Le Tour 2009

[FatTony]

Le Tour starts this saturday and team Astana are looking very strong.

Contador is the favourite by some way and with a support team containing Armstrong you can see why. His ability in both time trials and in the mountains makes him a firm favourite.

Castre has the experience from his previous win,and this years climbing friendly tour favours him, but his team is weaker than when he won it.

Cadel Evans has had his chances written off by most in the know, but I still think that as an outsider he's a very good bet for a podium finish.

Andy Schleck is a future winner and I would not be surprised to see him in contention come the final stages, but he is prone to having an off day and with this years mountainous stages he may be a few bad days too far away.

Menchov, consistent and strong but he's never really been in contention and may not have the extra factor thats needed.

If I was a betting man there's no real value in Contador's odds, but thats for a very good reason. Couple it up with him winning the opening stage and le tour overall.

If you can get decent odds on Evans or Schleck for a podium place thats where I'd place my money.

Cavendish for the green jersey, Schleck for the White and Contador for the Yellow and possibly Sastre for King Of The Mountains.

Armstrong? Well, Contador is the team leader, Lance is in a supporting role and thats where he'll stay unless Contador retires from the race. There is no value in Armstrong from a betting perspective (the price is short and the odds are stacked against him).

[Neil Young]

Certainly Contador has to be the favourite. However it's hard to believe Armstrong has come back just to make up the numbers and be a superdomestique for Contador. The concern for Astana has to be whether the team will be split. Armstrong has made a point of working hard to help teammates like Leipheimer (e.g. in the Tour of California) and notably did not immediately drop back to help Contador in the Dauphine recently. I'd agree Contador is likely quicker over the course as a whole but Armstrong can put him under pressure and while Contador will probably faster up Mont Ventoux Astana will have had to make a decision on who the team leader is by then. If Armstrong is ahead and looks like he can win then they may have opted for him by then.

Personally I think it's an unlikely scenario but I don't rule it out.

Contador spent the Dauphine helping Valverde win - not because they're both Spanish but because he has close links with the team anyway, it's his probable way out of Astana next year and he needs allies in the peloton, especially if he can't be sure of his team's loyalty. I think we can expect Caisse D'Epargne to help Contador if their leader is effectively out of contention.

Sastre looked good recently and Evans has a stronger team than last year and looks more aggressive than hitherto (although I wondered whether that was because Contador was putting him under pressure to attack and so weaken him for the Tour).

I can't see Menchov winning it as he must be a little spent after his heroics in the Giro.

Schleck's win earlier in the season (was it Liege-Bastogne-Liege - I can't remember) was excellent and he's a great climber but he's surely still too weak in the time trials for the overall win this year. Assuming he's riding, I can't see Basso doing that well either (he looked weak in the Giro) but perhaps he'll be in better competitive shape now.

Cavendish has said he's going for stage wins rather than green jersey placings but he aims to get to Paris and as the fastest man in the world he's got to be the main contender for green, especially in the absence of Sniffer Boonen.

I just got back from riding a short section of last year's Tour course.

Off to Monaco tomorrow for the start on Saturday.

[FatTony]

Certainly Contador has to be the favourite. However it's hard to believe Armstrong has come back just to make up the numbers and be a superdomestique for Contador. The concern for Astana has to be whether the team will be split. Armstrong has made a point of working hard to help teammates like Leipheimer (e.g. in the Tour of California) and notably did not immediately drop back to help Contador in the Dauphine recently. I'd agree Contador is likely quicker over the course as a whole but Armstrong can put him under pressure and while Contador will probably faster up Mont Ventoux Astana will have had to make a decision on who the team leader is by then. If Armstrong is ahead and looks like he can win then they may have opted for him by then.

Personally I think it's an unlikely scenario but I don't rule it out.

Contador spent the Dauphine helping Valverde win - not because they're both Spanish but because he has close links with the team anyway, it's his probable way out of Astana next year and he needs allies in the peloton, especially if he can't be sure of his team's loyalty. I think we can expect Caisse D'Epargne to help Contador if their leader is effectively out of contention.

Sastre looked good recently and Evans has a stronger team than last year and looks more aggressive than hitherto (although I wondered whether that was because Contador was putting him under pressure to attack and so weaken him for the Tour).

I can't see Menchov winning it as he must be a little spent after his heroics in the Giro.

