Has the sabremetrics thing worked?

[little dave hedgehog]

spoken like a man who watches things for a living.

[Mattshark]

Here's how I judge players: I watch them play a bunch of games and when they are really good and disciplined in their position over the course of many games I say, "Oh, he's a good player." Call me crazy, but footballers require an eyeball test.

The problem with eyeball tests is they have inherent unreliability too, there are many more factors that will affect perception too. The best way and they way I am sure scouts use is a mixture of video, live games and stats.

[baitman]

do these stats take into consideration the players ability to understand what its all about... with talk about some players being tactically inept, or not having the intelligence to understand the little drawings the manager sticks in front of them while they tighten their boots before they come running on, you have to wonder if some of these lads are just good runners, but with footy boots on

[RedReet]

Here's how I judge players: I watch them play a bunch of games and when they are really good and disciplined in their position over the course of many games I say, "Oh, he's a good player." Call me crazy, but footballers require an eyeball test.

Wrong.

[little dave hedgehog]

[BrooklynRed]

There are exceptions to every rule, but wasn't it obvious to everyone that Juan Mata was a better football player than Stewart Downing? Did anyone watch Andy Carroll and think "£35 million for that, thankyouverymuch", the reality that Jordan Henderson barely stood out in a mediocre midfield, the fact that we all could look at these deals and say... what? The almost universal response to these purchases was one of disappointment and faith-- we'll have to trust the club and get in line behind the team, etc. The same could be said of other targets, Loic Remy, etc etc. Not good enough.

I am certain that we all saw these players playing multiple games over the years, and none of them passed the eyeball test for a club like ours. Look at their stats now? what was visible at the time of purchase that might have predicted the performance we've seen this year? For me, it was looking at the players in matches and knowing they did not seem good enough. sure, I assume our staff looked at match footage and read stats, but there is no way to justify these purchases against the evidence we all saw.

[Mattshark]

There are exceptions to every rule, but wasn't it obvious to everyone that Juan Mata was a better football player than Stewart Downing? Did anyone watch Andy Carroll and think "£35 million for that, thankyouverymuch", the reality that Jordan Henderson barely stood out in a mediocre midfield, the fact that we all could look at these deals and say... what? The almost universal response to these purchases was one of disappointment and faith-- we'll have to trust the club and get in line behind the team, etc. The same could be said of other targets, Loic Remy, etc etc. Not good enough.

I am certain that we all saw these players playing multiple games over the years, and none of them passed the eyeball test for a club like ours. Look at their stats now? what was visible at the time of purchase that might have predicted the performance we've seen this year? For me, it was looking at the players in matches and knowing they did not seem good enough. sure, I assume our staff looked at match footage and read stats, but there is no way to justify these purchases against the evidence we all saw.

I think all these players where subject to a degree of media hype in this country, as was Adam. I have a slight worry our scouting consisted of Match of the Day.

[dww]

There are exceptions to every rule, but wasn't it obvious to everyone that Juan Mata was a better football player than Stewart Downing? Did anyone watch Andy Carroll and think "£35 million for that, thankyouverymuch", the reality that Jordan Henderson barely stood out in a mediocre midfield, the fact that we all could look at these deals and say... what? The almost universal response to these purchases was one of disappointment and faith-- we'll have to trust the club and get in line behind the team, etc. The same could be said of other targets, Loic Remy, etc etc. Not good enough.

I am certain that we all saw these players playing multiple games over the years, and none of them passed the eyeball test for a club like ours. Look at their stats now? what was visible at the time of purchase that might have predicted the performance we've seen this year? For me, it was looking at the players in matches and knowing they did not seem good enough. sure, I assume our staff looked at match footage and read stats, but there is no way to justify these purchases against the evidence we all saw.

I think most people thought Mata was better than Downing but that without CL football and given we would not be able to beat Chealseas wage offer we had no hope of getting him.

I think Carroll was more or less a panic buy - or more accurately a buy we new we over paid for. In order to stand a chance of CL football we had to buy a striker. We had no time to piss about and splashed cash on someone we thought had the right characteristics. Up until now it looks like we were wrong.

I really don't think we have any evidence of quite what any statistical analysis played in the decisions made. Also I think anyone who has been on forums for any length of time can point to a massive list of eye-ball fails for the vast majority of posters. It's only about 2 years since everyone was demanding Quaresma.

[Exiled_red]

I think all these players where subject to a degree of media hype in this country, as was Adam. I have a slight worry our scouting consisted of Match of the Day.

Adam is a classic Match of the Day signing, alot of people were saying it before we even signed him.

[Charly]

I think Carroll was more or less a panic buy - or more accurately a buy we new we over paid for. In order to stand a chance of CL football we had to buy a striker. We had no time to piss about and splashed cash on someone we thought had the right characteristics. Up until now it looks like we were wrong.

The irony being we nearly managed it without him, and even then it was clear he looked out of place in a team playing some really good football.

Considering how late in the day it was we sold Torres, I think our options were really narrow, being that no big team would sell while in the Champions League. Dalglish probably didnt care who we bough at that stage, as we didnt have any other striker available (counting Suarez as a forward). I dont thnk the scouting staff had a chance to really give him a good going over. Question is, should we already have known he didnt suit the style Dalglish plays?

I would be surprised if we did not have a file on every player in the top European leagues. Obviously the accuracy depends on the scout. But I would expect a bit more accuracy in the league you play in, not based upon the two games you play each season.