Midfield

[Exiled_red]

Looking at the side there is something not right with out midfield both in terms of the balance and the availability/injury records of many of the players in there.

If we look at the percentage of games that our midfielders have started over the last 3 seasons before this it makes fairly grim reading:

% of PL and CL games started
...............18-19.19-20..20-21.21-22
Fabinho.....55%...60%...73%...60%
Wijnaldum.84%...87%...88%...N/A
Thiago.......N/A....N/A....46%...47%
Milner........57%...28%...31%...53%
Keita.........39%...26%...19%...47%
Henderson.57%...70%...50%...87%
Ox..............0%...43%....4%...20%
Lallana.......12%....6%...N/A....N/A
Shaqiri.......25%....4%...13%...N/A
Jones...........0%....2%...38%...27%
Elliott..........N/A.....0%...N/A...20%

Games per season 18-19: 51, 19-20: 46, 20-21:48 21-22:15

Now obviously this doesn't tell the whole picture as it doesn't count sub appearances or games were players were available or unselected. But given that for much of this time we have had fairly settled midfield it gives some idea about the availability of the regular starters in this time.

Wijnaldum was averaging ~85% of games over the previous 3 seasons, in that time Fabinho and Henderson have each once managed to make 70% of those games in a single season once but over the 3 years are averaging about 60% each, in this period you would find it difficult to argue with those three being your first choice. Beyond that for much of that time Keita and Milner have been the main backups with Keita starting about 30% of the games and Milner 40%. It seems unfair to scrutinise other players records because they either haven't been here long enough or haven't been considered starters for much of the time for a variety of reasons.

Looking at the % of games started by each player the decision to let Wijnaldum go looks more and more baffling. Look at this season, ok we are only something like a quarter to a third of the way in. Henderson has played more than he has averaged over previous seasons, Fabinho is on about par, the numbers elsewhere are all over the place who is our 3rd midfielder based on the numbers you would say Milner, followed by Thiago and Keita, but the fact that, at the moment they aren't that far behind Fabinho. There is no consistency in our midfield largely down to injury or players being unavailable.

But even if you were to pick a first choice three (ignoring injury records) presumably you would go with Fabinho, Henderson and Thiago/Keita. Even when that midfield has played the balance doesn't look right we have been carved open by most semi decent teams we have played. The midfield aren't filling in and covering for the fullbacks, this is something that Henderson and Wijnaldum used to do quite well, Thiago and Keita have never been as good at this and Henderson's form in this regard seems to have dipped this year. If Fabinho is out Henderson is the one that seems to drop into the DM role, which he doesn't really excel at and we seem to require a nearly 36 year old Milner to be the one to come in and cover for Henderson and help out with the defensive duties because the other guys don't seem as capable. IMO without at least 2 of Fabinho, Henderson and Milner (and them all playing well) we don't really have the right balance. Last season when we had Fabinho and Henderson out of CM either injured or playing CB it was car crash stuff in there at times. Given their records it seems likely that there are going to be times when we are without a couple of them and IMO that will be hugely problematic.

The other issue is the likes of Thiago, Keita, Ox and Jones while all the more attacking player of the three when they play they are very different players and that third role changes depending on who is playing it, and that impacts on the other two guys in there, again given the respective records of the players involved it doesn't seem like we will be able to rely on having a settled midfield either in terms of personnel or the roles being played.

IMO we need to be bringing in some more reliable players in terms of their availability but we also need to figure out the system again the loss of Wijnaldum from a tactical perspective as well as an availability perspective was a big blow and I don't feel we have enough in the squad to compensate.

[Pablo]

Good post. yes as I've said we really do need a mini midfield rebuild. It's going to cost money though and are we willing to splash out on the likes of Bellingham who will be very expensive? I just can't see it.

[Exiled_red]

We have the numbers of players which in some ways makes it more difficult as you have to move more players on, but if you have 3 players in midfield every game to cover those positions you need a minimum of 4 players who can play 75% of the time, 5 players who can play 60% of the time or 6 players who can play 50% of the time and that's assuming injuries or unavailability is timed perfectly (which obviously doesn't happen). Our first choice 4 (Fabinho, Henderson, Thiago and Keita) give us about 2/3 of what we need, add Jones and Milner and assume their numbers are artificially low because they have been available but not picked in the past that probably just about gets us there with little margin for error. The problem with this is that our first choice midfield becomes 3 from 6. The obvious effect of this is that there is no consistency, balance or cohesion because you are constantly having to change players rather than developing a unit.

In my opinion we need at least a couple of players who are good enough, but also capable of playing something like 75% of games that way we can reduce the pool of players we need to pick from and develop a settled side and system, that would improve us massively.

