham away and United at home (which I am expecting them to hammer Mourinhos shower of ****e but you never know. Maybe they could get Howard Webb back to referee it!!). And Chelsea play United and Spurs as well.