Title Race

[Robbie-9-Fowler]

Table after 11 games last season
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Table after 11 games this season and difference in points
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An outside chance of 4th is a ridiculously pessimistic view.

Chelsea and Spurs may not have kicked on but then neither of we - our performances can still be a little disjointed but we are actually grinding out wins we would not have got 12-18 months ago.

United are an aging team and the longer Moyes is with them the more the sitting back will become the norm and teams will pick them off for goals and they will lose the drive till the 95th minute they had under Fergie. If Moyes' training methods take their toll and they lose RVP for a prolonged spell of matches they would be screwed.

We're second, much improved on last year and improving still during the season. We have had a makeshift defence with a few injuries, had Couthino out and we were missing Suarez for 5 games yet are still second.

We have a very realistic chance of 4th and I think that we should actually be looking for a top 3 finish. If, and it is a big if, Man City keep faltering (and thats going to depend on how much constant rotating they do) and Chelsea keep insisting on relying on old hasbeen strikers then there is no reason why we can not finish above them too.

That table just proves the point I am about to make, yes we have made a good start but I think talk of the title is still very premature. You say we're 11 points better off from last season and although that is true we have had pretty generous fixtures this year compared to our tough start last year.

From our 11 games this season we are in fact 4 points better off when we compare how those games panned out last season. To me that tells more of the story than the table you put up, I'm not knocking us by the way I'm just saying.

So far I would say we have had 3/4 games you could count as 'tough' or 'tricky' games. Those being;

United (h) we won 1-0
Swansea (a) we drew 2-2
Newcastle (a) we drew 2-2
Arsenal (a) we lost 2-0

You could now include Southampton in there after the start they have made but we lost that 1-0

So we've had 5 tricky games (arguably) and we've only won 1, drew 2 and lost 2. There is still plenty of work to be done and I would be made up with 4th if I'm honest.

[Exiled_red]

December will be the key. 7 games in all, including Norwich, West Ham and Cardiff all at home. Plus Hull away. Spurs away in the middle of that lot, and then the City/Chelsea double header over Christmas. If we can win every single one of those 'winnable' games and get something out of City/Chelsea, we should start to reassess in terms of title ambitions. At the moment it's not something I'm thinking about - just delighted to be where we are without having fully clicked into top gear yet. But a good December and it'll be hard not to feel a bit giddy.

This is spot on.

I don't want to belittle what we have done so far, but in fairness we have had a fairly easy start, lets see where how we do against the top sides, if in the new year we are in a similar position and have got some good results in the big games and should be full of confidence, from there anything is possible. If we have struggled in those games and find ourselves slipping down the table we could find ourselves struggling, as I have a feeling that the top 6 this season is going to be very close points wise

[peekay]

Annoying that the two games we've lost were against 1st and 3rd.

I know we beat United be we have got to start getting some results against the big sides. Routinely beating the dross is a good habit to get into though, a good platform.

Handing out drubbings to dross sides and occasionally winning against top 6 sides should enable us to guarantee Champions League. Our GD is also very very good and should help us in the CL places.

As you said in the previous post January 1 will give us a very good idea of where we are. If we are still within five points of the top places, and we make signings who have Sturridge/Coutinho level impact on the first team, then it is time to get excited.

[Phoenix07]

December will be the key. 7 games in all, including Norwich, West Ham and Cardiff all at home. Plus Hull away. Spurs away in the middle of that lot, and then the City/Chelsea double header over Christmas. If we can win every single one of those 'winnable' games and get something out of City/Chelsea, we should start to reassess in terms of title ambitions. At the moment it's not something I'm thinking about - just delighted to be where we are without having fully clicked into top gear yet. But a good December and it'll be hard not to feel a bit giddy.

There's a way to go yet before we can start thinking of titles. Next up is Everton away...let's just keep going one game at a time, try and avoid the bipolar reaction to victories and defeats, and see if we're still in contention with 10 games to go. At the moment anything is possible, from 1st to 7th, but there's a definite feeling of momentum building.

These two posts sum it up.

I still think 5th/6th position is realistic for us in terms of squad depth (sorry ChesterDave). However, when you chuck in momentum, confidence, and a bit of luck, who knows what might happen.

If we're still high and flying in the table by the time the FA Cup starts, then things could get interesting.

The season just doesn't have a feel of challenging for the title. It's more of a hope rather than expectancy and delivering. I don't think many at the club genuinely believe we're title contenders. When the pressure starts to ramp up, I think we'll falter, but if we don't, then things will change big time.

I feel sorry for Rodgers in a way, because a poor December and folk will start questioning whether he deserves a contract extension.

The difference between now and 08/09 is that back then, we had a team that was used to coming from behind to win. We had to do it several times that season too, and it all culminated in a strong mentality, resilience, sprinkled with extraordinary talent in Reina, Hyypia, Carragher Alonso, Mascherano, Gerrard, Torres, Kuyt and in form Benayoun and Arbeloa, all of whom had experience in winning from the brink before. The current squad doesn't have that. It's lacking in a number of players who have played together during tough times, to come through and win on the big stage.

If we can display mental strength and resilience when it's needed, then I'd be much more confident. In the meantime, I'm just going to enjoy where we are, and not get too carried away,

[Fosterbloke]

I don't subscribe to the 'easy fixtures' idea as teams like Aston Villa (Arsenal), West Brom (Man Utd), Newcastle (Chelsea) and Sunderland (Man City) have beaten the very best of the league.

Our only disappointments were Newcastle (should have beaten 10 men) and Southampton (4 centre backs?!).

Once we've played our other challengers for the top 4 places (Everton, Man City, Chelsea, Spurs) and come away with favourable results THEN we can discuss title or even top 4 credentials.

I'm sticking with my signature prediction!

