Man City (A) - 25/11/23, 12:30pm

[dom9]

To be fair though, there must be a larger percentage of refs to select from that doesn't make the decision to whine quite so easy. It's just providing ammo

People just love to whine, particularly when it comes to football conspiracies.

[Mark79]

I think where the ref lives is given a bit too much attention but it makes for a good conspiracy theory. Does where the referee lives really happen to have any impact on decision making, unless they're actually a supporter?

I mean, I'm from London and I can't stand all of those clubs.

That was secondary point though. But that in tandem with the far bigger issue - his track record of contriving to give vital controversial decisions in City's favour, arguably adds up somewhat.

[Scratch]

I think where the ref lives is given a bit too much attention but it makes for a good conspiracy theory. Does where the referee lives really happen to have any impact on decision making, unless they're actually a supporter?

I mean, I'm from London and I can't stand all of those clubs.

I dunno, the man is from GM, so the majority of his friends/neighbours/people in the local pub will have allegiance to one of the 2 big clubs, so any decision he makes that goes against them could have repercussions and promote animosity towards him, it might not be the first thing he thinks off, but i bet it has some small, subconscious effect on his decision making.

[RedReet]

I dunno, the man is from GM, so the majority of his friends/neighbours/people in the local pub will have allegiance to one of the 2 big clubs, so any decision he makes that goes against them could have repercussions and promote animosity towards him, it might not be the first thing he thinks off, but i bet it has some small, subconscious effect on his decision making.

Doesn't have to be a conspiracy, it's human nature and almost to be expected. Just like a ref will likely be influenced by a home crowd, whether he intends to be or not.

And then of course there are the conscious bad decisions not necessarily to do with location. Tierney's issue with Kloop or Dein admitting he ignored a big call to spare 'his mate'. Referees aren't robots and all these things will play a part.

[RedReet]

I think where the ref lives is given a bit too much attention but it makes for a good conspiracy theory. Does where the referee lives really happen to have any impact on decision making, unless they're actually a supporter?

I mean, I'm from London and I can't stand all of those clubs.

Here's a bit from the Tomkins article on refs, specific to this:

You might think, as a Liverpool or Man United fan, that having a referee from up the M62 is a bad thing.

But you’d be wrong. Generally speaking, it’s quite the opposite.

And this, above all other data I’ve looked at, smacks of a ref who corrupts himself to the situation.

The difference between an official reffing a game at a stadia in his hometown to him reffing a game at a rival’s stadium is massive.

Homer bias (which I’ve shown does exist, at least in terms of more Big Decisions going to home teams) goes out of the window. This is not about doing a good job; but being seen to do a good job. About being seen as unbiased, to the point of trying too hard. (Remember, it’s often not what we actually do, but what we’re seen to be doing, that matters most in modern life.)

A Mancunian at Anfield and a Liverpudlian at Old Trafford are going to be ultra-generous (bar the odd exception).

When these same refs do those same teams but it’s not in Manchester or Liverpool, they seem extra punitive.

Anyone reffing their hometown club and their home stadium is also much less generous.

In terms of ratio of Big Decisions For vs Big Decisions Against, the ref is virtually THREE TIMES more generous when a Liverpudlian is in Manchester or a Mancunian in Liverpool, to if the ref was hometown/home club

Note: only refs who do both sets of clubs were included. Also, I chose not to go and look at Everton’s data as they are not in any way comparable to Liverpool, Man United and Man City in the period in question.

(But it could be interesting to see if the trend continues versus their Big Decisions from other refs and in other locations. Someone else can have that pleasure, but I suspect Everton are also not seen as fierce rivals to the Manchester clubs, to remove another layer of spice.)

So, only Mike Dean out of any refs connected to Merseyside, as Robert Jones, Jarred Gillett and Peter Bankes do not do Liverpool (two possibly support Liverpool, but Gillett is an Australian!).

Even Dean did not do Liverpool regularly until 2020, and yet he was a Tranmere fan. Dean also never did a single Big Six opponent, let alone Main Four, in his 12 Liverpool games. The average league position of the team Liverpool faced with Dean as the ref was 14th.


Also, Chris Kavanagh doesn’t do City very much, and did so mostly during Covid, which is an interesting if perhaps meaningless observation. He gave them two Big Decisions in four home games.

Since collating the data in early September 2023, Anthony Taylor sent off Rodri at the Etihad, to continue the trend I spotted in the data: hometown ref, hometown club, and ref will be harsher (unless Liverpool are the visitors to the Etihad and Vincent Kompany is on the lunge!).

Then Chris Kavanagh gave Liverpool a penalty at Anfield – the first Premier League penalty for a foul on Mo Salah in almost two full years; two decisions that could almost be predicted with hindsight via the data, albeit both seemed clear and not controversial.

