Expectations (hopes) with 1/3 of the season gone...

[Saveloy]

I just think we're going to keep getting better. It's still so early for Jurgen. We're still **** at home and if we can sort that out we'll be flying. All the tough away games out of the way...it's difficult to not feel a bit excited. I don't expect to win it obviously but I reckon by Christmas we could and should be right in the mix. Mental.

I guess I agree really. I'm just trying not to get my hopes up too much. I've been hurt before

[Fredo]

That's that ****ed then.

It had to be done.

[The_weatherman]

I guess I agree really. I'm just trying not to get my hopes up too much. I've been hurt before

Every time I start to think about anything else than top four I have to manually crush those thoughts of mine, they just keep popping up if my mind wanders a little bit, which it's prone to do tbf.

[redmike65]

Daily Mash knows the score

LIVERPOOL fans are gearing themselves up for six months of ultimately pointless optimism.

With the return of Daniel Sturridge and Jurgen Klopp in charge, there is a new mood of confidence that the team can clinch the title, only not quite.

Liverpool fan Nathan Muir said: “I really believe that this season we can do it, but won’t do it.

“I can see us going all the way, three points clear with two games to go, only to lose to Watford at home after Mignolet throws the ball into his own net with no player near him.

“This is what Liverpool Football Club is all about. Passion. Heart. Desire. The shirt. Wanting it more than the other team. Wanting it so much you become paralysed with fear at the thought of not getting it.”

Muir added: “We’re like a man who’s desperate to impress the woman of his dreams on a

and thanks to foresterbloke

date, and it’s all going brilliantly until he vomits on her pudding.”

[Fosterbloke]

What did he add?! Where did it go?!

[Gingawaria]

Top 4 will do for me this season. Can't even begin to contemplate winning the league, not until I've seen us at the top of the league at some point this season anyway!

[G]

Comfortable top 4 , win a cup, within a few points of top spot. We've improved so much in a short space of time and now we are getting everyone fit I think we've a great chance of being in the mix. Just like 13/14 I'd much rather enjoy the ride and believe we are in the hunt than be all Sarb-ish and refuse to let myself believe.

We have Klopp, the quadruple is on

[Mark79]

After 14 games in 13/14 we were 7 points off Arsenal in 1st.
This year we're only 6 points off Man City.

So we'll be top of the table again for Christmas

[cream]

If we can make 2/3 points on the leaders by the end of the year(which is quite easily possible), then I can't see why we can't challenge for the league this season. Chelsea/Mourinho are only ones in this league that really know how to close the season out but they look miles away, I'm pretty convinced we'll do just as well, if not better, than the other three.

[Ams12]

I say push for the title while we have an outside chance still...gotta aim high and have that belief instilled that it is still achievable. Even if we dont quite make it at least we made a real good go of it and ideally that will leave us in the top 4 come the end of the season. Plus Klopp has experience winning a league with Dortmund so will only help us further if we are in the thick of it come the closing stages. I'm just gonna enjoy the ride all the way no matter the outcome

[BobTheCharmer]

Top 4 is the only aim for me (just for this season Bob, before you tear my throat out ) . Not because it's an end in and of itself, but because it'll give Klopp a better platform to blitz everything in sight next season.

I'm a natural pessimist and reckon honours this season are a bit too far out of reach (except maybe the carling cup) but 4th would presumably release extra funds and I'm excited at what players Klopp and the committee can land.

[Hemingway]

Neil Atkinson from the Anfield Wrap wrote in the Echo the other day that his expectations had no ceiling, but also no floor. Probably a good way to look at the rest of the season.

Also: wasn't sure where to put this, but this seemed the proper place because we're talking about expectations. For those who might care, a quick tour of where a few models say we are and could go, using data from the start of the season and from Klopp's games only (just in the PL; I debated adding in EL and cup games to get the sample size up, but the data's not as available and I didn't want to do it if I couldn't do it for every team and every metric. Just know that if all of Klopp's games were included our numbers would tick a little higher). If you hate stats in football, just skip past. There's a graph and explanation of the stat under the spoiler.

