Thoughts for 25/26 season

[rudedog]

Not many teams have won the premier league by playing 38 games of scintillating football.

[Angryred]

Definitely not, just by mastering the art of winning while playing **** too.

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[Sus]

If we break 90 points then I don't think anyone call that a very average winner. That's a title winning total almost any season other than the ones were Klopp's and Guardiola's teams went stratospheric. It would put us in around the top 10% in terms of league winning totals.

Also, when ourselves and City were putting up 97+ points each a season, people said the league was weak because there were only 2 teams and the rest were just fodder.

Now there's a bit more of an even spread and somehow that's now become the rationale for the league being weak? It's BS, the same people just changing their tune because they're going to deride Liverpool success regardless.

Put it this way, if Arsenal were in our position, thier fans sure as **** wouldn't be saying it's a weak league this season.

100% this. the argument moves around depending on the situation.

we clearly have been the best team in the league across all stats and while we have a rebuild ahead of us in the summer so this team is closer to the end of the journey than the start, we would be very worthy winners, if it happens

[Kenneth]

Then you've watched a high quality team that's demonstrated impressive control in thier games across the season to this point.

Sure. I'm not saying we aren't a good side or that we don't deserve to be top of the league. As title winning sides goes, ours is pretty average though, particularly in attacking positions. The team who finishes second will be a distinctly average PL runner up when compared to the quality of runners up in the recent and less recent past. If anyone feels like this is saying winning this season is less of an achievement, that's on them, it's not what I'm saying. Surely it's more of an achievement to win the league when you have to carry two largely ineffective attackers in most games.

[Angryred]

& with other teams shooting themselves in the foot in the proverbial sense

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[Mark79]

Sure. I'm not saying we aren't a good side or that we don't deserve to be top of the league. As title winning sides goes, ours is pretty average though, particularly in attacking positions. The team who finishes second will be a distinctly average PL runner up when compared to the quality of runners up in the recent and less recent past. If anyone feels like this is saying winning this season is less of an achievement, that's on them, it's not what I'm saying. Surely it's more of an achievement to win the league when you have to carry two largely ineffective attackers in most games.

I know you’re not saying we don’t deserve to be where we are. You’re saying this team would be an average title winning team in the scheme of things. I get what you’re saying, I just don’t agree

And yes, Arsenal may finish on a relatively low tally for runners up.
But regardless, we’re still on course for finishing on an above average title winning total, even if our nearest contender had been in the 90 point region.

[Mark79]

I know you’re not saying we don’t deserve to be where we are. You’re saying this would be an average title winning team in the scheme of things. I get what you’re saying, I just don’t agree

And yes, Arsenal may finish on a relatively low tally for runners up.
But regardless, we’re still on course for finishing on an above average title winning total, even if our nearest contender had been in the 90 point region.

[Doc_Piptorious]

Thought it was so good, you had to say it twice?

[Doc_Piptorious]

Thought it was so good, you had to say it twice?

[Doc_Piptorious]

.

[Mark79]

That's weird. I made an edit but it became a second post instead.

[Sus]

If we break 90 points then I don't think anyone call that a very average winner. That's a title winning total almost any season other than the ones were Klopp's and Guardiola's teams went stratospheric. It would put us in around the top 10% in terms of league winning totals.

Also, when ourselves and City were putting up 97+ points each a season, people said the league was weak because there were only 2 teams and the rest were just fodder.

Now there's a bit more of an even spread and somehow that's now become the rationale for the league being weak? It's BS, the same people just changing their tune because they're going to deride Liverpool success regardless.

Put it this way, if Arsenal were in our position, thier fans sure as **** wouldn't be saying it's a weak league this season.

Bringing this post up again as The Athletic does a good job here of explaining why the PL is stronger, not weaker, this year (basically academy talent being spread more widely)

How the Premier League has been democratised by the growing spread of academy talent
Liam Tharme

March 19, 2025
Player development is analogous to popcorn.

Kernels, even when they are cooked all together, under the same conditions, pop at different moments. Footballers are no different.

