Why why why?

[DannyMan2006]

What i meant was, scoring a number of winners in the last couple of minutes - when that happens say, 5 or 6 times, i think it's a tad fortunate from the point of view that, when time is running out rapidly, it's rare that you can just KEEP nicking the winner.

How often has it happened so often for us in one recent season?

Wigan at home, Boro at home, Pompey away, City away, Fulham away etc...when you get something go for you that happens so rarely ordinarily, i'd say fortune has smiled on you a little Long may it continue.

I don't think it's coincidence that the best teams score late goals on a concistant basis. Players get tired and lose concentration late on, the team attacking will throw more balls forward and ask more questions, whilst the defending team will forget about keeping the ball and keep hoofing it straight back to the attacking team.

In situations a team needs players with a cool head and the better teams tend to have them, as they're the better players in general. It also comes down to each teams beliefs. Anyone who watched Man Utd v Spurs last year will remember Spurs throwing away a lead after dominating the game. As soon as Man Utd got THAT penalty everyone watching knew that they would go onto win that game. And judging by the improvement in play of Man Utd and the collapse of Spurs, I would say the players knew it too.

Scoring late goals can come down to the same factors. Belief in your own ability, or a knowledge that a certain team will keep the pressure on.

I remember the previous season we had a spell where we ended up conceding late goals. It got to the point where our team and fans would end up gripped by anxiety, sure in the knowledge we would let some rubbish team nick a draw after we had dominated play but failed to kill them off.

[Craig_H]

I don't think it's coincidence that the best teams score late goals on a concistant basis. Players get tired and lose concentration late on, the team attacking will throw more balls forward and ask more questions, whilst the defending team will forget about keeping the ball and keep hoofing it straight back to the attacking team.

In situations a team needs players with a cool head and the better teams tend to have them, as they're the better players in general. It also comes down to each teams beliefs. Anyone who watched Man Utd v Spurs last year will remember Spurs throwing away a lead after dominating the game. As soon as Man Utd got THAT penalty everyone watching knew that they would go onto win that game. And judging by the improvement in play of Man Utd and the collapse of Spurs, I would say the players knew it too.

Scoring late goals can come down to the same factors. Belief in your own ability, or a knowledge that a certain team will keep the pressure on.

I remember the previous season we had a spell where we ended up conceding late goals. It got to the point where our team and fans would end up gripped by anxiety, sure in the knowledge we would let some rubbish team nick a draw after we had dominated play but failed to kill them off.

Not disputing any of that. As i said, if it's something we continue to do, the luck element diminishes more and more, the more frequently we do it.

[Scratch]

Damn, go away for a bit and there's hundreds of replies!

One point that jumped out tho is the comments about us overturning deficits in the last 10 minutes, only to turn them round and win...guess our options on the bench must have saved usin these matches

I still think United are the only side out of the top three who have weakened considerably this summer. Whether we'll feel the loss of Alonso is yet to be seen...i was always of the opinion that he wasn't irreplacable, and there we better, more advanced players out there...only time will tell on this one. Chelsea worry me a little, but they haven't really improved their squad this summer, so we shall have to see how they do with the same players under another new coach...i'd be a damn sight more worried about them had Hiddink stayed.

[SK]

can all of you whining cunts just shut it?

we'll win the league this time round, i know we will, and you can quote me on that. torres will not be injured as much this season, because he did not just have a hectic year behing him (unlike the year before) and has had a good rest and a good nurture back to full fitness, so there we have our 25+ goals next year.

stevie's gonna be motivated as hell, as his time is (slowly) running out, and he'd want to win #19 as soon as posibble

riera, kuyt, benny and babel will chip in with their goals, assists and general hard work,

we'll have more of an attacking thread this year from insua and johnson, we'll be able to break teams down by pushing more players forward and with aquilani and lucas we'll start our attacks higher up the pitch and will put more pressure on defending teams

and last but not least lucas will shine this season

ONWARDS AND UPWARD MY RED BROTHERS

[RedReet]

Why pick the last 4 years when Agger and Skrtel weren't here? Take last season or the last 2 when they were, and both Manu & Chelsea conceded less when they both had to play more games (in other competitions) along the way. You could also argue that the conservative style of football we played in the first half of the season naturally reduces the chance of conceding goals.

Also, when I say far superior, I'm not just talking about goals conceded, I'm talking about the footballing ability and experience at the highest level. The likes of Evra, Ferdinand, Vidic, Cole, Bossingwa, Terry and Carvalho have experience at the top and offer more in other areas.

I'll be interested to see how Johnson does when he has the pressure of a big club on his shoulders. Insua looks a decent prospect. Carra is a legend, but his form has dropped over the last two seasons. I don't rate Skrtel. Agger is the only player I would put in the same class as that group, but thats based on the potential I saw in his first season. He may never return that promise.

