Blackburn Post-Match

[Gibbo]

Wow, people slagging off Suarez while massively defending Carroll, I want Carroll to succeed as much as the next man but that just doesn't seem right to me.

[Mostar]

What else do you think is wrong? We are creating plenty of chances, I'd be more worried if we weren't creating anything.

In a similar way I have gone past thinking that our poor finishing is down to bad luck, we either have players whose finishing ability needs to be improved, or we have psychological problems with it.

We are but that means very little when our conversion rate is below any standard.

6 draws out of 9 games we played at home is poor to say at least and we cannot sugarcoat that fact no matter what.

We would've been better off if out of those 6 draws we had dropped 3 and won 3..

[Bender]

expect nothing more against Newcastle on friday other than more dissapointment

[Fredo]

expect nothing more against Newcastle on friday other than more dissapointment

Things are not as doom and gloom. We've been drawing not losing.

[The_weatherman]

Things are not as doom and gloom. We've been drawing not losing.

I'm pretty nervous to be fair, if team come at us now without Lucas we can get in trouble, Newcastle and City will do just that.

[BobTheCharmer]

expect nothing more against Newcastle on friday other than more dissapointment

maybe maybe not. newcastle are capable of beating us. barring utd and city, all 18 teams are able to beat each other right now. the world won't stop if it happens. mind you, that coins lands on the other side and we beat newcastle, by a goal or 3 and things start to look a lot brighter.

[peekay]

Season 1rst place 2nd place Average
2011-2012 112 99 106
2010-2011 78 69 74
2009-2010 103 86 95
2008-2009 68 77 73
2007-2008 80 65 73






I have looked at the goal scored for the last five seasons for the teams which came first and second and averaged them. For this season I have just extrapolated to 38 games. If we average the goal scored for the last five seasons (including this season) we will need approximately 84 goals. If we neglect this season we will need approximately 78 goals.


Let us look at the next two years from the most optimistic perspective:

Andy Carroll and Luis suarez have the potential to score 15-20 goals per season.

I think Gerrard can contribute 10 goals per season

I will be pleasantly surprised if Adam, Downing, Henderson, lucas combined can deliver 10-15 goals per season from open play as I am assuming Stevie will be taking our penalties. As attacking players that output is poor. Neither of them are Xavi like creators also in which case that output can be excused. Lucas is excused due to his role.

Then we have Bellamy, Maxi, and Kuyt and others - I am assuming Maxi and Kuyt wont be here after this season. Bellamy will be a useful player but I dont expect more than 10 more from him and others.


As of now in the most optimistic scenario and looking at the potential, I would say we barely meet the average required in terms of goals scored. Even if we look at potential we just do not have enough goalscorers.

[dww]

Not convinced of that

There are two things we lack and one could be an excuse for the other

Firstly our decision making in the final third is poor, it doesnt matter which player you choose generally their decision making is sub-par

By decision making I mean you get in a position of threat and there are times when you should pass, there are times when you should shoot etc... generally we choose the wrong option. Even older players like Kuyt & Bellamy are making these wrong decisions

Then we have decision making in front of goal - this is composure - ie times when you should just **** it and times when you should pass it into the net. Currently we are consistantly making the wrong choice - from Suarez's decision the other week at Villa when he turned Dunne inside out only to **** the ball hard as he can against the bar - to Carrolls 1st half chance yesterday where he took a touch when he should have gone first time. Some of this could be to do with confidence but I'm not sure

That stat of Suarez only having 1 league assist is interesting (I thought he had far more than that)

I'd agree that decision making is a problem but I think in a lot of ways it starts deeper. The only players I think can be happy with that aspect of their game in recent games are the defenders.

In some ways I think we play 'too much football' when we aren't getting the decisions right (in my view this is as much to do with runs off the ball as passing on it). The way we are trying to play demands great precision and at the minute we are failing to provide that.

