From a good stats guy on TTT:
Just to put some reality around the numbers of points gained and required.
With 30 games to go there are 90 points available.
In order to get into a Champions League spot, the normal target is 67 points, so we would need 61 more points, slightly more than 2 a game. This is not far short of title winning form.
Assuming the two domestic cups are won by teams at the top of the Premier League, so freeing up an extra 2 places in the league – in order to get a Europa League spot, the target would be about 62 points, so we would need 56 more points, slight less than 2 a game. This is approximately the same as form to qualify for the Champions League over a full season.
Let’s look at the worst case scenario – relegation. In order to be guaranteed avoiding relegation, we would need approximately 42 points, or 36 more points from 30 games. Surely this is achievable? Well, combining Roy’s and our recent record, we can expect to win no more than about 2 and draw 5 of our remaining 15 away games, giving us 11 points. We would therefore need 25 points from our remaining 15 home games.
Discounting Chelsea, Man Utd and Man City at home, which are unlikely to return much in the way of points, and draws at best against Everton, Spurs and Villa, that still leaves us needing 22 points from 9 home games. Unless we pick up unexpected points from the above 6 home games, or improve dramatically on our away form, we have about 5 points to play with in those 9 home games, before we are staring relegation squarely in the face.
In short, and without being overdramatic about this, if we fail to Blackburn at Anfield, we could be at the point of no return.
Very sober reading, and the reason I do the season-to-go analysis.
Just to put some reality around the numbers of points gained and required.
With 30 games to go there are 90 points available.
In order to get into a Champions League spot, the normal target is 67 points, so we would need 61 more points, slightly more than 2 a game. This is not far short of title winning form.
Assuming the two domestic cups are won by teams at the top of the Premier League, so freeing up an extra 2 places in the league – in order to get a Europa League spot, the target would be about 62 points, so we would need 56 more points, slight less than 2 a game. This is approximately the same as form to qualify for the Champions League over a full season.
Let’s look at the worst case scenario – relegation. In order to be guaranteed avoiding relegation, we would need approximately 42 points, or 36 more points from 30 games. Surely this is achievable? Well, combining Roy’s and our recent record, we can expect to win no more than about 2 and draw 5 of our remaining 15 away games, giving us 11 points. We would therefore need 25 points from our remaining 15 home games.
Discounting Chelsea, Man Utd and Man City at home, which are unlikely to return much in the way of points, and draws at best against Everton, Spurs and Villa, that still leaves us needing 22 points from 9 home games. Unless we pick up unexpected points from the above 6 home games, or improve dramatically on our away form, we have about 5 points to play with in those 9 home games, before we are staring relegation squarely in the face.
In short, and without being overdramatic about this, if we fail to Blackburn at Anfield, we could be at the point of no return.
Very sober reading, and the reason I do the season-to-go analysis.
and surely it has to be the other way around as well - there is no point in judging/blaming Roy for not being Rafa or doing things differently - and not least with counterfactual arguments that are coming up all the time.
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