All talk appeases the banks but...

[stuartb]

I am worried

Im not worried about anything to do with Rafa or his plans but im worried about the yanks.

I have lived in the US for 10 years - was born and raised not too far from Liverpool but have to a large extent ive become accustomed to the American way of business based somewhat on my job (business development) and my general experience of yanks and what/how they do things h:

When you buy a company - you do so for profit. Its an investment - its a return on equity, its not 'an emotional thing' as it might have been had Mr Redrow been worth hundreds of millions as opposed to less than that. Im skeptical about Gillett and his mate (Hey Tom - we can make some $$$ here. Throw in X and you'll get Y back in 5 years son - trust me).

When you buy a company, you have a medium-long term plan (hey lets build a stadium and increases the valuation over X number of years and regardless of success the fan base will carry us in the short term and our investment will be worthwhile)

Im not sure (honestly dont know) to what extent these yanks realise that they have to outlay so many millions every year to maintain their valuations. The fact that weve signed noone of note so far makes me think they are happy to maintain the status quo - to an extent of us being one of the 'top four' so they can make some $$ on tv revenues

I really, really, really hope im wrong but in my job (back to the earlier point) ive heard so much pure BS around buying companies just so the owners/shareholders can make $$$ that unless we see real 'speculation' in the transfer marlet - IE big names as opposed to 'one for the future' that its all just a game.

Please prove me wrong but me is starting to think that H&G can invest X amount, build a new stadium (and good on them), minimize player investment so that their stake in 3-5 years is worth X% more (not sure what that might be but throw in 20% and they are raking it in).

I hope that the long term plan proves me wrong but I am starting to think that American hyperbole (IE bull****) is going to allow us to survive as a top four without ever having the funds to go further. On a positive note, Rafa will be the weather beacon - per Valencia and his past experiences. If hes happy - im happy. If hes not im not. If he goes...I dont dare to think about it...welcome to 'having a great season because we made the CL qualifiers' :whatever:

I truly hope he is still here in years to come and has the $$$ to do what he needs but I see loud mouthed Americans promising a lot and dont see the $$$ yet.

George to Tom - "Lets build them a new stadium and do just enough to maintain top 4 and in 5 years we'll make a killing in the long term. If it was a manufacturing business - you maintain the quality and improve the infrastructure - hence increase the value without necessarily becoming the best"


I really hope not - G&H please prove my skepticism wrong and for christs sake - before the new season get us the quality players 'Rofa' wants.


YNWA

[Guest]

Good post stuart. I have my reservations also but I guess we'll just have to wait and see. The Bent's and Benayoun's of this world doesn't fill me with confidence at all, but if Rafa's happy, so am I.

The future holds all the answers. Seen somewhere here that pre-season training starts in 3 weeks (could someone confirm?), so it will be soon that we'll start to see concrete evidence of their spending.

[Craig_H]

They wont make much of a return if we arent successful on the pitch.

And making investments in order to make money isnt exclusively an american thing mate

[stuartb]

They wont make much of a return if we arent successful on the pitch.

And making investments in order to make money isnt exclusively an american thing mate

I totally agree - of course not but maybe the real question boils down to real passion or real investment and play up the passion to make it work - thats a classic yank traight.


G&T - please, please prove my scepticism totally wrong - ill gladly come out and say so if thats the case.

Unless we sign some real star players in the next 2 years and only so long as 'Rofa' stays (ill give them a year based on stadium costs) we wont be challenging for the title as we should

[stuartb]

They wont make much of a return if we arent successful on the pitch.

And making investments in order to make money isnt exclusively an american thing mate

Additionally - they can maintain an 'average' player investment- build big **** off stadium (not complaining there), make our marketing as it should be and make a boat load on their investment and they are sorted :"The English Premier League is the rishest in the world bc of TV rights etc" $$$$$$$$

The question is - as many people other than me have raised - will they invest in star players and really go for it or just make us 'better', maintain top 4 and still make a killing?

I dont know the answer but unless we have a far superior team come August 11th, ill know where my thoughts lay and I really really hope I can eat my hat

[Craig_H]

Problem is, making us top 4 wont make them that much of a killing.