I picked the last four years because Rafa has been here five and I didn’t think it was fair to judge him on his first year when he was mainly playing with an inherited team trying to get used to a new system.

Regardless of who we have in defence, I think we’ll always be strong as Rafa has them so well drilled. Remember, there were a lot of people who thought Carra wasn’t good enough before Rafa took over and even more that thought Sami was past it at times. Skrtel and Agger clearly have the tools to be top players, just need to remain injury free. The only thing I see them lacking from your points is experience, which will only come with time.

I also think that Aurelio was better than both Cole and Evra last year. Excluding the Chelsea match, he was excellent every time I watched him.

[RedReet]

and last but not least lucas will shine this season

[DeeTheDog]

I also think that Aurelio was better than both Cole and Evra last year. Excluding the Chelsea match, he was excellent every time I watched him.

Johnson was also EPL right back of the season

[dww]

It's not nicking late winners that i meant was fortunate. But doing it over and over again, a number of times that's way beyond what normally happens, is what i was referring to.

I tend to think that if something happens, which very rarely happens, there's a touch of good fortune smiling on you.

I'm not sure that it has been that rare for United (or other dominant teams) over the years. I'd be interested to see that stats but every season I seem to see people saying things along the lines of "if it weren't for the late goals against x, y & z then they wouldn't have won the league". I'm pretty sure it is just something that is usually correlated by being a dominant attacking team.

[Craig_H]

I wasnt talking about it being rare for Man Utd, i said it was something that doesnt generally happen frequently for us, until last season.

[dww]

I wasnt talking about it being rare for Man Utd, i said it was something that doesnt generally happen frequently.

I'm not confining it to United - I would suspect that a lot of teams who win the league will be the ones that get the late winners and that it is correlated to the attacking intent and quality of the team. To me it is similar to the old "the more I practice the luckier I get" thing.

[Neil Young]

I'm not confining it to United - I would suspect that a lot of teams who win the league will be the ones that get the late winners and that it is correlated to the attacking intent and quality of the team. To me it is similar to the old "the more I practice the luckier I get" thing.

There's also a wearing down process whereby weaker opponents get more tired as the game goes on.

Basically good teams score when they need to more often than not good teams. As a result they gather more points and it is this that defines them as good teams.

I realise that sounds tautologous but that's the nature of what we're discussing - good teams win matches because if they didn't they wouldn't be good.

[Jimbob]

I think we will finish second again, Only just mind you..And not to Man utd but to Chelsea...They do have a very strong squad..Very good depth.

[dww]

I don't think that there is much fortune in knicking late winners to be honest. I believe most goals go in in the last 15 minutes and most goals are scored (obviously) by the better teams therefore it seems likely that the better teams are likely to win a good number of games with late goals. Added to that the better teams are more likely to tire out lesser teams and thus gain a goal late on through opponents mistakes.

There's also a wearing down process whereby weaker opponents get more tired as the game goes on.

Basically good teams score when they need to more often than not good teams. As a result they gather more points and it is this that defines them as good teams.

I realise that sounds tautologous but that's the nature of what we're discussing - good teams win matches because if they didn't they wouldn't be good.

That's pretty much what I was saying in the post above.

In some ways it is tautological but at the same time I think it is important to make it clear. Essentially I think the problem is that it is a probabilistic argument and people tend to look for trends in this sort of data while not accounting for fluctuations and or reasonable perturbations (here the idea late goals are inherently more likely due to tiredness) around a simple model (that a better team is more likely to score at any time of a game).

[Neil Young]

That's pretty much what I was saying in the post above.

In some ways it is tautological but at the same time I think it is important to make it clear. Essentially I think the problem is that it is a probabilistic argument and people tend to look for trends in this sort of data while not accounting for fluctuations and or reasonable perturbations (here the idea late goals are inherently more likely due to tiredness) around a simple model (that a better team is more likely to score at any time of a game).

I'm just watching 'Yes, Prime Minister.' You sound a bit like Sir Humphrey there.

[BobTheCharmer]

I've read and listened to a few bits and bobs over the past few days on the forthcoming premiership season and i'm genuinely ****ed off with the manner in which these so called experts are dismissing us so freely. Andy Gray's words straight after the final whistle yesterday really got my blood boiling when he said 'on the evidence of today i think United and Chelsea will be the teams to beat once again' hello we finished above Chelsea last season you ****ing dickhead, weren't far away from piping United either.
I'm not usually one that reads too much into what the likes of Gray etc say but i'm baffled as to why they just never consider us when it comes to being big contenders for the title.

people are entitled to their own opinions and considering only Utd or Chelsea win the title these days they're covering their own arses!