The poster-boy examples of Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Phil Foden (Manchester City), Jacob Ramsey (Aston Villa) and Jack Hinshelwood (Brighton & Hove Albion) are exceptional examples of players who rose through the age groups at their boyhood club and are first-team regulars. The rule is that academy graduates often need a move — or multiple — before they find the optimal environment.

There are caveats, as in some instances the pathway might be blocked and a sale necessary regardless of talent, if their position/role is already filled in the first team. Likewise, in a PSR era where club-trained players (at that club for three years between the ages of 15 and 21) count as ‘pure profit’, there is a greater incentive to sell graduates.

Then there is the reality of physical and mental maturity. The past four full Premier League seasons have seen an increase in minutes to under-21 players, a preference for early developers. Players mature differently, though — and frontal lobes can still develop by 25. Some adapt to first-team environments quickly while others need longer and loan spells.

It is why, much in the same way that BMI is flawed (because it does not take into account muscle mass), looking purely at minutes given to club-trained players fails to acknowledge the success of the Premier League academies in developing talent which has flourished elsewhere.

According to CIES, a football observatory group, the share of minutes given to academy graduates has dropped each season since 2021-22, from 11.2 per cent that campaign to 6.2 this term. By that metric, academies are regressing.

However, Gareth Southgate’s England were one of the youngest teams at Euro 2024, and 19 of his 26-man squad were trained at academies following the implementation of the Elite Player Performance Plan (EPPP) in 2012-13.

England were runners-up, beaten 2-1 by Spain, one of the nations that they looked at for inspiration when they created the EPPP — to restructure academies and develop “more and better” home-grown players, with the longer-term view of winning a major tournament.

Cole Palmer, who equalised for England in the final, is a perfect example of a talented academy player leaving and shining. Wythenshawe-born, Palmer was at City from age eight, captained the under-18s and made 19 first-team appearances across three years. The problem was the lack of demand for No 10s at City: Kevin De Bruyne, Foden and Bernardo Silva, three of the best attacking midfielders in European football, were in his way.

“He was asking for two seasons to leave,” Pep Guardiola said of Palmer in April 2024. “I said, ‘No, stay’. What could we do? I didn’t give him the minutes that he deserved and wanted, the minutes he now has at Chelsea,” he said.

Those with City affiliations may look ruefully on his departure — for which Chelsea paid £42.5million — and how quickly his potential was realised. Last season, Palmer finished second in the league for goals (22, scoring all nine penalties) and was runner-up in the assists chart (11).

Consider that this is a club with arguably the finest academy era in Premier League history. Between 2014 and 2019, Chelsea made four out of five consecutive UEFA Youth League finals (the under-19 Champions League equivalent) and won it twice. Then, in 2021, their senior team won the Champions League.

A very specific sample shows the volume and spread of academy talent. Putting an age cap at 28 — as players that old would have been 16 when the EPPP launched in 2012 and were entering the professional development phase teams (under-16s to under-18s) — there are 210 players with 900+ minutes in the Premier League this term.

Of those, 76, which equates to over one-third, came through the youth ranks of a Premier League (45 players) or EFL (31) club. Just 17 of the 72 homegrown players are still at the club who trained them as youngsters.

It means there are over four times as many academy graduates who have left for other Premier League teams. Isolate that just to ‘Big Six’ clubs, and two-thirds of their graduates (20 of 30) are playing elsewhere.

The significance is the positive impact those players have had on raising the level of teams chasing European spots. A gap of five points between fourth place (Chelsea) and 10th (Bournemouth) is the narrowest after 29 gameweeks since 1992-93.

Liverpool being 12 points clear is a recognition of their strength and stability, while drop-offs from Arsenal and Manchester City and the struggles of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have opened a window of opportunity. The chasing pack have duly seized it.

City head coach Pep Guardiola spoke pointedly about this in the pre-match press conference before they beat Newcastle 3-0 in mid-February. “Who will do 100 points now in modern football? I’m waiting. Or four (Premier League titles) in a row? I’m waiting.

