FA Cup v Villa

[S-RED]

Matip certainly won't manage Mancs, Burnley, Mancs in 8 days; nor Naby, nor possibly Thiago

[rodo]

reckon UTD will go strong in the cup especially if we beat them in the league

[Pablo]

That’s 7 Premier League draws from our last 8 without having reached the 6th round.

**** me, that's shocking. Wonder what the probability of that happening is?

[fabinho]

especially if we beat them in the league

Well, if we haven't got a fit centerback for Sunday, then I don't think we'll need to worry about that.

[Scratch]

Well, if we haven't got a fit centerback for Sunday, then I don't think we'll need to worry about that.

That's the spirit, keep it up!

[Doc_Piptorious]

**** me, that's shocking. Wonder what the probability of that happening is?

78124/1 are the odds for it to happen 7 times in a row but no sure what the odds are for 7 out of 8 draws.

the 78124/1 figure comes from there being a supposed 4/1 chance of a Premier league club drawing another Premier league club in either the 3rd or 4th round, then pumping that into an acca calculator for seven times.

More than a bit loose and fast as a way to get a figure but the odds of it happening the way it has for us have to be pretty massive.

[Pablo]

78124/1 are the odds for it to happen 7 times in a row but no sure what the odds are for 7 out of 8 draws.

the 78124/1 figure comes from there being a supposed 4/1 chance of a Premier league club drawing another Premier league club in either the 3rd or 4th round, then pumping that into an acca calculator for seven times.

More than a bit loose and fast as a way to get a figure but the odds of it happening the way it has for us have to be pretty massive.

Nice job. Yeah if it it's anywhere in that ballpark then it's dodgy as ****

Especially when you consider City's draws over the same period

[fabinho]

That's the spirit, keep it up!

Normally, after a bit of bad form, I'd say this is the ideal game to get back at it, but if Matip isn't fit then we're ****ed

[ChesterDave]

Think those odds are over-estimated. 4/1 odds for a PL team drawing a PL team int the 4th is far too high.

There are 4 third rounds draws in that stat so with 64 teams being in the 4th round and us being 1 of them there are 19 chances for us to be drawn against a PL side and 44 to be drawn against a second tier or lower side

In 2017/18 the 4th round fixture have 10 other PL teams in and 21 non PL teams to it was 2/1 we would draw one.
The 5th round tie versus Chelsea last season had 9 other PL teams in and 6 non-PL so would be odds on to happen.
This season there are 13 other PL teams assuming Southampton win their postponed tie v Shrewsbury.
Shrewsbury, our 1 non-PL opponent, were in a draw where the potential split was 14 (PL or 17 (non)

Its high but by no means ridiculous. Its just frustrating to see other teams get the opposite side of the coin.