In places like the far east, where they pay huge money to watch our football, most of them tend to be glory hunters and they'll support (and pay to watch) whoever's winning. If that's not us, the 'killing' will be more of a 'bruising', in all honesty

[Craig_H]

The question is - as many people other than me have raised - will they invest in star players and really go for it or just make us 'better', maintain top 4 and still make a killing?

If it was possible to make us better without buying top players, Rafa would've done it.

We're the 3rd best side and the top 2 are way ahead - it'll take top players to bridge that kind of gap. Without them, we'll stay 3rd best and not get better.

[stuartb]

Problem is, making us top 4 wont make them that much of a killing.

In places like the far east, where they pay huge money to watch our football, most of them tend to be glory hunters and they'll support (and pay to watch) whoever's winning. If that's not us, the 'killing' will be more of a 'bruising', in all honesty

Respectfully I have to disagree...

Maintain us as a top four - build a great new stadium (no complaints there) and rake in ongoing increases in TV revenues along with an improved marketing operation (and seriously, an MBA straight out of school could do better than we currently do) and theres your upside - regardless of whether the team gets to win the league.

BTW I have several hats I will happily eat and in the right circumstances would be happy to do so

[Revo]

[QUOTE=DJS;511770]If it was possible to make us better without buying top players, Rafa would've done it.




the only problem with that though is tom hicks spouting off about the current squad becoming more consistent

[Craig_H]

the only problem with that though is tom hicks spouting off about the current squad becoming more consistent

Even he must be stupid if he thinks that not being consistent enough is a 'choice' thing. They're as good as they can be. 2005-2006, when we finished 1 point off the mancs is as good as the current batch can be, IMO.

Consistency is a mark of quality and even G&H must realise that.

[stuartb]

Problem is, making us top 4 wont make them that much of a killing. D

DJs - all due respect mate but we are top 4. Maintain top 4 over the next X number of year (3-5?) with ongoing upside in TV revenue and increased global interest along with a new stadium (no complaints there) and make marketing what it should be and theres your income that increases value by a ****load very easily - regardless of 4th or 1st.

I cant help but think that they must have a detailed business model with upside potential and worst case scenarios. In my experience thats how you value something and set expectations - best case V worst case and in reality its somewhere in-between (not saying I know it all mind )

However - purely based on my experience, if the worst case (maintain top 4 or UEFA cup with a new stadium, increased season ticket revenues and improved marketing income ((easy catch))) increases net worth - its not a hugely risky investment - its a no brainer.

Hat on high heat for 2 mins will eat well if my scepticism is misplaced (please be the case)

[Craig_H]

With all due respect stuart, football isnt the kind of business that will yield you hundreds of millions of pounds a year. It just isnt. Independent TV deals is what the investors are jizzing themselves over and if/when that happens, even that will depend, to an extent, of how successful you are because millions/billions of people wont pay to watch a dire, unsuccessful team.

[Craig_H]

However - purely based on my experience, if the worst case (maintain top 4 or UEFA cup with a new stadium, increased season ticket revenues and improved marketing income ((easy catch))) increases net worth - its not a hugely risky investment - its a no brainer.

Do you really think we'd sell 60k STs, let alone fill the stadium, if we were a UEFA Cup side? Istanbul raised popularity immensely, and a lot of people who go now are going on the basis that we'll be a title challenging side soon. If that ceases to be a realistic possibility, then attendance numbers wont be quite as high. We certainly werent a sellout week in, week out, in the seasons running upto 2005.

[stuartb]

Do you really think we'd sell 60k STs, let alone fill the stadium, if we were a UEFA Cup side? .

I really like this site as it encourages opinions and discussions without bashing anyone who is somewhat reasonable.

To your point possibly not - but bigger stadium + great marketing easily increases net value = successful business case for the septics so long as we maintain a 'reasonable*' level of success

* Dont disagree that anything less than CL and pushing for 1st isnt reasonable but the bankers might

[Craig_H]

It doesnt really matter what the bankers say in that respect mate, if we're not a CL side and perceived to either be in a title challenge, or on the cusp of one, the people will simply stop coming through the turnstiles. The only thing that'll keep sellout crowds is success on the pitch, no matter what the bankers say, or what G&H's business strategies are.