[Norbs]

You're way off with the 2nd prediction though fella

[Fosterbloke]

You're way off with the 2nd prediction though fella

[I, Ravel Morrison]

Agree with those saying "let's have a good Dec first"". IF we do and it's capped off by a glorious Jan signing, well...

[The_weatherman]

These two posts sum it up.

I still think 5th/6th position is realistic for us in terms of squad depth (sorry ChesterDave). However, when you chuck in momentum, confidence, and a bit of luck, who knows what might happen.

If we're still high and flying in the table by the time the FA Cup starts, then things could get interesting.

The season just doesn't have a feel of challenging for the title. It's more of a hope rather than expectancy and delivering. I don't think many at the club genuinely believe we're title contenders. When the pressure starts to ramp up, I think we'll falter, but if we don't, then things will change big time.

I feel sorry for Rodgers in a way, because a poor December and folk will start questioning whether he deserves a contract extension.

The difference between now and 08/09 is that back then, we had a team that was used to coming from behind to win. We had to do it several times that season too, and it all culminated in a strong mentality, resilience, sprinkled with extraordinary talent in Reina, Hyypia, Carragher Alonso, Mascherano, Gerrard, Torres, Kuyt and in form Benayoun and Arbeloa, all of whom had experience in winning from the brink before. The current squad doesn't have that. It's lacking in a number of players who have played together during tough times, to come through and win on the big stage.

If we can display mental strength and resilience when it's needed, then I'd be much more confident. In the meantime, I'm just going to enjoy where we are, and not get too carried away,

I really doubt that, it has taken some time but he has really won me over, I'm a bit more sceptical than some about our chances this season, but that may just be due to my tendencies to reverse jinx things

Rodgers is doing a really, really good job IMO, he's learning and adapting well, changes things and takes chances. He needs to sign maybe three or four quality players and we'd be looking very good, even if we finish sixth.

[BobTheCharmer]

So last season our current points total would have had us in 4th.

[tanner]

4th or better is possible, but I think it depends on how things start going at Chelsea, Manu, Spurs and City. I think its fair to say that all of them other than Spurs have had poor starts by their own standards and Spurs have a very good squad but could start gelling very soon.

A big thing for us will be Suarez and where he is in January and of course the fitness of Gerrard and Coutinho. If anything takes us out of the top 4 it'll be lack of squad depth.

[RedReet]

That table just proves the point I am about to make, yes we have made a good start but I think talk of the title is still very premature. You say we're 11 points better off from last season and although that is true we have had pretty generous fixtures this year compared to our tough start last year.

From our 11 games this season we are in fact 4 points better off when we compare how those games panned out last season. To me that tells more of the story than the table you put up, I'm not knocking us by the way I'm just saying.

So far I would say we have had 3/4 games you could count as 'tough' or 'tricky' games. Those being;

United (h) we won 1-0
Swansea (a) we drew 2-2
Newcastle (a) we drew 2-2
Arsenal (a) we lost 2-0

You could now include Southampton in there after the start they have made but we lost that 1-0

So we've had 5 tricky games (arguably) and we've only won 1, drew 2 and lost 2. There is still plenty of work to be done and I would be made up with 4th if I'm honest.

I think you are using hindsight to pick our ‘tricky’ fixtures to emphasise your point.

Villa were on the back of a big morale boosting win against Arsenal and we beat them at their place. If we’d have dropped points there it would have been seen as a tricky fixture.

Even though we were expected the beat Sunderland, they had just sacked DiCanio which often gets a positive reaction from the players.

Even Stoke at home, we always struggle against them so again was in no way straightforward.

[RedReet]

I don't subscribe to the 'easy fixtures' idea as teams like Aston Villa (Arsenal), West Brom (Man Utd), Newcastle (Chelsea) and Sunderland (Man City) have beaten the very best of the league.

Our only disappointments were Newcastle (should have beaten 10 men) and Southampton (4 centre backs?!).

Once we've played our other challengers for the top 4 places (Everton, Man City, Chelsea, Spurs) and come away with favourable results THEN we can discuss title or even top 4 credentials.

I'm sticking with my signature prediction!

Missed this.

I agree.

[PTP]

i think it's just a bit too early to think about challenging/winning the league

but it's great that we've put ourselves in this position and from here anything can happen.

i've said since before the start of the season, it's all down to keeping our key players or so fit.

mignolet
johnson
agger
enrique
lucas
gerrard
coutinho
suarez
sturridge

but we've now also got the likes of henderson, toure, skrtel, sakho all with strong arguments for being 'key' players plus we still have a few options to give us cover, Cissokho/Allen/Moses/Sterling

we're in a good position.

it's vital though that we keep mignolet fit as well as suarez/sturridge

they are the two areas we seriously lack decent cover.

if those 8/9 players i first listed play in as many of the remaining games as possible then we are capable of beating anyone.


the other thing is the next month or so will determine everything for all the clubs i reckon,

currently the top 8 is ridiculous, 6 points separating them, with the team in 8th arguably the strongest squad.

come January the 1st - we should now where we stand in terms of a title challenge....

we could be top, but equally we could find ourselves 8th

realistically - i want us to be picking up about 15/16 points from the next 8 games (24 points) winning the games we should, and getting draws in those tough games -

in fact i'd argue that 3 draws is better than a win and two losses - cause although the points are the same, the draws mean the other teams don't get away from us.

so something like that is acheivable and realistic

do that, find ourselves on 36 points or more after December and then i think we have a real shout at a title challenge.

Add one or two quality players in january to give us that extra push, plus the feel good factor and who knows.


i won't be getting excited though until december is done.

[PTP]

however i will add again it's nice to have given us a good start and a chance.

for years i've got pissed off with all the 'if the season started december 1st, we'd have won the league' arguments.