Darwin Núñez

[Charly]

If the margins are small then he should hopefully be able to make them up.

[vlahka]

The PL is higher quality that almost all international football and defences are better drilled /more cohesive. Maybe that’s part of it.

I dont buy that whole PL higher quality stuff. The last 20 years in the europa cup for example, only 3 english teams have won it, and thats UTD and 2 to chelsea. All the lower teams just go straight out. I tell you its the garbage refs that allow them to look better than they really are.

[Kenneth]

I dont buy that whole PL higher quality stuff. The last 20 years in the europa cup for example, only 3 english teams have won it, and thats UTD and 2 to chelsea. All the lower teams just go straight out. I tell you it’s ah. the garbage refs that allow them to look better than they really are.

Nah. Firstly, because the PL is so competitive, teams can’t focus on the Europa league and damage top four, or top 6 chances. Secondly, you’re comparing the PL sides to sides in other leagues, where the comparison is one of high level club football to international football. International teams probably average a game a month, train for a few weeks a year and have much higher player turnover than any club. Players are put in systems they’re not familiar with, with players they don’t play with, including the goalkeeper. International strikers have to deal with more disjointed service, but they also face disjointed defences

[Craig_H]

That is based very much on cherry picking certain stats and ignoring others.

It also taking into account "chances" where the attacker does not even take a shot on goal or even touch the ball during the transistion of play deemed a big chance. So a ball whipped across the box that comes close to a few attackers is potentially a knock against them using the big chance figures.


Just looking at the name that stands out the most in an unrealistic manner...Son.


Am going to use Premier league figures only to avoid things like stat padding from Europa league or international games against fodder.


He is being listed as having an 80% conversion rate, but a quick look at his stats for this season in the league show that 28 of the 38 shots he attempted so far have either been saved or missed the goal altogether.

So he has converted 10 shots from 38 into goals. So his actual conversion rate is 26.32% which over a sustained period of time would be regarded as an elite conversion rate. Anything over 20% over the course of an entire season is elite.


If you dig a bit further into his 38 shots. 18 of those missed the goal altogether so now he is down to hitting the target 20 times out of 38, so he hits the target just over 50%, and of those 20 that hit the target 10 were goals.

So basically he gets a shot on target 52.6% of the time and of those that are on target he gets a goal 50% of the time. All elite numbers.


Kane, to pick out a guy known for his finishing, used to finish each season with a conversion rate of between 19% and 26% for most of his time at Spurs.




So when we see Nunez being pillared for his 11% or 12% (he is nowhere near the 17% shown there plus that 11% quoted on here was prior to the last game so it is worse now), it is lowish (pretty much in the same ball park as Jota, Gakpo and Diaz) but when you look at how often his shots are saved by the keeper or hit woodwork rather than just blasted wide, he does read as a player that if tiny margins went his way would suddenly shoot up to being a close to 20% guy. That is not saying he will do so, just that his numbers read like he is a could that could very easily go that way.



But to then expand on the tiny margins point and to look at Darwin's shots at goal the way I did with those of Son.

In the league he now has 4 goals from 45 shots which now gives him a goals to shots conversion rate of 9% (rounded up from 8.89%). Pretty poor, however if we then look at that tiny margins thing I mention and we dig into actually hitting the target and missing the goal altogether.

From his 45 shots he has hit the target 18 times (not including any of the times he hit the woodwork) so when he takes a shot he currently hits the target 40% of the time so he is forcing the keepers to make saves.





If people wanted to add in how often he hits the woodwork into the on target figures (personally I don't) then he moves to hitting the target 23 times from 45 shots. A shots on target conversion rate of 51%.


So his numbers suggest what watching the game should tell people. He is doing a hell of a lot right. His postioning and ability to get into attacking positions are very close to elite.

But saves and especially hitting the woodwork are killing his goal conversion rates.


Just for giggles I looked at his conversion rate if the times he hit the woodwork went in.

He would be on 9 goals from 53 shots or 9 goals from 23 shots on target giving him conversions rates of 17% (rounded up) or 39%.


All whataboutery and woulda couldas, but he is those five strikes against the woodwork away from approaching elite conversion levels.

Not going to help us unless they bring in a woulda shoulda coulda league table, but do think, as said already, that Darwin's numbers suggest that he is a striker that just needs the inches from the Al Pacino speech to fall his way a little more and suddenly his numbers for getting shots off and getting into position will do the rest.

All that said, watch him now draw a blank against the red Mancs but get a hat trick of assists setting Salah up.

We could analyse and discuss stats all day (I appreciate that I started it, on this occasion).

The eye test is also on the table and we’re seeing Darwin get a lot of chances, many of them pretty good ones, and scoring less frequently than he should.

Fundamentally, if this continues as it is, he won’t remain at the club long term.

