Has the sabremetrics thing worked?

[Lecter]

I think numerous quotes have made clear we're utilising sabremetrics to some significant degree.

From the outside it is nigh on impossible to tell exactly what metrics were valued to what extent - the idea we used chances created alone suggests a very stripped down simplistic methodology. I'd like to think we'd be smarter than that, though I can't see how else we've ended up with the signings we have.

I don't know baseball particularly well, but I should imagine football is endlessly more complex in terms of statistical analysis. Sound idea, but perhaps more difficult to replicate in football than first envisaged?

Agree with all of that

[Red11]

Agree with all of that

I think the one of the primary reasons that sabermetrics struggles in football is because the mathematics struggles du to the nature of the variables used. In baseball it is much easier to define the variables eg a foul ball is easily and strictly defined, as is a home run, a strike etc.

In football creating a statistical database that comprisess strict definitions of "goal scoring chance" etc is open to too much subjectivity. My definition of a goal scoring chance (Carroll spooning a shot from 6 yards over the bar) differs to someone else's (Messi beating 6 players and shooting from 25 yards) changing the variable and therefore the answer your algorythm will provide.

Rafa was/is one of the best at collecting data & turning that into a basis for statistical analysis, however even his variables will be subjectively defined.

My main issue is who's defining the variables at LFC, Comolli? If so, why?

[el matador]

Sorry mate, but no you don't, it is pretty simple maths, it is no more complex (probably less so) than what you would do in a science degree for example.

And that is moneyball, not sabermetrics in the last 2 paragraphs.

a science degree with advanced maths is something which 99% of liverpool fans dont have.

isnt moneyball a represenration about the use of sabermetrics in sport rather than being a theory in itself. its about finding value using advanced statistical analysis where others wouldnt look.

I also have a feeling its about the dynamics of how variables fit together rather than just about how many assists x player has as an individual or how many chances x creates per game. I will have a closer look into it.

[el matador]

ok. sabermetrics can be the in depth statistical analysis of any given area of sport. for example we might look at suarez chance.conversion ratio and think that 7% is piss poor. but sabermetrics might develop an algorithm for determining things like:

what kind of pressure was he under when he missed
how many yards he had to run before he got to the ball for his shot
how many of those yards were run at full intensity sprints
does a player need to build up momentum to get his shot.off.or can he strike cleanly from little backlift
how many players did he beat before he had to get his shot off
how many chances fell onto his left foot / right foot
which type of cross does suarez convert more of low, waist height or head height

it can go on and on and on. literally, you could have a stat for anything but.its always.about recruiting the.right.players, at the right price for your team.

[red g]

ok. sabermetrics can be the in depth statistical analysis of any given area of sport. for example we might look at suarez chance.conversion ratio and think that 7% is piss poor. but sabermetrics might develop an algorithm for determining things like:

what kind of pressure was he under when he missed
how many yards he had to run before he got to the ball for his shot
how many of those yards were run at full intensity sprints
does a player need to build up momentum to get his shot.off.or can he strike cleanly from little backlift
how many players did he beat before he had to get his shot off
how many chances fell onto his left foot / right foot
which type of cross does suarez convert more of low, waist height or head height

it can go on and on and on. literally, you could have a stat for anything but.its always.about recruiting the.right.players, at the right price for your team.

Well if that is sabermetrics its clear that either a) Liverpool don't use it or
b) its a load of ****e.

[el matador]

Well if that is sabermetrics its clear that either a) Liverpool don't use it or
b) its a load of ****e.

[Tribute]

I read this is how the process works.

1. Kenny tells Commolli what he thinks the team is lacking ie. width, finishing etc.

2. Commolli compiles a list of players and then shows it to Kenny.

3. Kenny looks at the list and chooses which player/s from the list he wants.

I think this is true to life process, but missing one step...

4. Kenny and Commolli then show list to MattShark for an exhaustive explanation of how sabermetrics ACTUALLY works and for final approval

[Kenneth]

I think this is true to life process, but missing one step...

4. Kenny and Commolli then show list to MattShark for an exhaustive explanation of how sabermetrics ACTUALLY works and for final approval

[Mattshark]

I think this is true to life process, but missing one step...

