2024/25 Season

[Kenneth]

I would hope it’s over by then! We have a 12 point lead with 9 to play, that would need to be reduced by 9 to make this game live, which would mean we have had an epically **** April

We have two more games after the arsenal game so the swing before it wouldn't need to be so stark to make it relevant.

[Doc_Piptorious]

I would hope it’s over by then! We have a 12 point lead with 9 to play, that would need to be reduced by 9 to make this game live, which would mean we have had an epically **** April

The way to look at it, imo anyway, is not how many points we can afford to drop, but rather at how many Arsenal cannot afford to drop.


They basically need perfection for the rest of the season.

We can lose three, maybe even four, games worth of points and still have it in our own hands.


Arsenal on the other hand could win nine out of nine games and still fall short. But what Arsenal cannot do from here on in is drop points. They already need us to drop twelve or thirteen points out of the remaining twenty seven so any points they drop themselves just increases the amount of points they need us to drop.


Perfection gets them to 85 points. We drop close to half the available points to us and we end up on 85 points.

And to be absolutely sure we cannot be caught we need just under 1.8 points per game for the rest of the season (which would see us finish on 86 points) and we do that and it does not matter what Arsenal do. To put that 1.8 into context, we have been averaging 2.41 ppg for the season to date.


We also have more home games left this season than away games so our crowd can play a part, not to mention that game we have against Arsenal, the game Arsenal fans seen so sure is three points in the bag for them, is also at Anfield.


We are not in a position to celebrate a title just yet, but we are most certainly in a position to be quietly confident that our manager and team can get it over the line.


Me I am just looking forward to the fume, and excuses about it being a weak league how everyone bar us gets injuries, how refs favour us, and the gob****es on Sky trying to peddle the weak league angle whilst at the same time trying to say the PL is the best and strongest league in the world.

[rudedog]

Especially when you consider that Aresnal have yet to put together a winning run of more than 3 consecutive games this season

[dom9]

If the gap to Arsenal when we play them is 9 points or less, that game will be a bit hairy. We could win the league in that match. Lose and it goes to the last two rounds of games.

Arsenal's final game is Southampton so that's a guaranteed 3 points for them. Newcastle before that might cause them a problem though.

[Doc_Piptorious]

If the gap to Arsenal when we play them is 9 points or less, that game will be a bit hairy. We could win the league in that match. Lose and it goes to the last two rounds of games.

Arsenal's final game is Southampton so that's a guaranteed 3 points for them. Newcastle before that might cause them a problem though.

If the gap was nine points going into the game against Arsenal and we lose to them, then they still would need us to lose the two remaining games, they would still need to win those two games and also ensure their GD was greater than our own.


What they really need is for us to lose three of the coming six games (or drop that number of points through drawing games) and for them to win all six of their games for the game at Anfield to be capable of causing a seismic shift.


It is all if this happens and if that happens on their side of things though.


We can very much afford a number of slip ups. They can afford none and still are relying on us having a major collapse.


It's not won yet, but it is getting damn close.

We win four of the six games ( Everton (h), Fulham (a), West Han (H), Leicester (a) Spurs (h), Chelsea (a) ) and Arsenal still go into the final two games still needing us to drop points even if they do manage to beat us at Anfield.



Arsenal's fixtures before playing us are


Fulham (h)
Everton (a)
Real Madrid (h)
Brentford (h)
Real Madrid (a)
Ipswich (a)
Palace (h)
Bournemouth (h)


And if they do manage to get past Real Madrid in the CL, then they get two more CL games before they meet us, one of those being midweek before the Anfield game.


So we have only six games before we meet them. Then have a least eight before they meet us, potentially ten.

[vlahka]

I just want them to be the team that gives us a guard of honour. Thats not too much to ask is it!

[Doc_Piptorious]

I just want them to be the team that gives us a guard of honour. Thats not too much to ask is it!

Well if Arsenal drop points in the preceding six games (or we just match Arsenal's tally) then you may very well get your wish

[Sus]

If the gap was nine points going into the game against Arsenal and we lose to them, then they still would need us to lose the two remaining games, they would still need to win those two games and also ensure their GD was greater than our own.


