The 4th Place Race - Contender Watch

[lickedlollipop]

The problem is entirely with us. The others are inconsistent as **** and WILL open the door for us, but we're being too **** to make any use of it.

The only reason i feel so pessimistic of our chances, is because we dont look like stringing two wins together. It's there for us, if we do our business, we'll get 4th. But we dont look capable of winning an argument, never mind an away game.

If by some miracle, we could wipe the lack of confidence and negativity away, and just be the 'real' Liverpool, we'd get 4th place. Somehow rafa needs to get their minds on track and believing in themselves. It's not gone yet, but we all think it will be, only because of how **** we're playing.

we're our own enemy.

[SimonNo7]

As for Villa winning being 'good' for us -

Absolutely.

So Villa are now 2pts behind us with 2 games in hand. They are without doubt major contenders for 4th.

[Big Dave]

The problem is entirely with us. The others are inconsistent as **** and WILL open the door for us, but we're being too **** to make any use of it.

The only reason i feel so pessimistic of our chances, is because we dont look like stringing two wins together. It's there for us, if we do our business, we'll get 4th. But we dont look capable of winning an argument, never mind an away game.
If by some miracle, we could wipe the lack of confidence and negativity away, and just be the 'real' Liverpool, we'd get 4th place. Somehow rafa needs to get their minds on track and believing in themselves. It's not gone yet, but we all think it will be, only because of how **** we're playing.

The club should get you in as a consultant


Agree with what you say though, I really think if we could find a run of form now we'd make it. No doubt at all that all the others will drop points. Can we take advantage though?

[5europeancups]

looking at the equivalent run ins of the 5 contenders Aston Villa Liverpool Spurs and Man City I would say that if you judge difficulty by playing top 3 teams and view all other teams as the same then Man City and Spurs hae the most difficult run ins.

Liverpool still have to play both Man Utd and Chelsea and I would say that to get fourth they have to lose only one of those games and win the rest.

This should be enough. One team out of the four will put a good run in. and bearing in Mind Liverpool have been there before I would say the odds favoured us even if the points tally doesnt atm

[Craig_H]

The **** run we've been on might tip the odds back in someone else's favour.

[SK]

I've been looking at how many points the 4th places team had in previous seasons, and the fact we've only got 8 games left (24pts), i feel we'll need to win at least 6 or even 7 of our remaining games to have a chance.

04/05 season

3rd Man Utd. 77pts
4th Everton 61pts
5th Liverpool 58pts

05/06 season

3rd Liverpool 82pts
4th Arsenal 67 pts
5th Tottenham 65pts

06/07 season

3rd Liverpool 68pts
4th Arsenal 68pts
5th Tottenham 60pts

07/08 season

3rd Arsenal 83pts
4th Liverpool 76pts
5th Everton 65pts

08/09 season

3rd Chelsea 83pts
4th Arsenal 72pts
5th Everton 63pts

over the 5 seasons, the 4th places team averaged a total of 68,8 points, and the 5th placed team averaged 62,2 points.

given that our remaining fixtures are:

Man Utd. Away
Sunderland Home
Birmingham Away
Fulham Home
West Ham Home
Burnley Away
Chelsea Home
Hull Away

we'll need to beat one of Man Utd. or Chelsea plus win all the rest of the games. It's up to us imo, but we'll have a very though job in reaching 4th. No more ****ing around, we need to go at team and attack them from the start.

[magicalbarnes]

Just took this article from football365.com:

We look at the four candidates, weigh up the pros and cons and then stick our noses out. We're not saying it's what we want, but can you see Spurs coming out on top with that run-in? No, us neither...

TOTTENHAM - 4th, 52 points

Why They Will Finish Fourth: There's goals in them there hills. In Roman Pavlyuchenko and Jermain Defoe, Tottenham have the Premier League's in-form strike duo, while the likes of Niko Kranjcar, Luka Modric and Peter Crouch aren't too shabby in front of goal either. The most entertaining of the fourth-place contenders, you would fancy them to sweep aside Bolton and Burnley in their final two games if they're still in the mix come May 1.

There's a verve about this Tottenham side against inferior opposition (barring Wolves) and so there should be - it's a team of internationals that's been put together at considerable cost. It's a better side than the one that went so close four years ago (Paul Stalteri and Mido were key players in that team), and only Jermain Defoe and Michael Dawson carry the scars of that defeat among the current regulars.

