Newcastle (H) Monday Jan 1st

[Craig_H]

But the fact that he carried on for a few steps before going down does suggest that the contact wasn’t emphatic or impactful enough to take him off his feet.

[spud_gun]

That angle makes it look as though there were two points of contact from the keeper

First with the hand as Jota passes him and then with the elbow as Jota is past him

[RedReet]

But the fact that he carried on for a few steps before going down does suggest that the contact wasn’t emphatic or impactful enough to take him off his feet.

The foot that was clipped buckled next step though, which could have been because of the impact or it might just have been a dive.

The contact mightn't have been enough to make him go down, but it was enough to put him off his stride and had he stayed up, the certain goal he would have had had there been no contact would most likely have been missed. The keeper comes for the ball, clips the player instead, preventing a goal. Pen for me.

[Exiled_red]

https://twitter.com/TOTKHQ/status/1741952539841437802

His elbow takes out his standing foot (plus light contact with his gloves beforehand) and prevents a certain goal.

The "smart forward play" is fine for many if you are English or one of the media darlings, if not you are a "dirty diving cheat"

[Craig_H]

The foot that was clipped buckled next step though, which could have been because of the impact or it might just have been a dive.

The contact mightn't have been enough to make him go down, but it was enough to put him off his stride and had he stayed up, the certain goal he would have had had there been no contact would most likely have been missed. The keeper comes for the ball, clips the player instead, preventing a goal. Pen for me.

As I say, I’m not convinced it was the right decision, but it was a subjective one, not clear cut either way.

I’ve seen people asking why Jota didn’t just put it into the net.

I think he was a bit off balance & because of that, not convinced that he’d have scored it. We all know that if a foul is committed, but the player doesn’t go down, he doesn’t get the foul. Jota’s aware of this too. So, with doubt as to whether he would’ve scored, he went down. I don’t blame him.

If the ref buys it or thinks it’s a pen, we’ll have the pen.

[Doc_Piptorious]

The "smart forward play" is fine for many if you are English or one of the media darlings, if not you are a "dirty diving cheat"

Put Kane in the same situation and it would be smart play and that going down when you feel contact is the correct thing to do.

[Craig_H]

Put Kane in the same situation and it would be smart play and that going down when you feel contact is the correct thing to do.

If our player has felt contact, which has put him off balance and he’s not confident that he’s going to score the goal, I’d be far more pissed off with him staying on his feet and missing, than with him choosing to go down.

Most refs are simpleton enough to decide it’s not a foul, when the player stays on his feet. Until that is fixed, I’ll always back our player to go down - obviously that’s as long as they weren’t sure they could just score the chance.

[Exiled_red]

As I say, I’m not convinced it was the right decision, but it was a subjective one, not clear cut either way.

I’ve seen people asking why Jota didn’t just put it into the net.

I think he was a bit off balance & because of that, not convinced that he’d have scored it. We all know that if a foul is committed, but the player doesn’t go down, he doesn’t get the foul. Jota’s aware of this too. So, with doubt as to whether he would’ve scored, he went down. I don’t blame him.

If the ref buys it or thinks it’s a pen, we’ll have the pen.

That's the reality of it, there is contact if he doesn't go down it's not a pen. If he stays on his feet and doesn’t score, in the analysis the pundits will say, if he goes down it's a pen. Whether you like it or not going down is probably the right option

[Craig_H]

That's the reality of it, there is contact if he doesn't go down it's not a pen. If he stays on his feet and doesn’t score, in the analysis the pundits will say, if he goes down it's a pen. Whether you like it or not going down is probably the right option

Indeed. And sadly, choosing to go down when you’re able to stay on your feet, will remain the right decision until/unless the referees clock onto the fact that it can still be a foul if the player doesn’t go down.

Whether it’s stated in the media or not, there’s a degree of responsibility and blame that falls with the referees, when it comes to players choosing to go down easily or diving. It’s not right but it’s seen as a remedy to another problem that’s entirely the fault of the officials.

[BG1973]

Diaz did exactly the same, he also could have taken the shot.

On that huge sample size I assume that's what our players are told to do.

If the ref misses it and play continues then VAR 'should' (?!) correct the ref if there was an obvious foul.

Think that's more likely than VAR going back and awarding a pen if player continues and misses/saved.

[Exiled_red]

Indeed. And sadly, choosing to go down when you’re able to stay on your feet, will remain the right decision until/unless the referees clock onto the fact that it can still be a foul if the player doesn’t go down.

Whether it’s stated in the media or not, there’s a degree of responsibility and blame that falls with the referees, when it comes to players choosing to go down easily or diving. It’s not right but it’s seen as a remedy to another problem that’s entirely the fault of the officials.

[RedReet]

I know rules are rules, but I hate penalties given when contact doesn't disadvantage the attacker. Quansah's one the other week, ball was already out of the box when he made contact, so a pen for nothing. Think Robbo had similar a few years ago, both players swinging for ball on the edge of the box, he's a split second late, so it's a pen.

I know rules are rules, but it doesn't sit right that they are given as pens, but Jota being denied an almost certain goal could have been ignored by another ref if he didn't think there was enough contact.

Fabinho's one when he won the ball fairly outside the box a few years ago, but somehow conceded a pen was another brutal one.

[Irishnev]

Read this earlier and found it pretty staggering:

FiveThirtyEight no longer compiles xG data. However, if we use Opta’s expected goal stats for the match, only three of the 36,193 games in the aforementioned database were more one-sided:

Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle: 6.68 xG difference

Barcelona 4-0 Deportivo La Coruna, 2017: 6.73

Manchester City 8-0 Watford, 2019: 6.79

VVV Venlo 0-13(!) Ajax, 2020: 8.04

Not only is it staggering when you consider the gulf in class between some teams, when on paper, us and Newcastle should be closely matched. But also because some people, including our own fans are making out we were lucky to get the win.

xG has some subtle differences depending on the model - I think our xG got massively inflated by the two pens and the actions around them. Both chances that lead to the pen would have a high xG value, the pens themselves would have a high xG value and then Trent’s follow up on the first pen would have v high xG as well

We absolutely battered them and it’s reflected in the xG difference but the numbers are slightly inflated due to the above reason. 2 actions for the second pen and 3 actions for the first one

[Exiled_red]

The xG without the pens themselves was still about 5.6 I think.

[RedReet]

xG has some subtle differences depending on the model - I think our xG got massively inflated by the two pens and the actions around them. Both chances that lead to the pen would have a high xG value, the pens themselves would have a high xG value and then Trent’s follow up on the first pen would have v high xG as well

We absolutely battered them and it’s reflected in the xG difference but the numbers are slightly inflated due to the above reason. 2 actions for the second pen and 3 actions for the first one

Aye, the pens inflate them massively, but are you sure the fouls for the pens are counted when no shots came off?