Darwin Núñez

[Irishnev]

Arguably until he does breakeven on XG, he by definition isnt good at finishing?

He stands at

2022-23 9 goals 14.4 xg
2023-24 4 goals 6.8 xg

His ratio has actually dropped from .625 to .6, so he has not improved just in terms of accuracy.

His xg per 90 has gone up from 0.76 to 1.03, so he is making more chances for himself. Obviously doesnt take into account his assists. He has the same xA per game as last season (.3) but has massively overperformed on the numbers 4 assists 2.1 xa. Be difficult to keep that up, but it shows that he is adapting and very much a team player.

Stats never tell the whole story, but equally they do show that he is not a top class finisher, yet.

Im not his biggest fan, but I do think he is doing enough to stay in the team on his current form, and he is combining well with Mo. Certainly if he smashes City then we will all be very happy, and will give him a moratorium until after Christmas.

Over his career he has statistically underperformed his xG except for the season before he joined us when he massively exceeded it Haaland has always exceeded his xG but his all round game is poor. Haaland is the perfect definition of “just a goal scorer” and still a bit of a flat track bully.

If Nunez broke even on xG then it would be great

[RedReet]

I have his PL xg at 5.03, so basically if that offside by a toe counted, would have been close to to even. Although, when he scores an overhead kick from 35 yards against City, that too should even it out too.

Is the 6.8xg all comps?

Edit: Can't be all comps if only 4 goals.

[RedReet]

This site actually has him with positive xg for all comps.

https://footystats.org/players/uruguay/darwin-nunez

[danperkins]

He is still a bit raw and excitable and he is never going to be a player that has finesse and guile. Said this previously, his passing and first touch just aren't his strong points and never will be imo. But he certainly is an instinctual striker, his work rate is fantastic and he doesn't seem to get flustered when he misses chances. It's a great attribute to have as a young striker, he has a great never give up attitude, great physical attributes, top work rate, great strike of a ball & I would imagine make him a real handful to mark. He was disappointing last season but you could see that he would be a player that has a lot of goals in him, even if he isn't the prettiest watch.

Imo he has definitely improved his game this season, he looks happier, not forcing it as much and is playing with more freedom. I can understand why some aren't his biggest fans as he can be a frustrating watch but this season there are alot of positives to take from his performances thus far imo and he really seems to have developed a nice understanding with Mo too. Looking forward to see how he progresses & another goal vs City would be lovely.

[Charly]

This site actually has him with positive xg for all comps.

https://footystats.org/players/uruguay/darwin-nunez

Yeah, sorry. PL only

Need to judge it against proper teams and not the crap we play against in the cups [emoji16]

https://understat.com/player/10720

[RedReet]

Yeah, sorry. PL only

Need to judge it against proper teams and not the crap we play against in the cups [emoji16]

https://understat.com/player/10720

Seems higher than most other sites, but we don't need stats to agree that he should be finishing more of his chances.

[Charly]

Over his career he has statistically underperformed his xG except for the season before he joined us when he massively exceeded it

Thats interesting.

In a league where he may have had more time, or perhaps he had purple patch of form.

Personally I dont think strikers tend to suddenly become great at finishing if they were average before (or below average if the xg breakeven sets the average).

But Nunez brings other qualities, and its important to get the "mix" right in the front 3. Firmino was for me the player that linked the 2 goal scorers together, and Nunez is nowhere near him technically (Gakpo being the correct successor in my mind).

And yet, this season Nunez has been getting a similar goal total to Firmino, and also assisting a lot too. On paper he doesnt work, but he is still producing the goods.

Breaking even on the XG will put him into the 30 league goal bracket easily. He is getting an xg of a goal a game. That is elite level if he can pull it off. Its a very high ceiling.

Im also doubtful he can produce those numbers consistently, but I guess the other thing to note is the team is still a bit dysfunctional at the moment, so he may get even more chances when we click a bit better.

I guess by the end of the season we will have more perspective, but I am sure he will be a rollercoaster of a ride in the mean time.

[RedReet]

Thats interesting.

In a league where he may have had more time, or perhaps he had purple patch of form.

Personally I dont think strikers tend to suddenly become great at finishing if they were average before (or below average if the xg breakeven sets the average).

But Nunez brings other qualities, and its important to get the "mix" right in the front 3. Firmino was for me the player that linked the 2 goal scorers together, and Nunez is nowhere near him technically (Gakpo being the correct successor in my mind).

And yet, this season Nunez has been getting a similar goal total to Firmino, and also assisting a lot too. On paper he doesnt work, but he is still producing the goods.

Breaking even on the XG will put him into the 30 league goal bracket easily. He is getting an xg of a goal a game. That is elite level if he can pull it off. Its a very high ceiling.

Im also doubtful he can produce those numbers consistently, but I guess the other thing to note is the team is still a bit dysfunctional at the moment, so he may get even more chances when we click a bit better.

I guess by the end of the season we will have more perspective, but I am sure he will be a rollercoaster of a ride in the mean time.

Henry, Drogba, Suarez, Van Persie, Vardy are a few players that come to mind. Not necessarily poor finishers but certainly players that took a few years before becoming clinical. Could make a similar case about Mo as nobody would have predicted he'd become the player he is now when in his early 20's. Even Kane was a relative late comer and career could have went a completely direction if it wasn't for a bit of luck (as with a lot of players).

Basically don't agree that you need as naturally gifted as a Fowler or Shearer, some players will develop as they get older.

[RedReet]

On that note, I seen something recently that compared Nunez to Drogba. I didn't necessarily agree as I think Nunez looks much better that Drogba did early doors, but they were highlighting the inconsistencies, that both players are capable of being the best player on the pitch and simultaneously the worst in any given match (ha, same point as Red G made recently). But I can definitely see some similarities between the two.

[BG1973]

Yeah, sorry. PL only

Need to judge it against proper teams and not the crap we play against in the cups [emoji16]

https://understat.com/player/10720

chance conversion is chance conversion, regardless of the opposition.

[Kenneth]

Hmm, not really.

[BG1973]

It really is, you just get more of them.

[Kenneth]

It really is, you just get more of them.

Often more clear cut, under less pressure from inferior defenders, under less situational pressure, facing inferior goalkeepers. It’s not the same,

[BG1973]

It's the missing of clear cut chances that makes the most noise in here.

[Irishnev]

Henry, Drogba, Suarez, Van Persie, Vardy are a few players that come to mind. Not necessarily poor finishers but certainly players that took a few years before becoming clinical. Could make a similar case about Mo as nobody would have predicted he'd become the player he is now when in his early 20's. Even Kane was a relative late comer and career could have went a completely direction if it wasn't for a bit of luck (as with a lot of players).

Basically don't agree that you need as naturally gifted as a Fowler or Shearer, some players will develop as they get older.

I was watching a video of Shearer’s goals recently and by **** were the keepers ****. Remotely in the corner or high with pace and it was a goal - I wonder how he’d fare now