Schleck's win earlier in the season (was it Liege-Bastogne-Liege - I can't remember) was excellent and he's a great climber but he's surely still too weak in the time trials for the overall win this year. Assuming he's riding, I can't see Basso doing that well either (he looked weak in the Giro) but perhaps he'll be in better competitive shape now.

Cavendish has said he's going for stage wins rather than green jersey placings but he aims to get to Paris and as the fastest man in the world he's got to be the main contender for green, especially in the absence of Sniffer Boonen.

I just got back from riding a short section of last year's Tour course.

Off to Monaco tomorrow for the start on Saturday.

Awesome, have a great trip

[MrsB]

I'll be watching most of it on TV like every year despite drug scandals and all – how sad am I?

And here's the official website: http://www.letour.fr/us/homepage_courseTDF.html

[badpiggy]

Certainly Contador has to be the favourite. However it's hard to believe Armstrong has come back just to make up the numbers and be a superdomestique for Contador. The concern for Astana has to be whether the team will be split. Armstrong has made a point of working hard to help teammates like Leipheimer (e.g. in the Tour of California) and notably did not immediately drop back to help Contador in the Dauphine recently. I'd agree Contador is likely quicker over the course as a whole but Armstrong can put him under pressure and while Contador will probably faster up Mont Ventoux Astana will have had to make a decision on who the team leader is by then. If Armstrong is ahead and looks like he can win then they may have opted for him by then.

Personally I think it's an unlikely scenario but I don't rule it out.

Contador spent the Dauphine helping Valverde win - not because they're both Spanish but because he has close links with the team anyway, it's his probable way out of Astana next year and he needs allies in the peloton, especially if he can't be sure of his team's loyalty. I think we can expect Caisse D'Epargne to help Contador if their leader is effectively out of contention.

Sastre looked good recently and Evans has a stronger team than last year and looks more aggressive than hitherto (although I wondered whether that was because Contador was putting him under pressure to attack and so weaken him for the Tour).

I can't see Menchov winning it as he must be a little spent after his heroics in the Giro.

Schleck's win earlier in the season (was it Liege-Bastogne-Liege - I can't remember) was excellent and he's a great climber but he's surely still too weak in the time trials for the overall win this year. Assuming he's riding, I can't see Basso doing that well either (he looked weak in the Giro) but perhaps he'll be in better competitive shape now.

Cavendish has said he's going for stage wins rather than green jersey placings but he aims to get to Paris and as the fastest man in the world he's got to be the main contender for green, especially in the absence of Sniffer Boonen.

I just got back from riding a short section of last year's Tour course.

Off to Monaco tomorrow for the start on Saturday.

[MrsB]

Off to Monaco tomorrow for the start on Saturday.

[dww]

[ningnangnong]

Cavendish takes out the second stage easily. His team set it up brilliantly for him.

[FatTony]

Yep, cracking team effort by Columbia (Renshaw in particular) who set up the Manx Missile brilliantly to burst through. Cavendish was pulling away from the chasing pack as he crossed the line.

Cancellara is riding well and should keep the yellow jersey warm for Contador.

[Neil Young]

Got back from Monaco early this morning.

I may be able to post some pics later.

Drinking tea and going to get some food before saddling up and wheeling into La Grande Motte for, I hope, another Cavendish victory.

Temperature outside is 28°C and rising fast.

[ningnangnong]

He does it again.

[Neil Young]

I missed it though.

[FatTony]

I missed it though.

Brilliant ride again by Columbia, they took their advantage on a bend in the cross wind, striking really when everyone else should've been expecting it. Lance, using his experience saw this coming and reacted superbly. Contador, Sastre and Evans were left looking like amateurs and have only themselves to blame.

Armstrong laid down the gauntlet. I sat watching open mouthed to his interview at the end of the race. He said there are two leaders in Astana and having won 7 tours, he deserved a little more respect! Get in there Lance. This really adds even more spice to what will turn into one of the most fascinating and entertaining tours for many years, but at the same time not do any good for his reputation in France

Cavendish is a fooking star, blowing everyone away again. The lad never fails to congratulate each and every one of his team mates. Renshaw has been superb.

I am loving this years race.

[Neil Young]

Wow, did he say that? I heard the interview but was watching it on France 2 and could hear half of what he said while the other half was being talked over by some fredophone doing translation.

OK, I'm starting to revise my idea that Astana don't care which Astana rider wins it...

[Darkon]

Spanish papers are reporting today that they are huge fights in the Astana camp, and that the team is splitting over loyalty to either Armstrong or Contador.

Could be interesting if true up to todays team dicipline