[Exiled_red]

Not convinced of that

There are two things we lack and one could be an excuse for the other

Firstly our decision making in the final third is poor, it doesnt matter which player you choose generally their decision making is sub-par

By decision making I mean you get in a position of threat and there are times when you should pass, there are times when you should shoot etc... generally we choose the wrong option. Even older players like Kuyt & Bellamy are making these wrong decisions

Then we have decision making in front of goal - this is composure - ie times when you should just **** it and times when you should pass it into the net. Currently we are consistantly making the wrong choice - from Suarez's decision the other week at Villa when he turned Dunne inside out only to **** the ball hard as he can against the bar - to Carrolls 1st half chance yesterday where he took a touch when he should have gone first time. Some of this could be to do with confidence but I'm not sure

That stat of Suarez only having 1 league assist is interesting (I thought he had far more than that)

That's fair enough, I agree with that, my point about having someone to calm people down comes from the fact that we seem to start off well and play well for the first 30 mins or so, then if we haven't got a goal our heads start to drop and we go through a bad patch, I think we need someone to calm people down as alot of our players get frustrated when things don't go their way, Suarez, Gerrard, Bellamy, Adam, Carragher. I think we need a calm head out there, someone who can tell people not to get so wound up or frustrated, because I think that this affects us later in games.

[Exiled_red]

I think it is a variety of things, including:
No one follows up on shots, so we get fewer 'cheap goals'
For whatever reason Suarez is **** at finishing for us.
No one makes the sort of runs for us into or around the six yard area that resulted in goals for Ba and Dempsey for Fulham (on a good day I'd excuse Maxi from this criticism) - again they were comparatively easy to finish.
Carroll mostly looks terrified - composure is often a key part of finishing and that attitude can't help.
We cross from too wide a lot of the time. It has helped Bale a lot this season that he has started cutting in more to cross.
We have no natural finisher/poacher

The majority of those come down to finishing ability, yes we do often make the wrong decisions in the final third, but I think we need intense training in finishing and keeping composure in the box to try and ensure we make th right decisions and get the goals.

[Exiled_red]

We are but that means very little when our conversion rate is below any standard.

6 draws out of 9 games we played at home is poor to say at least and we cannot sugarcoat that fact no matter what.

We would've been better off if out of those 6 draws we had dropped 3 and won 3..

What I'm saying is if we can improve our finishing or chance conversion we will do alot better because we are creating chances, the issue is solely being able to turn chances into goals.

[Exiled_red]

Things are not as doom and gloom. We've been drawing not losing.

I've mentioned this before but the problem isn't how many games you lose, it's how many you fail to win, as there is a huge difference between the 3 points for a win and the 1 point for a draw.

In the season we came 2nd we only lost two games but the 11 draws we had cost us the title.

[dww]

That's fair enough, I agree with that, my point about having someone to calm people down comes from the fact that we seem to start off well and play well for the first 30 mins or so, then if we haven't got a goal our heads start to drop and we go through a bad patch, I think we need someone to calm people down as alot of our players get frustrated when things don't go their way, Suarez, Gerrard, Bellamy, Adam, Carragher. I think we need a calm head out there, someone who can tell people not to get so wound up or frustrated, because I think that this affects us later in games.

I think there is something in that. It's been a problem for a while though, certainly since Hyypia and Alonso left.

[Exiled_red]

I think there is something in that. It's been a problem for a while though, certainly since Hyypia and Alonso left.

Hyypia and Alonso were the ones I thought of specifically.

I think it's a problem with Suarez in particular I think he misses a chance, gets fouled, is unlucky with an effort and the frustration from each of these incidents builds and builds in him, probably by 70mins or so he's become so frustrated it affects his decision making and his composure. I think it's probably the case with some others as well but I notice it more with him. If someone could just have a word I think it would help hugely.

[dww]

I think Suarez is an interesting example which illustrates that there are more than one way to deal with these problems. I think a lot of what impacts on Suarez could be solved by having more goals threats in the team.

In a way I think calm leadership types are a solution which might be quite cheap. Perhaps selling some experienced players (Kuyt looks most likely) might allow us to bring someone in without leaving us with too old a squad.