Someone like Bellingham would be ideal, people talk about how much he would cost but you would be looking at someone who could play for the club for 15 years for something of order £80-100m, it's alot of money but when you are looking at paying £20-30m for someone like Thiago who had maybe 5 years left at the top and then in 4/5 years having to replace him with whatever the equivalent transfer fee is in that market, the long term option looks a sensible one if we believe the player is good enough.

[Mark79]

The midfield needs a do over. We can’t be going into next season with this same group and I think we need 2 new midfielders by the time next season starts. But we need to make room.

That’s why I’d be happy to let Milner go at the end of his contract.

Ox would be top of the list to be sold if there’s any takers.

Naby is a genuine asset when he’s playing, but eventually we have to draw a line over his availability problems. If there were no takers for Ox, then Naby has to be a possibility.

There’s an argument that Thiago may be falling into the same category as Naby, though unlikely there’s any possibility of him going.

I wouldn’t be adverse to replacing Henderson at this stage, but obviously that’s not going to happen either.

Fabinho is essential.

Curtis, good young player with room for improvement and would prefer to keep, but wouldn’t rule out selling him if it were necessary.

Harvey, it was only a few games but he was looking like a revelation and loads of potential for development, keep.

[Kenneth]

Availability aside, Fabinho and Thiago are our two best midfielders. We need to bring in another first choice starter. Everyone else is second tier and should be fighting over squad places

[ronanm]

Availability aside, Fabinho and Thiago are our two best midfielders. We need to bring in another first choice starter. Everyone else is second tier and should be fighting over squad places

Not really seeing it with Thiago - looked like a world beater when he arrived but now he just seems too slow. The odd no-look pass is not enough. I would take Henderson over him.

[ronanm]

Availability aside, Fabinho and Thiago are our two best midfielders. We need to bring in another first choice starter. Everyone else is second tier and should be fighting over squad places

Dupe

[Kenneth]

If that is true, then we have one midfielder who we need to keep.

[Irishnev]

If that is true, then we have one midfielder who we need to keep.

I’ve a lot of thoughts on the midfield but no time to post them now

[Exiled_red]

Availability aside, Fabinho and Thiago are our two best midfielders. We need to bring in another first choice starter. Everyone else is second tier and should be fighting over squad places

The issue is two fold though:
1) Do we have a balanced midfield with those two plus one other - I am not sure, I can see what both bring to the side but it isn't about individual players it's about how the midfield and team functions as a unit. Fabinho is clearly key to our midfield, Thiago I remain less convinced about, he has looked decent without being outstanding when he has played.
2) Can we afford to discount availability? Based on Fabinho's availability over the last 3 seasons (starting about 60% of games) and Thiago's in his time here (starting about 50%) of games between them they account for just over a third of the % midfield starts that we need (110/300*). If all our players were only available to start 50-60% of the time then we need at least 5 or 6 players all of a similar level just to get a midfield out for the whole season. That's just based on the numbers and assuming that players unavailability is spread perfectly which obviously won't happen. If players were able to play 75% of games the same number is reduced to 4...


* You need 3 midfielders starting each game in our current system over the season which gives 300% in the numbers I quoted in the original post. Fabinho starts about 60% of the time and Thiago 50% of the time giving a combined total of 110% just over a third of what we need in total.

[danperkins]

Looking at the side there is something not right with out midfield both in terms of the balance and the availability/injury records of many of the players in there.

If we look at the percentage of games that our midfielders have started over the last 3 seasons before this it makes fairly grim reading:

% of PL and CL games started
...............18-19.19-20..20-21.21-22
Fabinho.....55%...60%...73%...60%
Wijnaldum.84%...87%...88%...N/A
Thiago.......N/A....N/A....46%...47%
Milner........57%...28%...31%...53%
Keita.........39%...26%...19%...47%
Henderson.57%...70%...50%...87%
Ox..............0%...43%....4%...20%
Lallana.......12%....6%...N/A....N/A
Shaqiri.......25%....4%...13%...N/A
Jones...........0%....2%...38%...27%
Elliott..........N/A.....0%...N/A...20%

Games per season 18-19: 51, 19-20: 46, 20-21:48 21-22:15

Now obviously this doesn't tell the whole picture as it doesn't count sub appearances or games were players were available or unselected. But given that for much of this time we have had fairly settled midfield it gives some idea about the availability of the regular starters in this time.

Wijnaldum was averaging ~85% of games over the previous 3 seasons, in that time Fabinho and Henderson have each once managed to make 70% of those games in a single season once but over the 3 years are averaging about 60% each, in this period you would find it difficult to argue with those three being your first choice. Beyond that for much of that time Keita and Milner have been the main backups with Keita starting about 30% of the games and Milner 40%. It seems unfair to scrutinise other players records because they either haven't been here long enough or haven't been considered starters for much of the time for a variety of reasons.

