Simon Mignolet

[Kenneth]

Nope[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQVsLM8dZ0k"]Pepe Reina - Where is my mind | Liverpool FC | 2012/2013 - YouTube[/ame]

The good and the bad. But he let a lot in that he should have saved.

[G]

But was still better than Mig has been as the stats show. Which is kindof the narrative, Mig is better than Pepe was, but he isn't. Grobellaar let in loads of stupid shots too.

[Cormack74]

Interesting analysis and thanks for posting Hemingway.

It may not be based on "science" but there seemed to be far more times during Reina's last couple of years when he conceded goals that looked soft(ish) compared to the Mig over his time with us. Clearly the facts don't back up this perception but Reina seemed to struggle far more (with what looked) like routine saves than he should have done IMO.

[G]

Reina's problems started when Xavi Valero left and he also seemed to put on a fair bit of weight which can't of helped with agility. He still had the other attributes that top keepers had and as we've seen, his save percentage was still decent. In reality though neither him nor Mig are the answer so I'm hoping Kloppo can find us some quality somewhere to replace Mig.

[Yozza]

I'll be surprised if Mig is our no. 1 next year

I'll also be very disappointed as I just don't think he's physical / vocal / aggressive / calm enough

& he can't clear the ball for ****

[ronanm]

At the end of the day, jk is going to try and massage the egos of what he has to live with until January. All this milner, mignolet, origi, lallan a praising is all that is. If they can step up to the mark, great, but otherwise he's just trying to do the best with what he has. Hopefully there's a defence in there somewhere.

[danperkins]

The weird thing about the 'Mignolet is a great shot-stopper' narrative: he really hasn't been for us. I'm not challenging his ability here, just his performance, but what type of things would we expect from a great shot-stopper? Saving a lot of shots, probably. And saving shots that other goalkeepers wouldn't save. In total, probably just conceding fewer goals than an average goalkeeper would concede from the same shots. And Mignolet hasn't done those things here.

His save percentage has been below the PL average for both of his years here, plus this season so far, and in each of those seasons we've let in more goals than we 'should've' based on the location and type of the shots we've faced. Mignolet's never put together a De Gea-like dominant spell of winning us points, which is what I'd really expect from a great shot-stopper, but he's actually been pretty poor at it for long stretches.

Just for comparison, in Pepe's last year, when he supposedly couldn't save anything, his save% was 68%. Mignolet's yet to better that here. We let in about three more goals than the models said we 'should've' that year, based on shot location/type; we let in eight more than expected in Mig's first year, and seven more than expected last season.

He's not the only factor in those things, but he is the biggest. It's probably more accurate to say that Mignolet can be a great shot-stopper than to say that he is one. Maybe the defence has held him back, maybe the manager - I suspect those funks he gets in whenever anything goes against him that ruin his next three matches play a really big role. But the point is that, for whatever reason, he's had bad runs of form. And if he could do other things - if he could command his box, or if he had great distribution, or if he communicated really well - he'd still be bringing value even when things weren't going well for him in goal. But he can't do those things, so for long spells he's been pretty much a non-entity.

The thing is, I don't think save% and expected goals performance is that indicative of shot-stopping ability. There's too much chance involved. But they're entirely indicative of shot-stopping performance, and that illustrates the disconnect between those two things. Shot-stopping, though definitely a skill and hugely valuable, is really pretty random. It's very easy to get on hot or cold streaks that have nothing to do with the keeper's ability, which is why I think it's a little less valuable than everyone's assuming. It's also why, when we look for real competition for Mignolet, whenever that time comes, we should be focusing on a lot of things other than just shot-stopping - distribution, communication, and commanding the box, all of which are much more consistent.

But everyone gets a new start under Klopp, and Mignolet made the most of his. The more compact defence should help. And since Mig is so much of a confidence player, maybe Klopp's motivational style unlocks something in him. Who knows. There's a keeper in there, somewhere.

Bloody hell man that's some post

[Assassin]

Good post from Hemingway.

However, I would like to add that being a good shotstopper from long distance is easier than from a closer range. I feel the way rodgers set up and disorganised the defence worked against Mignolet, the ratio of long range shots and closer range shots was skewed heavily towards closer range shots.

The reaction time required to stop closer range shots is inifinately shorter. Therefore, Mignolet's shot stopping statistics suffered badly from this.

I believe going forward the way Klopp sets up the defence will benefit Mignolet tremendously

[Buzzo]

The weird thing about the 'Mignolet is a great shot-stopper' narrative: he really hasn't been for us. I'm not challenging his ability here, just his performance, but what type of things would we expect from a great shot-stopper? Saving a lot of shots, probably. And saving shots that other goalkeepers wouldn't save. In total, probably just conceding fewer goals than an average goalkeeper would concede from the same shots. And Mignolet hasn't done those things here.

