One of the rites of passage a young champion seeking superstardom must navigate is a fight against a European contender, and such is the scenario facing WBC middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik. On June 7 in Atlantic City's Boardwalk Hall the "Buckeye Banger" (33-0, 29 KO) will take on mandatory challenger Gary Lockett of Wales (30-1, 21 KO) as part of HBO's "World Championship Boxing." Pavlik is a prohibitive 16-to-1 favorite to dispose of Lockett and consider a superfight with another Welshman - light heavyweight champion Joe Calzaghe.
Two fights featuring Lockett provide some statistical insight as to his chances of blocking a potential Calzaghe-Pavlik meeting. On July 8, 2006 in Cardiff, Lockett defeated Ryan Rhodes by unanimous decision, and both his best and worst assets were on display. Lockett proved himself a fast starter as he dropped Rhodes in the first 30 seconds with a hook to the top of the head, and in the first two rounds he surged to a 50-16 lead in overall connects and a 41-13 advantage in landed power punches. But Rhodes, who constantly switched from orthodox to southpaw and back, regained his sea legs in the third and managed to hang in during the middle rounds as he registered double-digit connects in rounds five through eight - something he had done just once in the first four rounds.
Meanwhile, the aggressive Lockett continued to control the action in every category with steady combination punching while Rhodes focused on defense. From rounds five through nine, Lockett averaged 65 punches and 23 connects per round while Rhodes was a relatively anemic 11 of 35 overall. Lockett's advantage in power punches during that stretch was even more pronounced as Lockett was 16 of 36 to Rhodes' 7 of 16.
With the fight seemingly in hand, Lockett nearly lost it in the 10th when a Rhodes right to the ear sent him to the floor. Rhodes had by far his best round as he landed 27 of 68 (more than the 17 of 65 he registered the previous two rounds) overall, and all 27 were power punches. To his credit, Lockett rode out the storm and finished strong as he registered bests in both total punches thrown and landed (30 of 83) and in power punches thrown and landed (26 of 62).
In all, Lockett was 246 of 758 overall (32 percent) while Rhodes was 133 of 463 (29 percent). Lockett's 63 punches per round and 21 connects were slightly better than the middleweight averages of 57 and 18 while his aggression limited Rhodes to 39 punches per round and 11 connects. Lockett managed to neutralize Rhodes' jab as he piled up a 73-31 connect advantage while throwing 11 more per round (29 to 18).
Four months after beating Rhodes, the 163-pound Lockett met 170-pound Ghanaian Ayitey Powers in Newport, Wales in a scheduled 10 rounder. Lockett won virtually every second of every round en route to a 100-90 victory as Powers did little more than offer a high guard and soak up punishment with a defiant smile. Lockett's hands and feet were light years quicker as he fearlessly fired a ceaseless series of combinations for the entire 30 minutes, averaging 75 punches and 18 connects per round to Powers' 27 and five. To get an idea of how dominant Lockett was, his worst statistical round (11 of 57 in round seven) was better than Powers' best (8 of 41 in round six).
Powers was 50 of 271 (18 percent) overall while Lockett was 186 of 751 (25 percent). Lockett reached Powers' connect total for the fight in the first half of round three, and bookended his solid effort with an 82-punch first round and an 86-punch last round (cementing his reputation as a quick starter and a strong finisher). However, Powers' lack of offense offered few answers on Lockett's ability to defend. Powers was just 16 of 110 in jabs (15 percent) and 34 of 161 (21 percent) in power punches while Lockett landed 83 of 479 jabs (17 percent) and 103 of 272 power shots (38 percent), pretty good numbers against an extremely defensive opponent.
