The new season is here!!! (Well, almost)

[Tee]

I also hope Anfield is back to its noisy and intimidating best this season! the players will really need the 12th man out there if we are to achieve our goals and there can be no better sight than a packed Anfield backing the team in the way we know they can.

I love it, absolutely love it! And I cannot wait for tomorrow!!!

[Mostar]

Very much looking forward to this season. I was depressed as **** by this point last year. I was trying to justify to myself that the players we signed were good enough.

Only thing I worry about is that we might be exposed a little defensively down our left side, but equally, I expect alot more goals to come from this side. Our CB's are going to have to step up this season too. Agger needs a big season.

What a change of events a year can do.

I also cannot control my excitement and last year I didn't even want season to start.

If we can keep our key players healthy especially at the back I think this year may be the beginning of something special.

[Tee]

If we can keep our key players healthy especially at the back I think this year may be special.

[Mostar]

We'll end up 4th accoring to this approach.

http://transferpriceindex.com/2011/08/the-transfer-price-index-201112-premier-league-predictions/

The Transfer Price Index 2011/12 Premier League Predictions

◦Definitions Used
◦CTPP = Current Transfer Purchase Price. The player’s original transfer value adjusted for football inflation using the same method as the Retail Price Index. (Andriy Shevchenko remains the highest CTPP, his £30.8m transfer in July 2006 now worth £68.2m)
◦Sq£ = The cost of a club’s squad for a season in CTPP
◦£XI = The average cost (in CTPP) of the starting XI’s in Premier League matches that season
◦MSq£ = Multiple of average Sq£. Not how much a squad costs in CTPP, but how much more (or less) it costs versus the average squad that season.
The original Pay As You Play book focused on £XI and demonstrated that as the Premier League era has progressed, the final positions in the league table have become ever more correlated to £XI. As a retrospective measure £XI is unrivalled in showing how close the relationship is between money and success.

Since publication of PAYP in October 2010, subsequent analysis of the Transfer Price Index database has shown how MSq£ can be used as a predictive measure and with significant[1] correlation to final league positions. The new season represents the first opportunity to use MSq£ as a predictive model before the season starts.

Important Note: The cut-off point for the initial analysis was 11th August, some 3 weeks before the end of the transfer window. Final Sq£ for a season can only be calculated after all transfers for a season are complete (i.e. 1st February). This article will be updated after 1st September and 1st February with the latest Sq£ data fed into the model. The original predictions will be tracked and any changes clearly identified.

As we head into this coming season there is unprecedented imbalance in the distribution of the cost of squads in the league[2]. Over the history of the Premier League, teams that have the average squad cost for that season (MSq£ = 1) have typically finished in 11th place. As of 11th August 2011, only the top 6 had MSq£ > 1 and this is extremely unlikely to change.

The model clearly divides the PL into a number of bands. In our opinion, the only real scope for variation is the positioning within a band. This is based on trends in the Premier League era and some of these are detailed in the band narrative below. However, where the absolute MSq£ rankings and squad costs are very closely grouped, the subjective predictions of the TPI team have been used to rank the teams.




◦1. The “big 3”: Chelsea, Man City and Man Utd
Between them, Chelsea and United have 5 of the top 7 biggest CTPP transfers in their squads

Man City have the largest number of players in the top 10% of Premier League CTPP

It’s difficult to convey just how far these 3 are ahead of the rest in the MSq£ model. However, there is only a 2.5% chance of Man United finishing outside the top 3. For Chelsea and Man City it’s less than 1%

◦2 “Champions League aspirants” (4th to 6th):,Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal
The model has shown that if a club wants a better than 50% chance of getting a Champions League spot it needs MSq£ of at least 1.98. Neither Spurs, Liverpool or Arsenal are at that figure so the race for 4th could be extremely close. (Note: Arsenal tend to overachieve in the model. But with more clubs investing in players, and Arsenal losing some key ones, it may now be harder than before.)

◦3. “Europa League aspirants” (7th to 9th): Aston Villa, Sunderland and Everton
The model substantiates the perceived “glass ceiling” of the Premier League in more places than one. We are 95% certain that based on this seasons squad costs, none of Aston Villa, Everton and Sunderland will finish in the top 6.

It will certainly be interesting to see the fortunes of Everton vs Sunderland. Everton have a more expensive first XI with very little depth versus Sunderland with a less expensive first XI but a deeper squad.

◦4. “Mid-Table security” (10th and 11th): Newcastle and Fulham
We are 95% certain that there are only 12 teams that can possibly finish in the top 10.

