how close do we need to be.....

[Whelan5]

As i mentioned on another thread yesterday the reality unfortunately is that the league is not realistic this year. If the teams were all starting today on 0 points Utd and Arsenal would be favourites and we'd be battling it out with Chlsea for third, now throw in the fact that we've given Utd and Arsenal a 6-7 point head start and i can't see us making up that point difference.

Somebody mentioned earlier in the thread that even if we were 5-6 points behind when we went to Utd they would get nervous, really? That would suit them perfectly as they could play for a draw like they did on Sunday knowing it is extremly unlikely we would score against their defence and they could hit us on the counter. Our only hope of winnig at OT is if it doesn't matter to them or they have to win to catch Arsenal and they therefore attack us and allow us to use Torres & Babel's pace to counter, other than that i'm afraid it's a draw or home win.

The only good news from the week-end is that with Chelsea's injuries to their 2 centre halves and main striker we could get ahead of them and into third.

[desertscouser]

By Jan 2nd we have to be at the most 6 points behind the Mancs who have to be the favourites for the title. Then we will probably have to beat them at Old Trafford if we're to win the league.

Citeh away on boxing day could well be the decider. If we drop points there then it would be a huge ask to win the league imo.

[Guest]

We don't have any margins for error now, while the others have. It's simply it. We need a 10 games winning run to at least make a good shout of it.

[Kopite_Colin]

The games this weekend are crucial. Scum play Everton (who are on a decent roll at present), and Arsenal play Tottenham (anything can happen in a Derby). So as long as we beat Pompey at home, we could even be 2-3 points closer come 5pm on Saturday. After that we have Derby, Wigan & Boro (games in which we should pick up maximum points) with City in the middle.

After Spurs, Arsenal have got Pompey away (before they lose their players to the ANC), before Everton away and then another derby against West Ham. The only certain 3 points in that lot for them may be against West Ham.

Afetr Everton, Scum have got Sunderland away, West ham away, then Brum at home and they will probably win at least 3 of those. So the max they will drop will be 3 points, even if Everton beat them.

Chelsea have got Blackburn & Fulham away, Barcodes & Villa at home. They are likely to beat Fulham & Barcodes but may draw with Villa & BBurn.


However, assuming:

1) we win all 4 Christmas & New Year games we would have 42 points (+ 1 G in H)
2) Arsenal draw with Spurs & Everton & win the rest - they would have 48 points
3) Scum lose to Everton & win the rest - they would have 48 points
4) Chelsea win 2 and draw 2 they would have 42 points

Assuming we win our game in hand in January, we could still be within 3 pts or so of the top.

So it's not over at all. But we do need Everton to continue their current form (and not do their ususal roll over act against the Scum) and we need Spurs to fight like hell and kick lumps out of Arsenal.

[Mattshark]

Arsenal gave us a footballing lesson at Anfield and the Mancs are so solid in defence they looked well water tight, i don't know what extra could be done at their places to get the necessary wins to gain points on them.

Passing nicely while creating less chances? Thats not a football lesson, its just nice passing, we created more and better chances.

[Kopite_Colin]

Passing nicely while creating less chances? Thats not a football lesson, its just nice passing, we created more and better chances.

Had Reina not fallen over at Fabregas's toe-poke we would have won too. So I'd hardly call that a lesson.

[desertscouser]

Had Reina not fallen over at Fabregas's toe-poke we would have won too. So I'd hardly call that a lesson.

I thought we were thoroughly outclassed by Arsenal but that's history now.

[tomasjj]

Passing nicely while creating less chances? Thats not a football lesson, its just nice passing, we created more and better chances.

I agree. It was only when Alonso had to go off injured that Arsenal started to dominate.

[Guest]

I agree. It was only when Alonso had to go off injured that Arsenal started to dominate.

It seems we had a plan to play on the counter attack.

[Imy]

Arsenal's brand of football will get them more wins then ours will.

They did outclass us, for long periods we couldn't even get the ball of them. Ultimately who was the happier Wenger or Rafa, a draw away from home at one of your rivals is a good result.

[Mattimetal]

The games this weekend are crucial. Scum play Everton (who are on a decent roll at present), and Arsenal play Tottenham (anything can happen in a Derby). So as long as we beat Pompey at home, we could even be 2-3 points closer come 5pm on Saturday. .

I think we're still in it BUT we must beat Pompey to be sure and they were our bogey team last year, they norm rock up at Anfield and park their bus in front of goal. Our game against Derbly is crucial as we need to get our Goals difference back up to try and get one over teams equal with us on points. So 5 goals wouldn't go a miss there.

I am hoping Everton can stifle Man U they've looked really good since Cahill came back from injury together with Yakubu and co, plus I'm still not overly impressed with Man U. I think other teams would have punished them (unlike us) for those mistakes they made on Sunday in the 1st half.

I also think Spurs are due a victory over the Arse and after beating Pompey away they should be confident.

To sum up I don't go along with what everyone is saying about us not being able to beat the top 3 away. Our away form has been the biggest improvement this season because we have the players that can counter with pace and score.

I think if we hang in there 6/7 pts behind the leaders till Jan we are still def in the mix. I still think this will be a very tight season with the top 2 or 3 alternating the lead.

[tomasjj]

Arsenal's brand of football will get them more wins then ours will.

They did outclass us, for long periods we couldn't even get the ball of them. Ultimately who was the happier Wenger or Rafa, a draw away from home at one of your rivals is a good result.

A bit like the Mancs in the 2nd half against us then...

[bobbyfallon]

3-5 points

[Mr Nike Top]

I think we needed to be ahead at the turn of the year. We are a worse team than either the Scum or Arsenal and have to play them two and Chelsea away from home. Having the other three Champs Lge teams at home before Xmas and only taking 2 points from nine has holed us below the waterline.

On the evidence of this season so far there is no reason whatever to believe we can pick up more than 3 points from the three away games against them and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that we could drop further cheap points against inferior sides after Xmas. In any event, even if we were Brazil's 1970 team, the Scum and Arsenal will not both drop nine and ten points respectively between now and the end of the year.

As people keep pointing out, this has been our best start to a league campaign in several years and we are still out of the title race in December. Although I don't believe either is a better manager, both Evans and Houllier's teams had come a lot closer to the title (still miles away) than Benitez has managed so far. The question for me is, when does this lack of progress in the league become unacceptable?

[CharlieMansonsSquint]

Does it matter?

I think we'll prioritize the Cups again, because we can win those.

I'll happily accept a healthy reduction in the deficit of points we finished behind the scum last year.

Anymore than 10 points behind the champions and Rafa should be under massive pressure to go a lot closer next year, not that he shouldn't be this year mind.