Has the sabremetrics thing worked?

[Mattshark]

what statistical analysis are you looking at ?

Well I would expect looking at more than just "chance created" for example, which is the major example cited. Looking at Downing and Henderson for example, both had very high chance creation rates. However, there is no indication of the chance quality, but when you look into to the conversion rates of these players, you find it is very low (both around 5-7% conversion). Even if you are just looking at the most basic rate, between them Kuyt and Maxi created and scored 10 more goals than Henderson and Downing did last season. There is far more to look at than just this, but it gives some basic information on why chance creation alone which is what is commonly cited on here is overly basic as a manner of looking at this compared to so many other factors that don't support the idea of these players being chose in regards to stats.

[Mattshark]

Yes, but my understanding is that Saber-metrics is used to identify players, then a list is presented to the Manager and he chooses a couple of names for Comolli to have a look at. Then the manager makes a decision from there.

Dont think anyone is suggesting that players are signed purely on this stats system alone. Id guess its used as a system for finding the types of players you want.

But unless you are using the most basic system in the world, our targets don't fit in with any form of sabremetrics.

[Mattshark]

What nonsense is this you're spouting now shark boy?

They clearly do. All had barely missed a game in the previous few seasons (Downing, Suarez etc). Downing had a terrific assist record over the previous couple of seasons. Statistically speaking they were all excellent signings on paper. It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

No, they don't sorry, Suarez yes, he scored over 50 goals. But the others don't at all. Downings record is average with a very low conversion rate for example.

[Alex]

But unless you are using the most basic system in the world, our targets don't fit in with any form of sabremetrics.

Unless we are Saber-metrics experts how do we know? Truth is none of us really know how the club selects targets.

[Resu]

Exactly, we've used Sabermetrics to target players and draw up a shortlist of players who meet the necessary criteria. Kenny has then picked which players out of that list he wants most. We've signed players largely on this basis and it's failed on the whole. Simple as that really.

There are lots of different ways it could have been done. Kenny could just have drawn up a list of players he liked, watched videos of them and bought them. If he then need statistics to convince the owners he would just pick the right statistics to show them. All good players will have some good statistics.

I`m sure the statistics if the palyers have been looked at, to sort of back-up the overall impression, but it doesn`t make it Sabremetrics.

[Mattshark]

Unless we are Saber-metrics experts how do we know? Truth is none of us really know how the club selects targets.

I know how the maths work, it is not overly complicated. It imo just doesn't fit with our signings in the slightest and it certainly isn't just looking at raw data.

http://www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/papers/saber.html if you want a basic introduction.

[Danish_Pastry]

Jon Dahl Tomassen scored a lot of goals for Feyenoord before KK did take him to Newcastle, and as things changed, he couldn't adapt. He could also have been taken due to statistics. KK has done it before - and that is why the magpies kept yealling it sunday.

http://www.newcastleunited-mad.co.uk/news/tmnw/what_went_wrong_for_jon_dahl_at_newcastle_529333/index.shtml

[~LFCHistory~]

There are lots of different ways it could have been done. Kenny could just have drawn up a list of players he liked, watched videos of them and bought them. If he then need statistics to convince the owners he would just pick the right statistics to show them. All good players will have some good statistics.

I`m sure the statistics if the palyers have been looked at, to sort of back-up the overall impression, but it doesn`t make it Sabremetrics.

I read this is how the process works.

1. Kenny tells Commolli what he thinks the team is lacking ie. width, finishing etc.

2. Commolli compiles a list of players and then shows it to Kenny.

3. Kenny looks at the list and chooses which player/s from the list he wants.

[Vermilion]

I read this is how the process works.

1. Kenny tells Commolli what he thinks the team is lacking ie. width, finishing etc.

2. Commolli compiles a list of players and then shows it to Kenny.

3. Kenny looks at the list and chooses which player/s from the list he wants.

What if Comolli comes up with a list of players that Kenny doesn't want ?

New list, or stuck with the picks on the list ?

[~LFCHistory~]

What if Comolli comes up with a list of players that Kenny doesn't want ?

New list, or stuck with the picks on the list ?

I bet it's a ****ing big list.

[Resu]

I read this is how the process works.

1. Kenny tells Commolli what he thinks the team is lacking ie. width, finishing etc.

2. Commolli compiles a list of players and then shows it to Kenny.

3. Kenny looks at the list and chooses which player/s from the list he wants.

I would think it`s something along these lines.
Kenny probably has input on certain players he wants on Commollis list, but how do they actually pick the players to go for?
Do Commolli make some sort of ranking of the players and Kenny sits down to watch the top names, or do Commolli do all the scouting/stats etc. and Kenny just says yes or no? It`s probably a mix, I doubt Kenny would buy a player without having watched him.

And where do Sabremetrics come in to the equation? Is that Commollis department?


So many questions, so few good buys

[Mattshark]

I think more than anything, Rafa was the closest to using sabermetrics out of anyone.

[cream]

Yes, it's been a resounding success.

[Fosterbloke]

I read this is how the process works.

1. Kenny tells Commolli what he thinks the team is lacking ie. width, finishing etc.

2. Commolli compiles a list of players and then shows it to Kenny.

3. Kenny looks at the list and chooses which player/s from the list he wants.

Did he lose the list over Christmas?

[baitman]

i am not very "up" on the world of stats and all the associated terminology, so could someone help me out here...
if the stats show that downing [for example] has made x number of crosses then that shows that downing is making a worthwhile contribution.
if there is not striker getting on the end of them then its an issue with the strikers or invisible runners from midfield.

do the stats take in to account the quality of the crosses. are they being delivered long enough to reach the strikers.
maybe sometimes a cross needs to be more intelligent, and cut back to the players who are running in [hopefully] from midfield, so they cannot be intercepted by the defenders. maybe some of our players are a little to basic in their understanding of the game... too much hit and hope, and not enough understanding of how they should be developing the play, and runners creating space, or running on to balls.
i see AC standing in the box waiting for a ball to be put on his head, rather than arriving late, and rushing the goal area trying to get on to the end of these crosses. standing still allows the defender to mark you too easily
there seems to be an issue with many of our players not being able to get a cross past the first defender.