4. Kenny and Commolli then show list to MattShark for an exhaustive explanation of how sabermetrics ACTUALLY works and for final approval

Damn right

[BootRoom]

The fact that Comolli has mentioned numerous times that stats drive his analysis of players suggests he is using sabermetrics to identify the players

Liverpool director of football Damien Comolli has admitted he is keen on thoroughly investigating player stats ahead of possible transfers and hinted at interest in Saint Etienne midfielder Blaise Matuidi based on his impressive statistics in Ligue 1 this season.

The 24-year-old midfielder now has two French caps to his name and strong tackling stats make him a hit with Comolli.

"In France, all the figures prove that the player who wins the most possession at the feet of his opponents is Blaise Matuidi," Comolli told the News of the World.

"That is an extraordinary strong point. When the team plays high, it means a goal chance."

Matuidi has made over 120 appearances for St Etienne and Comolli’s statistical analysis takes into account the durability of a player as the former Tottenham director believes injury prone players are too much of a drain on club resources.

He added: "We are going in the right direction of players who don't get injured. We are going to take more and more account of the health of a player in the future. It costs so much having players who don't play.”

Comolli also insists his calculations allowed him to handle the January transfer window pressure with more clarity and the statistical approach seems to have paid dividends for the Reds in their acquisition of Uruguayan Luis Suarez

The former Ajax man has contributed heavily to the Reds recent run of form and netted twice in his first nine appearances for the club.

"When you find yourself handling three of the biggest transfers in English football history in the last days of the market, precise figures allow you not to do that blind," added Comolli.

"You have to act quickly. For Luis, I asked scouts to make inquiries in Holland. I looked at his stats over the last three years - especially the number of matches played.

"With Luis, we took account of the number of decisive passes, his performances against the big teams, against the little ones, in Europe, the difference between his goals scored at home and away.”

The Reds have been linked with a glut of players ahead of the forthcoming summer where it is expected Kenny Dalglish will be given the opportunity to begin to rebuild at Anfield.

Sabermetrics don't apply to football. Plus I'd argue that statistics are used as an analysis tool to evaluate targets rather than to identify them.

What do you think 'traditional' scouting reports consist of? Do you think they wouldn't refer to stats such as how prolific a striker is, or how fast he is, or how many appearances he's made, or his injury record?

[BootRoom]

I think the one of the primary reasons that sabermetrics struggles in football is because the mathematics struggles du to the nature of the variables used. In baseball it is much easier to define the variables eg a foul ball is easily and strictly defined, as is a home run, a strike etc.

In football creating a statistical database that comprisess strict definitions of "goal scoring chance" etc is open to too much subjectivity. My definition of a goal scoring chance (Carroll spooning a shot from 6 yards over the bar) differs to someone else's (Messi beating 6 players and shooting from 25 yards) changing the variable and therefore the answer your algorythm will provide.

Rafa was/is one of the best at collecting data & turning that into a basis for statistical analysis, however even his variables will be subjectively defined.

My main issue is who's defining the variables at LFC, Comolli? If so, why?

Football is a lot more chaotic than baseball, and it's harder to isolate individuals and evaluate objectively their "true" contribution to the team.

[Lecter]

Football is a lot more chaotic than baseball, and it's harder to isolate individuals and evaluate objectively their "true" contribution to the team.

[Exiled_red]

Has the sabremetrics thing worked?

I think the system can work effectively if we look at the correct stats and consider the context. Just deciding we need a player who can create chances and looking down a list of players who created the most chances without considering anything else is the wrong way to do it, and sadly this is what I think we have done, and it hasn't worked.

[Charly]

I think the system can work effectively if we look at the correct stats and consider the context. Just deciding we need a player who can create chances and looking down a list of players who created the most chances without considering anything else is the wrong way to do it, and sadly this is what I think we have done, and it hasn't worked.

Agreed.

Statistics can help find the right player, but we all know football is not always quantfiable.

We would be stupid to ignore it, and stupid to use nothing else.

I dont even think we would be worrying about this had we a striker who consistantly scored. The lack of a "pressure valve" up front is affecting the whole team.

[BrooklynRed]

Here's how I judge players: I watch them play a bunch of games and when they are really good and disciplined in their position over the course of many games I say, "Oh, he's a good player." Call me crazy, but footballers require an eyeball test.