Aggressiveness has always been Lockett's calling card, but the bad news for the Welshman is that Pavlik feasts on fighters who come to him. On May 19, 2007 in Memphis Pavlik met the fearsome Edison Miranda in a showdown of young middleweight bombers and after seven spectacular rounds Pavlik emerged a TKO winner - and a star on the rise. The first two rounds were competitive as Miranda averaged 29 of 90 overall and Pavlik was 39 of 90 but from the third round on it was a mathematical massacre. Pavlik's powerful volume punching first broke Miranda's body, then his spirit as Pavlik out-landed the Colombian 149-51 overall and 118-40 in power punches from rounds three through six. That averages out to 24 more connects per round overall (eight per minute) and 19.5 power connects per round. Pavlik then capped off a sterling effort in the seventh by landing 14 of 24 overall (58 percent), including 12 of 18 power shots (a withering 67 percent).
In a little more than six rounds, Pavlik was 242 of 539 overall (45 percent) and 193 of 418 in power punches (46 percent) while Miranda was 111 of 504 (22 percent) and 90 of 345 in power shots (26 percent). Pavlik's power averages of 28 of 60 per round far surpassed the divisional average of 12 of 33. Finally, Pavlik's jab effectively teed up Miranda for the bombs that followed by landing at a 40 percent rate (49 of 121) while Miranda, never big on the jab, was 90 of 345 (26 percent).
The high-octane trend Pavlik established in the Miranda fight continued when he met WBC middleweight champion Jermain Taylor September 29, 2007 in Atlantic City.
While that fight also ended in a seventh round TKO victory for Pavlik, it couldn't have been a more different fight. Unlike Miranda, Taylor didn't easily wilt under Pavlik's pressure and he exacted more than his share of damage.
After Pavlik easily won the first round by landing 43 of 89 to Taylor's 26 of 72, Taylor nearly put Pavlik away in the second with a resounding knockdown and a vicious follow-up assault. In that round, Taylor landed 52 of his 75 punches (69 percent) and an unbelievable 84 percent of his power shots (42 of 50), setting personal bests for overall and power connects in a single round. Somehow, Pavlik found a way to endure and - even more impressively - revive himself to the point that he was competing evenly with the best Taylor fans have seen in years.
The pair piled on the punishment in rounds three through six, with Pavlik averaging 28 of 78 overall and Taylor 25 of 53. Then, with shocking suddenness, Pavlik seized the title with an awesome offensive display in round seven as he landed 23 of 48 overall and 15 of 28 power shots to leave Taylor in a crumpled heap.
The overall numbers reflected Pavlik's slight superiority in raw numbers and Taylor's advantages in efficiency. Overall, Pavlik was 198 of 494 (40 percent) and Taylor was 182 of 369 (49 percent) while in jabs Pavlik was 86 of 260 (33 percent) and Taylor was 77 of 207 (37 percent). Taylor, however, feasted on Pavlik's all-out aggression by landing 65 percent of his power shots (105 of 162) but "The Ghost" had the final word by landing seven more (112) at 48 percent accuracy.
The Pavlik-Taylor rematch on February 7, 2008 in Las Vegas saw both weigh 164 pounds and the action, while good, wasn't nearly as compelling. The difference between victory and defeat was Pavlik's jab and Taylor's far diminished power stats in terms of raw numbers and accuracy.
The second fight saw Pavlik throw and land more jabs, which allowed him to control the distance. Pavlik improved from 36 to 40 jabs per round (landing 12 while Taylor dipped from 30 to 24 jabs per round (landing eight). But the most telling stat is that Taylor, who landed 105 power punches in six-plus rounds of action in the first fight, managed to connect on just 76 over 12 rounds in the rematch - a 40 percent drop in effectiveness in terms of power punches landed per minute.
Prediction: Pavlik's lanky frame and volume-punching approach is a nightmare for most fighters, but it's even worse for a cut-prone aggressor like Lockett. To be effective, Lockett must move inside Pavlik's long arms and work combinations to the body, but to do so he must fight through a never-ending swarm of punches that, shot for shot, are harder.
British observers have noted that Lockett has tender skin and trouble staying focused enough to execute a fight plan throughout the contest. His left eye began to show damage after fielding just nine punches from Powers and in his sole loss to Yuri Tsarenko in April 2002 he sustained cuts requiring more than 40 stitches. Even if he everything else goes right for Lockett, his vulnerable brows remain a dangerous wild card that could cut his challenge short.
