Title Race

[Vermilion]

Is this the inane ramblings thread?

No, it just contains some inane ramblers is all.

[dom9]

Well it was fb who started talking about **** if I recall correctly.

[Muddled]

Yup. The first post of the day:

I'm going to **** my pants if Southampton get a draw against City. It would pretty much be down to goal difference then assuming we only draw against City and beat everyone else.

The tone was set.

[G]

The thread itself has been very quiet of late hence why the ramblers are rambling looking for inanity

[Leyton388]

We'll I've told one of the lads to pass a message on to Rickie to do us a favour at the weekend. Fingers crossed he can.

Come across this post on another forums and thought it was pretty good.

If we do win the league this season we'll be fighting them off like Zombie hordes, that's for sure. Every ****er will want in. You can be sure the word has spread around the world that Liverpool are back. You heard Pep giving us full respect the other day. They love us in South America because of Suarez. We're big all over the world. Even the glory hunters are having a sniff at us now, And even if we do come up short for the dream this season, I can see Brendan getting to cherry pick a couple of real world cup standouts to strengthen us. We're going to be horrible next season. Real bullies.

There's even an upside to us having a low euro rating in that if we do qualify for CL, our group will be filled with some **** hot teams, which in a way just makes us more attractive to potential new signings. I can see a perfect storm of Brendan getting some serious backing as reward for his efforts, and our reputation for awesome footy attracting some of the most exciting players in the world. It's on.

[dww]

Of course, but if winning had a statistical effect on the chances of winning the next game, there would be evidence to prove it.

Rather, winning one game is more common than winning two games, which is more common than three on the bounce. So statistically, the more games you win, the less likely it is that the next game will be a victory.

Or something.

That is a terrible analysis.

Think of tossing a coin - something where the probability is obviously fixed. The probability of you winning the next coin toss is nonetheless clearly independent of the last trial.

[dom9]

That is a terrible analysis.

Think of tossing a coin - something where the probability is obviously fixed. The probability of you winning the next coin toss is nonetheless clearly independent of the last trial.

Hence, "or something".

But... The odds of any specific consecutive sequences happening increase the longer the sequence continues, and the number of permutations increases as a result.

[captainfog]

Hence, "or something".

But... The odds of any specific consecutive sequences happening increase the longer the sequence continues, and the number of permutations increases as a result.

Disco over on ST who is an expert at statistics due to his job had this to say during a similar discussion:

It's like flipping 14 heads in a row. Might be 16000-1 at the beginning, but now we've tossed 8 and it's 64-1

So in a way with every win the chances of us reaching 14 wins on the bounce shortens.

Obviously though football matches aren't tosses of a coin and matches are far more complex and rarely 50/50 affairs.

[Fosterbloke]

Yup. The first post of the day:

The tone was set.

[Fosterbloke]

I hear that Senegal have some brilliant players. Shame they didn't make it to the world cup.

[Gazzla]

If someone at the start of the year offered me 4th and a CL play off to get into it I would have ripped their arm off, if someone offered me 2nd at this moment in time I'd tell them to **** off.

We are playing superb however the games that worry me are West Ham and Palace away, not because they are good teams but because they we always struggle against neanderthal football and **** teams that lump it in the box for donkeys to attack, have we ever beaten Pulis away?

As I've posted in another thread, no team in the top flight has ever won 14 games on the trot in one season, our record is 11 and when you consider how dominant we were in that spell it puts our current task in perspective.

[Fosterbloke]

It's interesting in that we HAVE to beat Man City. Usually this means the team that wants to get the result has to come and attack, thus leaving space for the opposition to exploit.

The great thing with us is that we always come to attack and win so there's less nerves involved.

If we beat City then we win the league. I do think we need to beat Chelsea too as City's goal difference will only increase with the **** they have to play.

[Fivex]

Disco over on ST who is an expert at statistics due to his job had this to say during a similar discussion:


So in a way with every win the chances of us reaching 14 wins on the bounce shortens.

Obviously though football matches aren't tosses of a coin and matches are far more complex and rarely 50/50 affairs.

That's how I had it in my head. And anyway, excellent form by definition will increase your chance of winning the next match because your players are on fire and confidence is sky high.

[topscorer]

From what everyone says no one has ever won 14 premier league games on the bounce. I'm going to be positive and say we can be the first but as a realist I'd say if we are going to drop points I'd prefer to drop them anywhere except the Man City and Chelsea games.

[Muddled]

You know it.