His save percentage has been below the PL average for both of his years here, plus this season so far, and in each of those seasons we've let in more goals than we 'should've' based on the location and type of the shots we've faced. Mignolet's never put together a De Gea-like dominant spell of winning us points, which is what I'd really expect from a great shot-stopper, but he's actually been pretty poor at it for long stretches.

Just for comparison, in Pepe's last year, when he supposedly couldn't save anything, his save% was 68%. Mignolet's yet to better that here. We let in about three more goals than the models said we 'should've' that year, based on shot location/type; we let in eight more than expected in Mig's first year, and seven more than expected last season.

He's not the only factor in those things, but he is the biggest. It's probably more accurate to say that Mignolet can be a great shot-stopper than to say that he is one. Maybe the defence has held him back, maybe the manager - I suspect those funks he gets in whenever anything goes against him that ruin his next three matches play a really big role. But the point is that, for whatever reason, he's had bad runs of form. And if he could do other things - if he could command his box, or if he had great distribution, or if he communicated really well - he'd still be bringing value even when things weren't going well for him in goal. But he can't do those things, so for long spells he's been pretty much a non-entity.

The thing is, I don't think save% and expected goals performance is that indicative of shot-stopping ability. There's too much chance involved. But they're entirely indicative of shot-stopping performance, and that illustrates the disconnect between those two things. Shot-stopping, though definitely a skill and hugely valuable, is really pretty random. It's very easy to get on hot or cold streaks that have nothing to do with the keeper's ability, which is why I think it's a little less valuable than everyone's assuming. It's also why, when we look for real competition for Mignolet, whenever that time comes, we should be focusing on a lot of things other than just shot-stopping - distribution, communication, and commanding the box, all of which are much more consistent.

But everyone gets a new start under Klopp, and Mignolet made the most of his. The more compact defence should help. And since Mig is so much of a confidence player, maybe Klopp's motivational style unlocks something in him. Who knows. There's a keeper in there, somewhere.

Excellent post.

Clearly you are far too intelligent to be posting frequently on here .
But when you do, your posts are always a great read.

[RedReet]

Good post from Hemingway.

However, I would like to add that being a good shotstopper from long distance is easier than from a closer range. I feel the way rodgers set up and disorganised the defence worked against Mignolet, the ratio of long range shots and closer range shots was skewed heavily towards closer range shots.

The reaction time required to stop closer range shots is inifinately shorter. Therefore, Mignolet's shot stopping statistics suffered badly from this.

I believe going forward the way Klopp sets up the defence will benefit Mignolet tremendously

Hard to know how true that is without the stats, but I do remember thinking when Rodgers first moved to three at the back that the idea was to restrict the number shots inside the box by crowding it out and remember commenting how much better Mig looked because we were forcing more teams to shoot from distance.

[Alex]

I think its worth noting that we are the joint 3rd best defense in the league this season in terms of goals conceded.

Our bigger problem seems to be scoring goals, currently we have a goal difference of -2. Which is appauling for any teams with aspirations of winning things.

[Alex]

Infact, looking at it. Only West Brom and Watford have scored fewer goals than us this season.

[dizzycat]

Infact, looking at it. Only West Brom and Watford have scored fewer goals than us this season.

Wow, didn't realize that. We've had several "match winning" keepers in the past, but also some absolute catastrophes both on and off the pitch. Remember when we signed Kirkland and Carson.. What on earth was the thinking going on there.

Mig needs to win us some games this season, then he can keep his place.

[gratziani]

Infact, looking at it. Only West Brom and Watford have scored fewer goals than us this season.

That has been our biggest failing putting the ball in the net.

nil goals versus Spurs, Hammers and Arsenal

7 goals at home all season including 3 in one game against Villa

if we had any kind of home form we would be top 4

[frank the tank]

That has been our biggest failing putting the ball in the net.

nil goals versus Spurs, Hammers and Arsenal

7 goals at home all season including 3 in one game against Villa

if we had any kind of home form we would be top 4

i don't think it would take a miracle to still get top 4 this season. Or even someone like West Ham or Southampton to sneak it (although that is more unlikely over the course of the whole season)

It's early days but in reality we have Arsenal, United and Spurs (boo-hoo) all away out of the way.

I have said that if we can get to xmas and be within 10 points of the top, then i wouldnt put a title challenge past us (not because we are that good, but i actually think the standard of the league is ****e......it's likely that Aguero will only play something like 25 league games and still be top scorer!!)

IF Firmino and Benteke can get fit and add something to the first 11.....and we get a song out of Sturridge in 70% of the games, then I think we will get top 4.