The preponderance of evidence against the Welshman is too much to ignore. Just like with Miranda and Taylor in the first fight, Pavlik's numbers game will eventually get to Lockett and Pavlik will be a winner in seven rounds - and it wouldn't be surprising if Pavlik dispatched him even earlier.
Two fights featuring Lockett provide some statistical insight as to his chances of blocking a potential Calzaghe-Pavlik meeting. On July 8, 2006 in Cardiff, Lockett defeated Ryan Rhodes by unanimous decision, and both his best and worst assets were on display. Lockett proved himself a fast starter as he dropped Rhodes in the first 30 seconds with a hook to the top of the head, and in the first two rounds he surged to a 50-16 lead in overall connects and a 41-13 advantage in landed power punches. But Rhodes, who constantly switched from orthodox to southpaw and back, regained his sea legs in the third and managed to hang in during the middle rounds as he registered double-digit connects in rounds five through eight - something he had done just once in the first four rounds.
Meanwhile, the aggressive Lockett continued to control the action in every category with steady combination punching while Rhodes focused on defense. From rounds five through nine, Lockett averaged 65 punches and 23 connects per round while Rhodes was a relatively anemic 11 of 35 overall. Lockett's advantage in power punches during that stretch was even more pronounced as Lockett was 16 of 36 to Rhodes' 7 of 16.
With the fight seemingly in hand, Lockett nearly lost it in the 10th when a Rhodes right to the ear sent him to the floor. Rhodes had by far his best round as he landed 27 of 68 (more than the 17 of 65 he registered the previous two rounds) overall, and all 27 were power punches. To his credit, Lockett rode out the storm and finished strong as he registered bests in both total punches thrown and landed (30 of 83) and in power punches thrown and landed (26 of 62).
In all, Lockett was 246 of 758 overall (32 percent) while Rhodes was 133 of 463 (29 percent). Lockett's 63 punches per round and 21 connects were slightly better than the middleweight averages of 57 and 18 while his aggression limited Rhodes to 39 punches per round and 11 connects. Lockett managed to neutralize Rhodes' jab as he piled up a 73-31 connect advantage while throwing 11 more per round (29 to 18).
Four months after beating Rhodes, the 163-pound Lockett met 170-pound Ghanaian Ayitey Powers in Newport, Wales in a scheduled 10 rounder. Lockett won virtually every second of every round en route to a 100-90 victory as Powers did little more than offer a high guard and soak up punishment with a defiant smile. Lockett's hands and feet were light years quicker as he fearlessly fired a ceaseless series of combinations for the entire 30 minutes, averaging 75 punches and 18 connects per round to Powers' 27 and five. To get an idea of how dominant Lockett was, his worst statistical round (11 of 57 in round seven) was better than Powers' best (8 of 41 in round six).
Powers was 50 of 271 (18 percent) overall while Lockett was 186 of 751 (25 percent). Lockett reached Powers' connect total for the fight in the first half of round three, and bookended his solid effort with an 82-punch first round and an 86-punch last round (cementing his reputation as a quick starter and a strong finisher). However, Powers' lack of offense offered few answers on Lockett's ability to defend. Powers was just 16 of 110 in jabs (15 percent) and 34 of 161 (21 percent) in power punches while Lockett landed 83 of 479 jabs (17 percent) and 103 of 272 power shots (38 percent), pretty good numbers against an extremely defensive opponent.
Aggressiveness has always been Lockett's calling card, but the bad news for the Welshman is that Pavlik feasts on fighters who come to him. On May 19, 2007 in Memphis Pavlik met the fearsome Edison Miranda in a showdown of young middleweight bombers and after seven spectacular rounds Pavlik emerged a TKO winner - and a star on the rise. The first two rounds were competitive as Miranda averaged 29 of 90 overall and Pavlik was 39 of 90 but from the third round on it was a mathematical massacre. Pavlik's powerful volume punching first broke Miranda's body, then his spirit as Pavlik out-landed the Colombian 149-51 overall and 118-40 in power punches from rounds three through six. That averages out to 24 more connects per round overall (eight per minute) and 19.5 power connects per round. Pavlik then capped off a sterling effort in the seventh by landing 14 of 24 overall (58 percent), including 12 of 18 power shots (a withering 67 percent).