“Gundo (Ilkay Gundogan) won the treble (2022-23), went to Barcelona for one year and came back. Different in just one year? Unbelievably! That’s the truth; the teams are much, much better, in all departments, people prepare so well”.

Fulham were a team Guardiola cited as evidence for raised levels. Marco Silva’s side, in eighth on 45 points, are on track to better the club-record finish of 53 points in 2008-09, when they finished seventh and qualified for the Europa League.

Their solution to replacing No 9 Aleksandar Mitrovic, who departed at the end of 2022-23, was two-fold. Raul Jimenez was signed as a like-for-like replacement from Wolves but Silva upped the quality of technicians in midfield. He brought in Emile Smith Rowe permanently and Reiss Nelson on loan, both from Arsenal. Those two, and Hale End graduate Alex Iwobi, who joined Fulham from Everton in summer 2023, make it three former Arsenal outfielders in the side, plus Bernd Leno in goal.

Likewise, centre-back Calvin Bassey (age 25) was schooled at Leicester City and central midfielder Andreas Pereira (29) is a Manchester United academy graduate. Left-back Antonee Robinson (27), second-top in the Premier League assists charts this season, came through at Everton.

Nottingham Forest are a standout example of a team raising their level by recruiting talent from Premier League clubs. Chelsea graduates Ola Aina and Callum Hudson-Odoi, plus Elanga, are fundamental to their direct attacking style. No 10 and captain Morgan Gibbs-White rose through the age groups at Wolverhampton Wanderers, while the roles of full-back Neco Williams (Liverpool graduate) and Elliot Anderson (Newcastle) have been understated this season.

When Forest lost 4-3 at Newcastle last month, 14 of the 22 starters — 10 of whom were 25 or younger — were academy graduates of a Premier League or EFL club.

Eddie Howe brought full-backs Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall — both Chelsea academy graduates — to Newcastle in the same window last summer, and they have been pivotal in evolving their wide attacking play.

Meanwhile, the Bournemouth trio of Marcus Tavernier (Middlesbrough), Lewis Cook (Leeds United) and Antoine Semenyo (Bristol City) have their roots at EFL clubs. Perhaps it is no wonder they suit Andoni Iraola’s direct style so well, which has Bournemouth ninth and in the mix for a European spot.

In 2022, a 10-year review of the EPPP was published, categorising three ‘archetypes’ of development pathways. There is the Alexander-Arnold ‘fast-tracked’ way into the first team; the ‘tiered progression’ of EFL loans that Harvey Barnes went through before breaking through at West Brom; the third, ‘tiered progression,’ of which Ollie Watkins is the perfect example but Tavernier and Semenyo have followed too, rising steadily from League One to the Premier League.

Likewise, Aston Villa have a quartet — Matty Cash (Nottingham Forest), Morgan Rogers (West Brom), Ezri Konsa (Charlton) and Tyrone Mings (Ipswich and Bournemouth) — who have progressed from either the Championship or League One to England’s top tier. Academy exemplar Ramsey, who joined the club at age six, broke through in 2018-19 when Villa were in the Championship.

The domestic improvements have been reflected, or perhaps proved, at international level. Between 2017 and 2023, England won five youth titles, reached a World Cup semi-final and two Euros finals, and stayed in the top five FIFA spots from October 2018 onwards — their longest stint that high in the rankings since their inception in 1992.

At Euro 2020 and World Cup 2022, the Premier League was the best-represented league but also came out top developmentally. Another report from CIES found that 73 players who went to the 2022 World Cup were at Premier League clubs for at least three years between ages 15 and 21 — the most of any league. France’s Ligue 1, notorious for its developmental qualities, had a higher number of matches and minutes played by youngsters but had only ‘trained’ 65 players.

In short, I am asking you to reconsider the idea that Liverpool’s cantering to a league title reflects poorly on the division. With Newcastle, Brighton, Fulham, Villa and Bournemouth currently occupying sixth through to 10th — all clubs have had spells in the Championship in the past 10 years — there is so much to be said for how much stronger the league is overall. And that owes to academies.