Looking at the % of games started by each player the decision to let Wijnaldum go looks more and more baffling. Look at this season, ok we are only something like a quarter to a third of the way in. Henderson has played more than he has averaged over previous seasons, Fabinho is on about par, the numbers elsewhere are all over the place who is our 3rd midfielder based on the numbers you would say Milner, followed by Thiago and Keita, but the fact that, at the moment they aren't that far behind Fabinho. There is no consistency in our midfield largely down to injury or players being unavailable.

But even if you were to pick a first choice three (ignoring injury records) presumably you would go with Fabinho, Henderson and Thiago/Keita. Even when that midfield has played the balance doesn't look right we have been carved open by most semi decent teams we have played. The midfield aren't filling in and covering for the fullbacks, this is something that Henderson and Wijnaldum used to do quite well, Thiago and Keita have never been as good at this and Henderson's form in this regard seems to have dipped this year. If Fabinho is out Henderson is the one that seems to drop into the DM role, which he doesn't really excel at and we seem to require a nearly 36 year old Milner to be the one to come in and cover for Henderson and help out with the defensive duties because the other guys don't seem as capable. IMO without at least 2 of Fabinho, Henderson and Milner (and them all playing well) we don't really have the right balance. Last season when we had Fabinho and Henderson out of CM either injured or playing CB it was car crash stuff in there at times. Given their records it seems likely that there are going to be times when we are without a couple of them and IMO that will be hugely problematic.

The other issue is the likes of Thiago, Keita, Ox and Jones while all the more attacking player of the three when they play they are very different players and that third role changes depending on who is playing it, and that impacts on the other two guys in there, again given the respective records of the players involved it doesn't seem like we will be able to rely on having a settled midfield either in terms of personnel or the roles being played.

IMO we need to be bringing in some more reliable players in terms of their availability but we also need to figure out the system again the loss of Wijnaldum from a tactical perspective as well as an availability perspective was a big blow and I don't feel we have enough in the squad to compensate.

Cracking post that

[Exiled_red]

For me Ox is finished and Milner given his age isn't really a long term option we should be relying on. Fabinho is key, Henderson is an important player in the dressing room but I feel needs moving more into the 'Milner role' in the coming years. I like Thiago and Keita when they play at their best but their availability is problematic for me and there are still one or two tactical question marks over them (these might have been solved if they had been able to play regular runs of games, but the reality seems to suggest that this isn't the case). Jones and Elliott I would like to say will both make it but at the moment that isn't guaranteed.

For me this summer we need 2 players to come into the CM numbers wise to replace Ox and Milner, at least one of whom needs to be able to play DM and the other a CM (we have a decent no of attacking options elsewhere) both of whom need to be available for 70+% of games and both of whom would be brought into the side as regulars by the 2nd half of next season. Essentially giving us a midfield consisting of 2 new guys Fabinho, Thiago, Henderson, Keita, Jones and Elliott. If those guys really are able to play 70% of the games each combined with Fabinho's 60% we need the rest to make up the other third of all the midfield minutes plus coving for injury etc, truth is that probably leaves us a little over stocked so at that point we would need to be making a decision on who else stays and who goes, but unless there is a marked improvement or silly money is offered for someone else Keita would be my favourite to be moved on...

[baitman]

I have been saying our midfield is mostly poor for ages.
Our forwards, full backs and defence have basically been papering over the cracks but its been clear how vulnerable we have been to counter attack for years.
Fabinho is generally decent, henderson occasionally turns in a master class, but most of the others are average at best.
And thats before you factor in availability...
Its never straightforward substituting one for another as they need to function as a unit and no matter how much you train for it there is a massive difference to a proper aggressive opposition.
Two of our main midfielders (hendo and milner) are getting on a bit and the legs are struggling a bit,
Its not about us no longer having wijnaldum as his last year was a massive drop off in form for him.
Thiago has all the tools but is either unfit or not playing to the level we expect from a 200k a week player.
Keita is an enigma, he could be excellent but rarely available and form is very hit and miss.
Oxlade was a regular sick note at arsenal and im amazed we bothered to sign him, and will very rarely be worthy of his place.
Jones may develop into a decent player but his positonal sense, discipline and availability are all questionable.
The rest really dont add up to much.

[Kenneth]

As with last season and not replacing Lovren, we’ve gone into this season with approach of making do and planning to make use of squad members instead of trying to consistently improve the first team year on year as you expect at the top level. And let’s be honest, we’ve done it to avoid the expenditure; it’s the budget option. Now given the state of football finances now and potentially in the medium term, that is understandable. When you look at the squads we’re competing with, I guess the lesson is that expectations need calming a bit. All things considered we are doing very well this season, as well as we could reasonably expect. But we’re not the best team in the division anymore.

[ChesterDave]

Cracking post that

Apart from the table - doing my nut in that is

No code has to be inserted here.aaaaaaand relax