Team Rating
Total: 5th
Klopp: 3rd

This was a metric created by James Grayson, a combination of the next two metrics (TSR and SoTR) plus a third, called PDO, that measures save% and conversion%. It's roughly as predictive as expected goals models in the PL, and much easier to calculate. I went through these ones myself, with the shots data coming from WhoScored.

TSR
Total: 3rd
Klopp: 3rd

Pretty simple: shots for / (shots for + shots against). It's the proportion of shots in a game that a team takes. "Shot dominance" is another term used for it and is probably more illustrative.

SoTR
Total: 3rd
Klopp: 3rd

Same as TSR, but for shots on target only.

Caley xG (shots)
Total: 4th
Klopp: 4th

Each shot is assigned a probability of becoming a goal based on historical data of shots from its location and a few other factors (headed/non-headed, assist type, etc.). Note that if you included Klopp's EL games, we'd improve but not enough to make up the ground on Spurs.

Will's xG (state of play)
Total: 3rd
Klopp: 3rd

A state-of-play xG model: instead of each shot being assigned a probability of a goal, goal probabilities are derived from passes and ball position. I prefer a this sort of model for its nuance: the Ibe chance against Swansea, for example, had a fairly high probability of becoming a goal but never resulted in a shot, so it went unrecorded in a shots-based model. In a state-of-play model, the chance is accurately reflected. That said: turning possession into shots is a skill, so this sort of model does miss something. But early on when we don't know if a team has a fundamental strength/weakness in possession-to-shot conversion, it's probably more helpful. He says we're better under Klopp, but not by enough to catch City/Arsenal.

So, for those who just looked at that and don't really know what to take away from it: Klopp has very definitely made us better, we're probably one of the best three or four teams in the league, we're right in the thick of it for top four, and the title is probably a little beyond us right now.

To win the title, we'd have to not just play to the level Klopp's had us at so far, but also keep getting better, and hope that City's first eight games were a fluke and that Arsenal fall apart. The last is likely given the injuries; I'm wary about City, though. I just don't see any reason to believe their last six games, during which they've been pretty average, are any more predictive than their first eight, when they were the best team in the league by a mile. Even if they sustain a period of poor performance, they'll just sack Pellegrini and bring in an older head on an interim basis while they wait for Pep, and changing managers midseason usually has a reset-button effect that would be enough for them. They don't need someone to come in with a revolution, like Klopp; they'd just need someone to get them playing to their baseline and that'd probably be enough for the title. Catching them will be tough, and require them playing along.

And then there's United. They're not in the top three in any of these. In SoTR, they're below Palace. They're sixth in Caley's xG model, seventh in Will's, even below Chelsea. We don't know that much about analytics in football, but what we do know tells us that United are mediocre and should fall back to earth any day now. But there they are, winning football matches, sitting in third, a point off the top. To challenge for fourth, let alone the title, we'd need them to regress to where the numbers say they should be at some point. And frankly I have no idea if they will, or if they do when that'll be. They play a style of football hitherto unseen, at least not a style we have any data on. It could well be that Van Gaal has gamed the system, and he's doing stuff that the models aren't picking up on. But then that's what everyone said about Lucien Favre, too, and look what happened there. Whether it's luck or just very successfully doing very hard things and walking a tightrope, I'm going to assume that at some point they start to fail. I just don't know how long it'll take.

Anyway: after all this, I'm sticking by my original assessment, which is that I'm happy enough with fourth and a cup run. Maybe we do keep getting better, maybe City is complicit in their own downfall, and maybe United does finally fall away like they should. Won't rule it out, won't be disappointed if it doesn't happen. No ceiling, no floor.

[redmike65]

Interesting, but you can prove Simon Mignolet is a very good keeper with stats.

[BigChief]

Interesting, but you can prove Simon Mignolet is a very good keeper with stats.

[RichC]

Does this look at how the other teams compare from the point Klopp took over or are they from the start of the season ?