Both fit the pattern of hometown ref punishing hometown team, and rival city ref away at rival’s home giving home team a Big Decision; and while obvious to give, refs with different profiles will still make Shocking Decisions in similar situations, or just be avoidant.

So the pattern has only got stronger so far in 2023/24, so far, from what I can tell.

[RedReet]

He's dreadful. He's given them some shocking get out of jail big decisions in the past and by complete coincidence, he's from Greater Manchester.

I didn't realise he was VAR for the Rodri 'handball'.

[red g]

of all the ides I think a 3 year ban from the permier league is the on ly punishment that will have an effect.

[Mark79]

I didn't realise he was VAR for the Rodri 'handball'.

Yep, and that was just the tip of the iceberg with Tierney and Kavanagh that season.

Remember the 3 big decisions all going Spurs way in the 2-2?

Jota denied a blatant penalty.
Harry Kane avoiding a red for a flying over the ball 2 footer on Robbo even after VAR review.
Robbo upgraded from a yellow to a red on advise of the VAR.

Same Ref/VAR duo as the Rodri handball.

Mad how these 2 lads from Greater Manchester managed to innocently make so many highly dubious/wrong decisions that just so happened to crucially benefit Man City.

[Irishnev]

To be fair though, there must be a larger percentage of refs to select from that doesn't make the decision to whine quite so easy. It's just providing ammo

Tompkins did his analysis and I think there were very few if not no refs from London. The majority were up the country around Manchester and Yorkshire - all golf buddies of Howard Webb

[RedReet]

Yep, and that was just the tip of the iceberg with Tierney and Kavanagh that season.

Remember the 3 big decisions all going Spurs way in the 2-2?

Jota denied a blatant penalty.
Harry Kane avoiding a red for a flying over the ball 2 footer on Robbo even after VAR review.
Robbo upgraded from a yellow to a red on advise of the VAR.

Same Ref/VAR duo as the Rodri handball.

Mad how these 2 lads from Greater Manchester managed to innocently make so many highly dubious/wrong decisions that just so happened to crucially benefit Man City.

For some reason I thought that was Atwell on VAR that day.

Tompkins did his analysis and I think there were very few if not no refs from London. The majority were up the country around Manchester and Yorkshire - all golf buddies of Howard Webb

No London refs which is totally bizarre.

[S-RED]

Smash these cunts, straight out the blocks, darwen on fire; make it that the ref is irrelevant

[Craig_H]

I think where the ref lives is given a bit too much attention but it makes for a good conspiracy theory. Does where the referee lives really happen to have any impact on decision making, unless they're actually a supporter?

I mean, I'm from London and I can't stand all of those clubs.

I find it hard to believe that anybody who is into football, can be from and raised in a footballing city like Manchester, and not have some sort of feelings (positive or otherwise) towards the Manc clubs.

I just don’t see how you’d be entirely devoid of any feelings towards them. Makes no sense.

[frank the tank]

Yep, and that was just the tip of the iceberg with Tierney and Kavanagh that season.

Remember the 3 big decisions all going Spurs way in the 2-2?

Jota denied a blatant penalty.
Harry Kane avoiding a red for a flying over the ball 2 footer on Robbo even after VAR review.
Robbo upgraded from a yellow to a red on advise of the VAR.

Same Ref/VAR duo as the Rodri handball.

Mad how these 2 lads from Greater Manchester managed to innocently make so many highly dubious/wrong decisions that just so happened to crucially benefit Man City.

that was ****in criminal.

And you have to listen to the likes of Keys and Gray come out with garbage such as "it all evens out over a season"...... Total bull****. That combo of incompetent / dodgy cunts cost us a 4 point swing just on those 2 games alone. Cunts

[rudedog]

I find it hard to believe that anybody who is into football, can be from and raised in a footballing city like Manchester, and not have some sort of feelings (positive or otherwise) towards the Manc clubs.

I just don’t see how you’d be entirely devoid of any feelings towards them. Makes no sense.

Yep, hard not to think there will be some sort of unconscious bias at play.

[Mr Pink]

Yep, hard not to think there will be some sort of unconscious bias at play.

Ya of course. There’s always gonna be unconscious bias, no matter where he’s from. For me, all they can do is try to minimize it and don’t put us in a position where we’re asking why is a ref from Manchester refereeing a game between a Manchester team and their biggest rival.

When you stop and think about it- English refs wouldn’t be allowed to ref an English team in European competitions, because they’d be biased- but I’m sure their biases against other teams in England will be stronger than their biases against other non English teams in Europe. Or at least that would be true for me.