Why They Won't Finish Fourth: Have you seen their run-in? Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United in quick succession, with the knowledge that all three sides have given Spurs something of a dicking already this season. Tottenham's recent record against Big Four clubs is rotten and the tightness of this race for fourth place means that needs to improve sharpish. They can give the likes of Wigan a footballing lesson, but can a defensive pairing of Dawson and Sebastien Bassong really cope with Wayne Rooney or Didier Drogba?

'Arry Redknapp has got them this far but you can't help but think he's out of his depth in this particular race. He's never been the kind of manager to engineer big wins against big teams (that fortunate FA Cup triumph with Portsmouth over Manchester United aside) and he needs to do that against the best three teams in the Premier League. Will he have faith in his team's attacking instincts or revert to a more defensive formation and start lumping the ball towards Peter Crouch again? It's his default tactic in adversity, but will that be enough?

The Run-In: Stoke (A), Portsmouth (H), Sunderland (A), Arsenal (H), Chelsea (H), Manchester United (A), Bolton (H), Burnley (A). TBA: Manchester City (A).

Odds: 13/5.
Verdict: Missing Out


LIVERPOOL - 5th, 51 points

Why They Will Finish Fourth: It's the 'been there, done that' argument - simply speaking, these are Champions League players. They might not have been at their best this season, but they are lacking neither experience or nous. They will not fail at the final hurdle because of nerves, and you get the feeling that the likes of Steven Gerrard, Fernando Torres and Javier Mascherano will find that final gear on the home straight. It's what they do.

They also boast a phenomenal recent home record, with seven straight wins at Anfield in the Premier League. Home games against Sunderland, Fulham and West Ham could reap nine points, while trips to Burnley and Hull will hardly strike fear into Liverpool hearts - especially as both teams could be goners when those fixtures come around. There's the small matter of clashes with Manchester United and Chelsea, but they will be buoyed by their recent record against United and draws in both games will probably be enough as teams continue to falter around them.

Injuries have cleared up at the right time for Liverpool, whose only fear could be Javier Mascherano doing something stupid against United again and getting himself suspended.

Why They Won't Finish Fourth: Defeat at Wigan would suggest that there no gimmes for Liverpool, so games against Burnley and Hull can hardly be considered bankers. They've played more games than the teams around them so they have to be better than everyone else from here on in. Can a team that's already lost nine games this season be relied upon not to lose any more?

The Run-In: Manchester United (A), Sunderland (H), Birmingham (A), Fulham (H), West Ham (H), Burnley (A), Chelsea (H), Hull (A).

Odds: 5/2.
Verdict: Making It


MANCHESTER CITY - 6th, 50 points

Why They Will Finish Fourth: They're the only team in this list with no other distractions. With no FA or Europa Cup campaign, City are focused entirely on finishing fourth. They have ten games in their season - two of them in hand over Liverpool - and if City can take 18 points from those ten games, that will most likely be enough to take them into the Champions League. Looking at the list of fixtures, that's just about possible, though it will mean taking at least one three-point haul from home games against Everton, Tottenham and Villa that have 'draw' written all over them.

Nine goals conceded in 11 games since Roberto Mancini's arrival is testament to a vastly improved defence, protected by an Italian-style defensive midfield. There are enough goals in Carlos Tevez, Emmanuel Adebayor and Craig Bellamy - all of whom know what it's like to play in the Champions League and will be desperate to return - to believe that if Joleon Lescott and co can keep them out at one end, goals will be delivered at the other.

Despite suggestions elsewhere in the media, Roberto Mancini is doing better than Mark Hughes, and he has more league titles than any other manager in this list. You don't win three straight Serie A titles by losing your nerve at the business end of the season.

Why They Won't Finish Fourth: Three draws in four games suggests a side difficult to beat, but that might not be enough for City. There are too many games in that fixture list that look like one-pointers, with recent draws against Stoke and Sunderland away boding badly for trips to Fulham, Burnley, Birmingham and West Ham. If they need something like 18 points from ten games, that doesn't leave an awful lot of room for 1-1 draws - regardless of whether they're achieved with morale-boosting late equalisers.