In a little more than six rounds, Pavlik was 242 of 539 overall (45 percent) and 193 of 418 in power punches (46 percent) while Miranda was 111 of 504 (22 percent) and 90 of 345 in power shots (26 percent). Pavlik's power averages of 28 of 60 per round far surpassed the divisional average of 12 of 33. Finally, Pavlik's jab effectively teed up Miranda for the bombs that followed by landing at a 40 percent rate (49 of 121) while Miranda, never big on the jab, was 90 of 345 (26 percent).
The high-octane trend Pavlik established in the Miranda fight continued when he met WBC middleweight champion Jermain Taylor September 29, 2007 in Atlantic City.
While that fight also ended in a seventh round TKO victory for Pavlik, it couldn't have been a more different fight. Unlike Miranda, Taylor didn't easily wilt under Pavlik's pressure and he exacted more than his share of damage.
After Pavlik easily won the first round by landing 43 of 89 to Taylor's 26 of 72, Taylor nearly put Pavlik away in the second with a resounding knockdown and a vicious follow-up assault. In that round, Taylor landed 52 of his 75 punches (69 percent) and an unbelievable 84 percent of his power shots (42 of 50), setting personal bests for overall and power connects in a single round. Somehow, Pavlik found a way to endure and - even more impressively - revive himself to the point that he was competing evenly with the best Taylor fans have seen in years.
The pair piled on the punishment in rounds three through six, with Pavlik averaging 28 of 78 overall and Taylor 25 of 53. Then, with shocking suddenness, Pavlik seized the title with an awesome offensive display in round seven as he landed 23 of 48 overall and 15 of 28 power shots to leave Taylor in a crumpled heap.
The overall numbers reflected Pavlik's slight superiority in raw numbers and Taylor's advantages in efficiency. Overall, Pavlik was 198 of 494 (40 percent) and Taylor was 182 of 369 (49 percent) while in jabs Pavlik was 86 of 260 (33 percent) and Taylor was 77 of 207 (37 percent). Taylor, however, feasted on Pavlik's all-out aggression by landing 65 percent of his power shots (105 of 162) but "The Ghost" had the final word by landing seven more (112) at 48 percent accuracy.
The Pavlik-Taylor rematch on February 7, 2008 in Las Vegas saw both weigh 164 pounds and the action, while good, wasn't nearly as compelling. The difference between victory and defeat was Pavlik's jab and Taylor's far diminished power stats in terms of raw numbers and accuracy.
The second fight saw Pavlik throw and land more jabs, which allowed him to control the distance. Pavlik improved from 36 to 40 jabs per round (landing 12 while Taylor dipped from 30 to 24 jabs per round (landing eight). But the most telling stat is that Taylor, who landed 105 power punches in six-plus rounds of action in the first fight, managed to connect on just 76 over 12 rounds in the rematch - a 40 percent drop in effectiveness in terms of power punches landed per minute.
Prediction: Pavlik's lanky frame and volume-punching approach is a nightmare for most fighters, but it's even worse for a cut-prone aggressor like Lockett. To be effective, Lockett must move inside Pavlik's long arms and work combinations to the body, but to do so he must fight through a never-ending swarm of punches that, shot for shot, are harder.
British observers have noted that Lockett has tender skin and trouble staying focused enough to execute a fight plan throughout the contest. His left eye began to show damage after fielding just nine punches from Powers and in his sole loss to Yuri Tsarenko in April 2002 he sustained cuts requiring more than 40 stitches. Even if he everything else goes right for Lockett, his vulnerable brows remain a dangerous wild card that could cut his challenge short.
The preponderance of evidence against the Welshman is too much to ignore. Just like with Miranda and Taylor in the first fight, Pavlik's numbers game will eventually get to Lockett and Pavlik will be a winner in seven rounds - and it wouldn't be surprising if Pavlik dispatched him even earlier.
You'll Never Walk Alone
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