Man City (A) - 25/11/23, 12:30pm

[Buzzo]

Gakpo left on bench and Vurg subbed off at HT for Netherlands game.

[Tatterdemalion]

Here's a bit from the Tomkins article on refs, specific to this:

You might think, as a Liverpool or Man United fan, that having a referee from up the M62 is a bad thing.

But you’d be wrong. Generally speaking, it’s quite the opposite.

And this, above all other data I’ve looked at, smacks of a ref who corrupts himself to the situation.

The difference between an official reffing a game at a stadia in his hometown to him reffing a game at a rival’s stadium is massive.

Homer bias (which I’ve shown does exist, at least in terms of more Big Decisions going to home teams) goes out of the window. This is not about doing a good job; but being seen to do a good job. About being seen as unbiased, to the point of trying too hard. (Remember, it’s often not what we actually do, but what we’re seen to be doing, that matters most in modern life.)

A Mancunian at Anfield and a Liverpudlian at Old Trafford are going to be ultra-generous (bar the odd exception).

When these same refs do those same teams but it’s not in Manchester or Liverpool, they seem extra punitive.

Anyone reffing their hometown club and their home stadium is also much less generous.

In terms of ratio of Big Decisions For vs Big Decisions Against, the ref is virtually THREE TIMES more generous when a Liverpudlian is in Manchester or a Mancunian in Liverpool, to if the ref was hometown/home club

Note: only refs who do both sets of clubs were included. Also, I chose not to go and look at Everton’s data as they are not in any way comparable to Liverpool, Man United and Man City in the period in question.

(But it could be interesting to see if the trend continues versus their Big Decisions from other refs and in other locations. Someone else can have that pleasure, but I suspect Everton are also not seen as fierce rivals to the Manchester clubs, to remove another layer of spice.)

So, only Mike Dean out of any refs connected to Merseyside, as Robert Jones, Jarred Gillett and Peter Bankes do not do Liverpool (two possibly support Liverpool, but Gillett is an Australian!).

Even Dean did not do Liverpool regularly until 2020, and yet he was a Tranmere fan. Dean also never did a single Big Six opponent, let alone Main Four, in his 12 Liverpool games. The average league position of the team Liverpool faced with Dean as the ref was 14th.


Also, Chris Kavanagh doesn’t do City very much, and did so mostly during Covid, which is an interesting if perhaps meaningless observation. He gave them two Big Decisions in four home games.

Since collating the data in early September 2023, Anthony Taylor sent off Rodri at the Etihad, to continue the trend I spotted in the data: hometown ref, hometown club, and ref will be harsher (unless Liverpool are the visitors to the Etihad and Vincent Kompany is on the lunge!).

Then Chris Kavanagh gave Liverpool a penalty at Anfield – the first Premier League penalty for a foul on Mo Salah in almost two full years; two decisions that could almost be predicted with hindsight via the data, albeit both seemed clear and not controversial.

Both fit the pattern of hometown ref punishing hometown team, and rival city ref away at rival’s home giving home team a Big Decision; and while obvious to give, refs with different profiles will still make Shocking Decisions in similar situations, or just be avoidant.

So the pattern has only got stronger so far in 2023/24, so far, from what I can tell.

Nonsensical analysis. Doesn't control for when players objectively require punishment. Maybe at home players push it a little harder? Maybe they don't Either way, this is analysis entirely without merit.

[RedReet]

Nonsensical analysis. Doesn't control for when players objectively require punishment. Maybe at home players push it a little harder? Maybe they don't Either way, this is analysis entirely without merit.

You say it's nonsensical, even though in the full article he explains the metrics he uses and why he uses them, so it makes perfect sense to anyone who reads it properly. You then request that he factors in an element which is subjective and immeasurable, so who's really the one making no sense?

I have a feeling that you're not a fan of Tomkins then?

[SB]

Gakpo left on bench and Vurg subbed off at HT for Netherlands game.

Gakpo on after 70 odd minutes

[Buzzo]

Gakpo on after 70 odd minutes

and bagged a goal on 81.

[Mark79]

[ame]https://twitter.com/dmlynchlfc/status/1727245569415078394[/ame]

[dom9]

I find it hard to believe that anybody who is into football, can be from and raised in a footballing city like Manchester, and not have some sort of feelings (positive or otherwise) towards the Manc clubs.

I just don’t see how you’d be entirely devoid of any feelings towards them. Makes no sense.

I think those clubs elicit strong feelings in people regardless of how close they live to their stadia.

So equally.... I just don’t see how you’d be entirely devoid of any feelings towards them if you follow football. Makes no sense.

[dom9]

You say it's nonsensical, even though in the full article he explains the metrics he uses and why he uses them, so it makes perfect sense to anyone who reads it properly. You then request that he factors in an element which is subjective and immeasurable, so who's really the one making no sense?

I have a feeling that you're not a fan of Tomkins then?

I started reading it and the sheer banality of it all made me start to question my will to carry on living, so I gave up (reading, not living - I was fine again once I snapped out of it).

Never change Tomkins. Never change.

[SB]

and bagged a goal on 81.

Good to see. Lads are in form , let’s have these ****ers

[RedReet]

I started reading it and the sheer banality of it all made me start to question my will to carry on living, so I gave up (reading, not living - I was fine again once I snapped out of it).

Never change Tomkins. Never change.

Well, just wait until he does the updated version, with added variables.

But the reality is locality does impact performance, so it should be something the FA/PL/PGMOL look in to. Right now I feel their hands are tied somewhat, with so many officials from NW, but it should be their responsibility to identify and train a more diverse group of officials.

Anyway, this is the City match thread we shouldn't be talking about refs, we should be talking about Nunez.

[Buzzo]

No idea why, but I’ve a feeling we are going to win this.

[Doc_Piptorious]

No idea why, but I’ve a feeling we are going to win this.

Gonna put their heads on spikes.

[RedReet]

Almost 8 years to the day when we beat them 4-1 there in Klopp's first season. If we got at them from the first whistle like we used to a few years ago, we could easily repeat that feat.

Just very difficult to do that with limited training and an early KO though.

[frank the tank]

No idea why, but I’ve a feeling we are going to win this.

Its the hope that kills ya!!!

A win here though, and we are looking at a few tasty fixtures coming up - fulham, sheff united and Palace before we have Man United and Arsenal both at home. Burnley then on boxing day. With a few cup games thrown in there too (LASK, Union and West Ham) if jurgen could do his magic in having the team primed and ready for a productive December like he had in previous years, then we could start to ****in believe.

City have Spurs and Villa after they play us.

Arsenal have Villa away and Brentford away before they play us again.

Spurs have Villa, West Ham, City and Newcastle next.



So a win on Saturday and we are cooking on ****in gas!!!

[Buzzo]

I normally think we will lose against them away.

I think we may be a bit of an unknown quantity for them this time. There are a few players who they've not faced before. We are in good form... why the **** not?