If he makes a significant improvement and starts putting good goal numbers on the table, he probably will remain at the club and be a success.

[Kenneth]

If the margins are small then he should hopefully be able to make them up.

The margins are small for everyone, that’s the nature of the shot conversion statistic.

If you look at the initial analysis, Darwin’s 11% is framed as being almost as good as Jota’s at 14%, but that’s not a valid comparison or conclusion. Cristiano Ronaldo achieved between 12% and 17% throughout his career except for one 20%+ year; it’s not a very informative stat.

Ultimately, this statistical stuff is a massive distraction, and deliberately so. We’ve never had these kind of discussions about any other LFC striker, we knew who was good/doing well enough over time. So far he hasn’t been good enough, maybe he will become so. Again, this is true for pretty much any young player who’s still developing, it’s just about where the club/manager/fans decide that they aren’t interested in relying on that progression anymore. Darwin obviously isn’t there yet, but it might not be all that long if he doesn’t start scoring more goals as our #9.


Centre forwards get more assists, it comes with the territory on the pitch, and others would get more if he didn’t miss as often.

[Doc_Piptorious]

We could analyse and discuss stats all day (I appreciate that I started it, on this occasion).

The eye test is also on the table and we’re seeing Darwin get a lot of chances, many of them pretty good ones, and scoring less frequently than he should.

Fundamentally, if this continues as it is, he won’t remain at the club long term.

If he makes a significant improvement and starts putting good goal numbers on the table, he probably will remain at the club and be a success.

To be fair I did mention that his stats do back up what people watching will see.


The stats do show a lot of misses that are either saved or off target and if you dig deeper into the stats they show the average distance from goal the misses come from and so on.

What I was looking at was the fact the stats that are highliting his misses are also highlighting the fine margins that are in play with him. As said, his position, run making and all round general instincts seem to be at or close to being at an elite level.

Plus he has been a bit unlucky hitting the woodwork as often as he has. I know it falls into ifs and maybes, but just converting hitting the woodwork five tiumnes is the difference between him posting close to elite conversions numbers and the ones he is putting up at present.

I am not even giving him a goal or two back from any thing else, I am only looking at the woodwork ones as the keeper was beaten for those.

Now he may well just continuie as he is, and stay with a low to average conversion rate (albeit coupled with a better than average assist rate), but do think his numbers show that the potential is there for him to become a 15 to 20 goal (league goals that is) a season striker that also gets close to or into the double figure assist mark.


Of couyrse it might go the other way and this time next season we may instead have Osimhen, Boniface or my old mucker Martinez upfront and have already forgotten about poor auld Darwin.

[fidget]

We're top of the league with second most goals scored, least goals conceded and look far more threatening when he's on the pitch.
Can't wait to see us when our misfiring front line, unbalanced midfield and crocked back four pull their fingers out. The whole team are relying on the best keeper in the world to keep us out of the relegation battle.

[Buzzo]

Harv is going to lose his **** completely when he sees this thread you guys.

[spud_gun]

Harv is going to lose his **** completely when he sees this thread you guys.

Again?

[BigChief]

If Haaland is the epitomy of finishing then Darwin is only 22% behind him.

[vlahka]

Nah. Firstly, because the PL is so competitive, teams can’t focus on the Europa league and damage top four, or top 6 chances. Secondly, you’re comparing the PL sides to sides in other leagues, where the comparison is one of high level club football to international football. International teams probably average a game a month, train for a few weeks a year and have much higher player turnover than any club. Players are put in systems they’re not familiar with, with players they don’t play with, including the goalkeeper. International strikers have to deal with more disjointed service, but they also face disjointed defences

Teams in every league have to focus on their top spots. If anything the PL has more spots than other leagues so they have to play even harder to reach those limited slots. I'm not sure what leagues you're referring to where they play once a month. I see them playing weekly, no different to the PL. They have their own domestic cups also. Every team has player turn over.

[Kenneth]

Never mind.

[Harv]

He must have literally just moved to the top of the offside charts and already it's a stick to beat him with. 11 is hardly a huge number and is just 1 ahead of Diaz ffs. Plus very few teams have a consistent starting CF this year, which is another reason why he's leading at this stage.

Let's also not forget that this Luton miss we hear about 100 times a day was technically offside too.

Or if supreme being Mo Salah hadn't missed a tap in header put on a plate for him, which then resulted in the Darwin chance.

[Harv]

Harv is going to lose his **** completely when he sees this thread you guys.

[Venton]

Or if supreme being Mo Salah hadn't missed a tap in header put on a plate for him, which then resulted in the Darwin chance.

Mo has had plenty of stick in here of late but he generally gets more of a pass because he's helped us win leagues and European cups. If Nunez does the same we'll all be giving him a bit more slack. As it is he's a bit more memorable for missing sitters.