What they really need is for us to lose three of the coming six games (or drop that number of points through drawing games) and for them to win all six of their games for the game at Anfield to be capable of causing a seismic shift.


It is all if this happens and if that happens on their side of things though.


We can very much afford a number of slip ups. They can afford none and still are relying on us having a major collapse.


It's not won yet, but it is getting damn close.

We win four of the six games ( Everton (h), Fulham (a), West Han (H), Leicester (a) Spurs (h), Chelsea (a) ) and Arsenal still go into the final two games still needing us to drop points even if they do manage to beat us at Anfield.



Arsenal's fixtures before playing us are


Fulham (h)
Everton (a)
Real Madrid (h)
Brentford (h)
Real Madrid (a)
Ipswich (a)
Palace (h)
Bournemouth (h)


And if they do manage to get past Real Madrid in the CL, then they get two more CL games before they meet us, one of those being midweek before the Anfield game.


So we have only six games before we meet them. Then have a least eight before they meet us, potentially ten.

This is the way to look at it! I’m convinced

Only thing is, 4 wins out of 6 feels slightly ambitious at the moment, given the last week

So I guess we are back to week by week, game by game, starting with Everton

[Doc_Piptorious]

This is the way to look at it! I’m convinced

Only thing is, 4 wins out of 6 feels slightly ambitious at the moment, given the last week

So I guess we are back to week by week, game by game, starting with Everton

Well in our last six PL games we won four and drew two. 2.33 ppg. So there is that form to look at too.

Or our last ten PL games from which we have won seven and drawn three. 2.4 ppg.


People can point at our play and say we are "only" grinding out results, but our form in terms of what matter, results, is very very consistent.


Has there been a decline in our form in the second half of the season?

Technically yes but it is not a big one. From the first eighteen games we averaged 2.5 points per games which over 38 games would be a 95 point season. Crazy good and a tally that has only been reached or bettered by two teams in the past afaik. Us and City


From the last twelve games we have averaged 2.33 points per game which would work out at 88.5 points over the course of a season so round up to 89 or round down to 88, you still end up with form that is very much title chasing and maybe title winning.


So our so called dip has meant we have gone from imperious form to "only" good enough to win the title handily sort of form



And to make it even better. If our form drops off a cliff from where it is now, we still only need a points per game average of 1.8 (technically 1.77) points per game to be uncatchable by Arsenal even if they win nine in a row.



Arsenal's PPG form over the past ten and six games?


Ten games - 1.9 ppg

Last six games - 1.83


Seems to be getting ignored that not only have they never come close to matching our PPG, but their own PPG has been dropping off as well.


And to dig a little deeper.

Their PPG from the first half of the season......2 ppg.



And now they need to basically go on a 3 ppg run for the rest of the season and hope we drop below 1.66 ppg for the rest of the season.

[Norbs]

This is the way to look at it! I’m convinced

Only thing is, 4 wins out of 6 feels slightly ambitious at the moment, given the last week

So I guess we are back to week by week, game by game, starting with Everton

We need to assume it's just physical fatigue that will repair and not mental fatigue that will fester

[Sus]

The numbers are reassuring for sure - my issue, and it's not 100% rational, is that our worst performance of the season has capped off a terrible week for us, and while the international break is welcome for the team, it does mean we have to wait 2.5 weeks for the team to put it right

That's a lot of time for negative thoughts to fester

[Doc_Piptorious]

The numbers are reassuring for sure - my issue, and it's not 100% rational, is that our worst performance of the season has capped off a terrible week for us, and while the international break is welcome for the team, it does mean we have to wait 2.5 weeks for the team to put it right

That's a lot of time for negative thoughts to fester

Or......it is plenty of time to allow for the sting of the bad results to subside.

[Sus]

Or......it is plenty of time to allow for the sting of the bad results to subside.

Both! I’m now much more sanguine than a few days ago

Looking forward to April 2 already

[Norbs]

The numbers are reassuring for sure - my issue, and it's not 100% rational, is that our worst performance of the season has capped off a terrible week for us, and while the international break is welcome for the team, it does mean we have to wait 2.5 weeks for the team to put it right

That's a lot of time for negative thoughts to fester

And the last team we'd want to face coming out of that is them

[Sus]

And the last team we'd want to face coming out of that is them

Exactly. Proper test for us