The teams from these top 4 bands are joined only by Wolves.

◦5. “Survival as priority” (12th-16th): Wolves, Wigan and Stoke then Blackburn and Bolton
Five clubs covered by just £14m CTPP. We are 95% confident that four of them cannot finish in the top 10 and all have MSq£ close enough to the promoted sides to make a season long relegation battle likely. Lady Luck and injuries will dictate their finishing position as much as the MSq£ model.

The interesting team to watch here will be Stoke who look closer to the Soccernomics wages model rather than MSq£. Can they follow in the footsteps of Sam Allardyce’s Bolton team of the early noughties?

[PT: Their style of football is incredibly effective at overachieving, but is one that will surely need refining for loftier ambitions. But as with the Oakland A’s in Moneyball, expecting any more than healthy overachievement is unfair; winning titles is not realistic, but doing much better than they should be certainly is.]

◦6. “Relegation Favourites” (17th to 20th): West Brom, QPR, Norwich and Swansea
If a club wants to have a better than even chance of avoiding relegation it needs MSq£ of at least 0.2. Currently West Brom are fractionally over this threshold at 0.23 and QPR are the highest of the promoted clubs at 0.13

As it stands, QPR need to sign about £10m worth of players to reach this level, Norwich £12m and Swansea £14m. However due to the way MSq£ works as an average of all squad costs in the league, it’s more likely that even if one of the promoted clubs did go on a spending spree, at least one other team in the league would do the same and they still wouldn’t be over the 0.2 threshold.

Regarding the subjective predictions of the TPI Team, we have 15 teams either the same as their MSq£ rank or within 1 place

The only exceptions are:

◦West Brom We suggest 14th instead of 17th
◦Man Utd We think 1st instead of 3rd
◦Fulham We think 9th instead of 11th
◦Chelsea We think 3rd instead of 1st
◦Newcastle We think 12th instead of 10th
It will be interesting to see if we outperform the mode or prove horribly mistaken.

[Craig_H]

I am so excited for this!! The Enrique deal is the most exciting for me. We finally have a proper Left Back at the club who we can rely on. The balance of the team is now proper with Downing on the left too.

We could give some of the other big boys a serious run for their money this year! Super excited.

I think this is going to be a very important factor.

[doogle]

tick tock

[Craig_H]

Really excited now.

I've got two mates on the drive up with me tomorrow morning as well, which is pleasant.

[Pablo]

Really pleased to hear you've finally got some mates.

I take it they've never met you yet?

[Muddled]

I haven't read that TPI bumph, it looks like it's providing over-analysed analysis.

Surely you can't analyse fate, passion, luck and other unforeseen circumstances like, injuries to us and other teams, dealing with pressure, psychology etc.

I'm just gonna get giddy about the new season, because, well, we're Liverpool and my heart says we can win it and there is no better sport in the world.

Or perhaps I'm being narrow minded and should read it before I comment.

[ChesterDave]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/football_focus/14387584.stm

LAWRO'S PREDICTIONS

Liverpool v Sunderland

Liverpool have overhauled their squad since January and one or two of their fans are getting a bit carried away, saying they can challenge United for the title. I think they can challenge for fourth spot but they will not win the league with what they have got at the moment.

The Reds will miss Steven Gerrard at the start of the season so the quicker he is back from injury the better, but they have enough quality and competition for places in midfield anyway.

Sunderland have signed a lot of players this summer, and their boss Steve Bruce now has the strength in depth he lacked last season. They have spent a bit of money on Connor Wickham, who I think is going to be a really good player but he is still learning at the moment.

I cannot see the Black Cats getting any points at Anfield, and it might be five or six games before we know what they are made of but I can see them being safe in mid-table this season. They also have the resources to reassess in January if they need to get anyone else in then.

Prediction: 2-0

Football is back! Lawro with his tried and tested 2-0 prediction for Liverpool

[Muddled]

Oh how I hate his face.

[Vermilion]

I'm sooooo nervously excited today, haven't been so nervous about a new season for years and years, i can't sit still for a minute, walking around looking for stuff to do... but ending up back standing at my lap top all the time.

[Mostar]

Me too.

Cannot wait for "I believe" season to start..

[Exiled_red]

I'm so excited

[Vermilion]

Me too.

Cannot wait for "I believe" season to start..

The 'i believe' season, sure i've done that one before, was'nt it the one before the 'this time' season and after the 'in Rafa we trust' season, well atleast it's got to be better than the 'Oh ****e NO!' season we went into under Bodge.