...that there is absolutely no chance that we are going to be in the Champions League next year. If we were relying on one team to slip up, then we might still have an outside chance, but once all of the games in hand are played, we will at best be in sixth and a point behind Man City and Spurs, and at worst in seventh, seven behind City, six behind Villa and four behind Spurs, and only two ahead of Birmingham and four ahead of Everton.
Even if the teams above us do drop points, it relies on us picking up maximum points on the run-in, and to be blunt last night showed us that that is never going to happen.
My best guess? We finish seventh, and aren’t in Europe at all next year unless Spurs get to the final of the FA Cup, in which case the FA Cup place goes to sixth and the League Cup place to seventh.
If that happens, I would fully expect Benitez to resign, but as has been debated at length on this site, we would struggle to replace him. The issue is then whether this team is good enough to get back in the top four and has just lost its way, or that we massively overachieved last season, and have now found our level.
My feeling is a bit of a combination of the two. Look at Everton, who man for man are far inferior to our team. Only Arteta and perhaps Jagielka would stand a chance of getting in our first choice eleven. And yet with a great manager (you may hate him but it’s true), who gets far more out of the team than the sum of its parts, they regularly overachieve.
Benitez has been a great manager, but seems to have hit a glass ceiling. His decision-making in recent months has become increasingly erratic, and many of his high-profile signings have been less than successful. Aquilani and Johnson have failed to make an impact (the latter through no fault of Benitez’s, but the former I very much lay at his door, as he signed an injured player for £20m, and the gamble backfired) and our failure to sign a proper back-up striker has been a disaster. Babel should either be played or sold, and Alonso might never have left if the Barry saga hadn’t been played out so publicly and in such an unprofessional manner.
So how do we start to get the team to achieve again? To me the answer now seems very simple, but it’s one that I wouldn’t have contemplated until very recently: Benitez has to go. And to all those who say that there isn’t anyone else and we should give him time - he has had time, and a lack of obvious alternatives is not sufficient justification to keep a man who clearly can’t take the team to the next level. I hope that he does the decent thing and falls on his sword at the end of the season, and then, regardless of any investment or ownership changes, we start with a clean slate.
By the way, if we do make Champions League and Benitez stays, feel free to remind me of this and I will willingly eat humble pie, as I'd love to be wrong about this. I just don't think that I am going to be wrong, unfortunately.
Even if the teams above us do drop points, it relies on us picking up maximum points on the run-in, and to be blunt last night showed us that that is never going to happen.
My best guess? We finish seventh, and aren’t in Europe at all next year unless Spurs get to the final of the FA Cup, in which case the FA Cup place goes to sixth and the League Cup place to seventh.
If that happens, I would fully expect Benitez to resign, but as has been debated at length on this site, we would struggle to replace him. The issue is then whether this team is good enough to get back in the top four and has just lost its way, or that we massively overachieved last season, and have now found our level.
My feeling is a bit of a combination of the two. Look at Everton, who man for man are far inferior to our team. Only Arteta and perhaps Jagielka would stand a chance of getting in our first choice eleven. And yet with a great manager (you may hate him but it’s true), who gets far more out of the team than the sum of its parts, they regularly overachieve.
Benitez has been a great manager, but seems to have hit a glass ceiling. His decision-making in recent months has become increasingly erratic, and many of his high-profile signings have been less than successful. Aquilani and Johnson have failed to make an impact (the latter through no fault of Benitez’s, but the former I very much lay at his door, as he signed an injured player for £20m, and the gamble backfired) and our failure to sign a proper back-up striker has been a disaster. Babel should either be played or sold, and Alonso might never have left if the Barry saga hadn’t been played out so publicly and in such an unprofessional manner.
So how do we start to get the team to achieve again? To me the answer now seems very simple, but it’s one that I wouldn’t have contemplated until very recently: Benitez has to go. And to all those who say that there isn’t anyone else and we should give him time - he has had time, and a lack of obvious alternatives is not sufficient justification to keep a man who clearly can’t take the team to the next level. I hope that he does the decent thing and falls on his sword at the end of the season, and then, regardless of any investment or ownership changes, we start with a clean slate.
By the way, if we do make Champions League and Benitez stays, feel free to remind me of this and I will willingly eat humble pie, as I'd love to be wrong about this. I just don't think that I am going to be wrong, unfortunately.
Comment