logic test part4

[victor barry]

You are on a game show on telly- there's 3 doors. Behind one is a farrari and there's nothing behind the other 2. So you pick a door. The presenter then opens one of the unchosen doors revealing it to be empty to add to the suspense. He's then about to open your door but decides to offer you the chance to instead change to the final unchosen door instead. The question is would you statistically be better off, changing, sticking with the one you have or does it make any difference?

[Guest]

Probability wise it makes no difference. But now, we have to make out if he's trying to fail you, which will be a different ball game.

[meffin]

statistically its better of swapping i think, im not sure how, i just seem to remember better to change

[MrsB]

Try it out, it makes a difference. Stastistically you're better off with changing.

[Rhys]

better off changing. i saw this on the film '21' so i know the answer.

when you picked for the first time you had a 33% chance you would get the car and a 66% chance you would pick nothing.

if you stick after the host revealed a door with nothing you would still have a 33% chance of winning the car, whilst if you switched you would increase your odd's to 66%, giving you a better chance of winning.

[Chrono]

better off changing. i saw this on the film '21' so i know the answer.

when you picked for the first time you had a 33% chance you would get the car and a 66% chance you would pick nothing.

if you stick after the host revealed a door with nothing you would still have a 33% chance of winning the car, whilst if you switched you would increase your odd's to 66%, giving you a better chance of winning.

That doesn't work. The minute he shows you the door with nothing behind it you have cut your odds down to 50/50. How can you have a 33% chance when it either is or isn't the door you chose. Applying this logic you could just pick the same door again.

I don't believe it makes any difference.

[nevelator]

That doesn't work. The minute he shows you the door with nothing behind it you have cut your odds down to 50/50. How can you have a 33% chance when it either is or isn't the door you chose. Applying this logic you could just pick the same door again.

I don't believe it makes any difference.

I was thinking the same thing. By choosing not to change you are making a decision!

[Icon]

Choose the one with the biggest tits!

Sorry - different question...

[Trippendicular]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

That explains it all

[victor barry]

You're better off changing them. Think of the three doors as 1, 2 and 3. suppose the car is behind 1. If:
a)you guess 2, he'll open 3.
b)you guess 3, he'll open 2.
c)you guess 1, he can open either.

Now consider the scenario where you guess one door and then change it. In cases "a" and "b" you'll be successful but only in the final case "c" will you not be successful. therefor you have a 2/3 chance of winning the car if you change doors.

Therefor if you should change given the chance.

[Robbie-9-Fowler]

but you'll look like a right cunt if you change and the car was behind the door you chose first.

[MrsB]

but you'll look like a right cunt if you change and the car was behind the door you chose first.

Not to intelligent people.