Darwin Núñez

[Cormack74]

Darwin is going to have a purple patch at some point - surely?

[Kenneth]

Hope so, during the AFCON would be ideal.

[red g]

Darwin is going to have a purple patch at some point - surely?

Not if he doesn't learn the offside rule

[vlahka]

All you naysayers are going to have egg on your faces by the end of the season! And I'll be there to sprinkle some salt and pepper and slap a piece of toast on your cheeks!

[Venton]

If he comes good I'll sprinkle chives on the top before I wolf it down

[Charly]

Define "purple patch" or "come good"?

Personally dont care how many goals he gets as long as he contributes and we win.

Still take the piss tho...

[Venton]

Define "purple patch" or "come good"?

Personally dont care how many goals he gets as long as he contributes and we win.

Still take the piss tho...

Not missing a good proportion of his sitters and not leading the league offside tables would do it for me.

[RedReet]

He must have literally just moved to the top of the offside charts and already it's a stick to beat him with. 11 is hardly a huge number and is just 1 ahead of Diaz ffs. Plus very few teams have a consistent starting CF this year, which is another reason why he's leading at this stage.

Let's also not forget that this Luton miss we hear about 100 times a day was technically offside too.

[Venton]

Individually you can write these things off, of, course, but when you put them all together... If it walks like a duck...

[RedReet]

Individually you can write these things off, of, course, but when you put them all together... If it walks like a duck...

He's had some inexcusable offsides last few games, but did anyone honestly think it was an issue a few weeks ago? It's something he's normally good at, timing his runs, but for whatever reason, he's off his game right now.

Just feels like more stat manipulation to create a narrative. CF in league's most attacking team caught offside most shocker.

[Craig_H]

Saw this on Twitter. I haven’t checked the numbers myself but assuming they’re correct,one would say there’s definitely room for improvement…

Big Chances Conversion % - 2023/24 Season so far:

Son- 8/10~ 80%
Salah- 10/17~ 59%
Wilson- 7/12~ 58%
Gordon- 4/7~ 57%
Palmer- 4/7~ 57%
Doucoure- 6/11- 54.5%
Solanke- 7/13~ 54%
Hee Chan- 4/8~ 50%
Isak- 7/14~ 50%
Edouard- 4/8~ 50%
Awoniyi- 4/8~ 50%
Mbeumo- 6/13~ 46%
Bowen- 6/13~ 46%
Saka- 3/7~ 43%
Cunha- 3/7~ 43%
Sterling- 3/7~ 43%
Nketiah- 3/7~ 43%
Haaland- 11/28~ 39%
Jackson- 6/16~ 37.5%
Mitoma- 3/8~ 37.5%
Richarlison- 3/8~ 37.5%
Soucek- 3/9~ 33%
DCL- 2/7~ 28.5%
Wissa- 2/8~ 25%
Enzo- 2/8~ 25%
Darwin- 3/18~ 17%
Rashford- 1/7~ 14%
Watkins- 2/15~ 13%
Hojlund- 0/8~ 0%

Included only players with minimum 7 big chances.

[Kenneth]

Always skeptical about a statistical analysis that relies on subjective judgement; what is a ‘big chance’ or even a ‘chance’ and who decides? We do know that Darwin misses more sitters than our other strikers because we’ve all seen it happen with our own eyes. For a chance with the keeper to beat from 8 yards out, Nunez is not the guy you want it to fall to unfortunately.

[Craig_H]

Always skeptical about a statistical analysis that relies on subjective judgement; what is a ‘big chance’ or even a ‘chance’ and who decides? We do know that Darwin misses more sitters than our other strikers because we’ve all seen it happen with our own eyes. For a chance with the keeper to beat from 8 yards out, Nunez is not the guy you want it to fall to unfortunately.

Agree with all this.

The one weird thing is how good he becomes in a Uruguay shirt.

[Kenneth]

The PL is higher quality that almost all international football and defences are better drilled /more cohesive. Maybe that’s part of it.

[Doc_Piptorious]

Saw this on Twitter. I haven’t checked the numbers myself but assuming they’re correct,one would say there’s definitely room for improvement…

That is based very much on cherry picking certain stats and ignoring others.

It also taking into account "chances" where the attacker does not even take a shot on goal or even touch the ball during the transistion of play deemed a big chance. So a ball whipped across the box that comes close to a few attackers is potentially a knock against them using the big chance figures.


Just looking at the name that stands out the most in an unrealistic manner...Son.


Am going to use Premier league figures only to avoid things like stat padding from Europa league or international games against fodder.


He is being listed as having an 80% conversion rate, but a quick look at his stats for this season in the league show that 28 of the 38 shots he attempted so far have either been saved or missed the goal altogether.

So he has converted 10 shots from 38 into goals. So his actual conversion rate is 26.32% which over a sustained period of time would be regarded as an elite conversion rate. Anything over 20% over the course of an entire season is elite.


If you dig a bit further into his 38 shots. 18 of those missed the goal altogether so now he is down to hitting the target 20 times out of 38, so he hits the target just over 50%, and of those 20 that hit the target 10 were goals.

So basically he gets a shot on target 52.6% of the time and of those that are on target he gets a goal 50% of the time. All elite numbers.


Kane, to pick out a guy known for his finishing, used to finish each season with a conversion rate of between 19% and 26% for most of his time at Spurs.




So when we see Nunez being pillared for his 11% or 12% (he is nowhere near the 17% shown there plus that 11% quoted on here was prior to the last game so it is worse now), it is lowish (pretty much in the same ball park as Jota, Gakpo and Diaz) but when you look at how often his shots are saved by the keeper or hit woodwork rather than just blasted wide, he does read as a player that if tiny margins went his way would suddenly shoot up to being a close to 20% guy. That is not saying he will do so, just that his numbers read like he is a could that could very easily go that way.



But to then expand on the tiny margins point and to look at Darwin's shots at goal the way I did with those of Son.

In the league he now has 4 goals from 45 shots which now gives him a goals to shots conversion rate of 9% (rounded up from 8.89%). Pretty poor, however if we then look at that tiny margins thing I mention and we dig into actually hitting the target and missing the goal altogether.

From his 45 shots he has hit the target 18 times (not including any of the times he hit the woodwork) so when he takes a shot he currently hits the target 40% of the time so he is forcing the keepers to make saves.





If people wanted to add in how often he hits the woodwork into the on target figures (personally I don't) then he moves to hitting the target 23 times from 45 shots. A shots on target conversion rate of 51%.


So his numbers suggest what watching the game should tell people. He is doing a hell of a lot right. His postioning and ability to get into attacking positions are very close to elite.

But saves and especially hitting the woodwork are killing his goal conversion rates.


Just for giggles I looked at his conversion rate if the times he hit the woodwork went in.

He would be on 9 goals from 53 shots or 9 goals from 23 shots on target giving him conversions rates of 17% (rounded up) or 39%.


All whataboutery and woulda couldas, but he is those five strikes against the woodwork away from approaching elite conversion levels.

Not going to help us unless they bring in a woulda shoulda coulda league table, but do think, as said already, that Darwin's numbers suggest that he is a striker that just needs the inches from the Al Pacino speech to fall his way a little more and suddenly his numbers for getting shots off and getting into position will do the rest.

All that said, watch him now draw a blank against the red Mancs but get a hat trick of assists setting Salah up.