In Mancini they have a tinkerer of a manager, but is that ideal with such a small number of games to make an impact? Can players in the English game cope with three or four tactical changes in a game? Do the crowd have the patience to sit through 60 poor minutes before the Italian stumbles upon the right formation?

The Run-In: Fulham (A), Everton (H), Wigan (H), Burnley (A), Birmingham (A), Manchester United (H), Arsenal (A), Aston Villa (H), West Ham (A). TBA: Tottenham (H).

Odds: 7/4.
Verdict: Missing Out


ASTON VILLA - 7th, 49 points

Why They Will Finish Fourth: In theory the fixture list looks very favourable indeed - six of their last ten games are against lower-half opposition, with a visit to Chelsea their only Big Four clash. They are - on paper at least - the in-form side amongst the contenders with an eight-game unbeaten run under their belts. They have a very settled side and the meanest defence in the Premier League. How could they fail?

Why They Won't Finish Fourth: They have scored in only four of their last ten Premier League games and have treated their fans to four 0-0 draws in that eight-game unbeaten spell. Now, 0-0 draws will stop you slipping down the league, but they're unlikely to earn you fourth place when other teams around you are capable of winning games, and winning them well.

The flip side to having a settled side is that fatigue sets in - that Tuesday's win over Wigan was their first March victory in Martin O'Neill's spell in charge is not a statistical anomaly, it comes from using a core of 13/14 players in 1970s style. Gaby Agbonlahor, James Milner and Ashley Young have all looked tired in recent weeks after playing 37-39 games already this season.

At this stage last season Villa were level on points with fourth-placed Arsenal and ended the season adrift in sixth. Their form is now worse and their squad is no stronger. It suggests failure.

The Run-In: Wolves (H), Sunderland (H), Chelsea (A), Bolton (A), Portsmouth (A), Birmingham (H), Manchester City (A), Blackburn (H). TBA: Hull (A), Everton (H).

Odds: 3/1.
Verdict: Missing Out

[magicalbarnes]

I've been looking at how many points the 4th places team had in previous seasons, and the fact we've only got 8 games left (24pts), i feel we'll need to win at least 6 or even 7 of our remaining games to have a chance.

04/05 season

3rd Man Utd. 77pts
4th Everton 61pts
5th Liverpool 58pts

05/06 season

3rd Liverpool 82pts
4th Arsenal 67 pts
5th Tottenham 65pts

06/07 season

3rd Liverpool 68pts
4th Arsenal 68pts
5th Tottenham 60pts

07/08 season

3rd Arsenal 83pts
4th Liverpool 76pts
5th Everton 65pts

08/09 season

3rd Chelsea 83pts
4th Arsenal 72pts
5th Everton 63pts

over the 5 seasons, the 4th places team averaged a total of 68,8 points, and the 5th placed team averaged 62,2 points.

.

To be honest i think its irrellevant what the 4th place team has finished with over the last 5 years as every season is unique. Last season for example it required 90 points to win it, but this year 82 will probably win it.

Same rules apply for 4th spot.

[red g]

why do spurs miss out with 1 more point than us?

[magicalbarnes]

why do spurs miss out with 1 more point than us?

Them points are our current points, not out predicted points after 38 games.

[SK]

To be honest i think its irrellevant what the 4th place team has finished with over the last 5 years as every season is unique. Last season for example it required 90 points to win it, but this year 82 will probably win it.

Same rules apply for 4th spot.

yeah i know, it's just that i was under the impression there was a magic line (like the 40pts for staying up) around 65pts where any team who would reach it, would more or less be guaranteed CL football.

i had no idea the 4th spot points tally varies 15 points from best to worst in the last 5 seasons

[Craig_H]

why do spurs miss out with 1 more point than us?

[magicalbarnes]

I reckon we are picking up momentum at just the right time.

If we can keep Torres fit 4th is ours. We are a whole different animal with him in the team, he's more important than Gerrard now.

[Craig_H]

Bad news, the City v Spurs game has been rescheduled for May 5th

[Craig_H]

Man City's last 5 games from 17th April:

Man Utd (h) 17th April
Arsenal (a) 24th April
Villa (h) 1st May
Spurs (h) 5th May
West Ham (a) 9th May

5 games in 22 days.

It's crucial that we stay in amongst it for the next 2-3 weeks, and then we can hopefully take advantage.