The Prem, is it a Top4 or Top3,

[anfieldanfield]

Well said, how anyone can disagree with that i'll never know.
Some fans need a reality check. I used to be one of them.
The United game at home was the game were it hit home that we're just not up to it, maybe it's a mental block, maybe it's just a lack of quality in certain areas, who knows but at the end of the day we're just not good enough to be in the title race.

Spot on Marky.

I have to say it makes me cringe when I see posters/players saying "we can still win the title this season".

Some people need to wake up.

[carheex]

FFS AD, if (and of course that conditional is something you can seize on if you want) we win our two games in hand then we are just seven points behind Arsenal. Given there would still be 17 games left, we are not out of the title race.

I think it's unlikely we'll win the title but to use those doubts and to ignore our games in hand so that one can reach the desired, negative conclusion about being "out of the title race by early January" is entirely unwarranted.

In all likelihood, how many points would we need from our remaining 19 games to win the league? if you take away the points against the Big3 which we "won't" win, then we'll probably have to win every game to still be up there come May. have we shown signs that we are capable of such a run? have we done it before?

[Neil Young]

In all likelihood, how many points would we need from our remaining 19 games to win the league? if you take away the points against the Big3 which we "won't" win, then we'll probably have to win every game to still be up there come May. have we shown signs that we are capable of such a run? have we done it before?

I think there are two questions:

Can a club make up a deficit of 7 points with 17 games left? The answer to that must be yes, even if it's not the most likely outcome.

Will we win our two games in hand and then make up 7 points? I think the answer to that is unlikely.

The first question is about principles, the second one is about practicality and I think there is a vital difference between the two.

[Jazzmaster]

In all likelihood, how many points would we need from our remaining 19 games to win the league? if you take away the points against the Big3 which we "won't" win, then we'll probably have to win every game to still be up there come May. have we shown signs that we are capable of such a run? have we done it before?

If we cant beat the big three at home then its unlikely we will beat any of them away. Which is not something one should say about a team if it is to be challenging for a title.

Clearly we are some distance off achieving a proper challenge.

[homer1]

FFS AD, if (and of course that conditional is something you can seize on if you want) we win our two games in hand then we are just seven points behind Arsenal. Given there would still be 17 games left, we are not out of the title race.

I think it's unlikely we'll win the title but to use those doubts and to ignore our games in hand so that one can reach the desired, negative conclusion about being "out of the title race by early January" is entirely unwarranted.

........... is the correct answer

It is highly unlikely that we will win the league this year and agreed Arsenal, Utd & Chelsea have done it recently and are therefore favourites again this time out but potentially 7 points behind with 54 to play for is hardly out of the race is it??

I'm not a stato but I don't remember being this close points-wise for a number of years and with a couple of big players just back / coming back and potentially one or two recruits I see no reason why we can't be in the mix with 8 - 10 games to go

Would have thought this would be a reason for optimism myself

[Mattshark]

........... is the correct answer

It is highly unlikely that we will win the league this year and agreed Arsenal, Utd & Chelsea have done it recently and are therefore favourites again this time out but potentially 7 points behind with 54 to play for is hardly out of the race is it??

I'm not a stato but I don't remember being this close points-wise for a number of years and with a couple of big players just back / coming back and potentially one or two recruits I see no reason why we can't be in the mix with 8 - 10 games to go

Would have thought this would be a reason for optimism myself

Also if it is top, since we have been in the top 3 the last two seasons wouldn't that place us in it.

Not recently winning the league does not mean we are not capable of winning it, it means we haven't won it recently. We are clearly capable of winning it, whether we will is another matter, but we are still in this title race.

[Neil Young]

Also if it is top, since we have been in the top 3 the last two seasons wouldn't that place us in it.

Not recently winning the league does not mean we are not capable of winning it, it means we haven't won it recently. We are clearly capable of winning it, whether we will is another matter, but we are still in this title race.

I like your logic (mainly, I suspect, because we agree).

[carheex]

Also if it is top, since we have been in the top 3 the last two seasons wouldn't that place us in it.

Not recently winning the league does not mean we are not capable of winning it, it means we haven't won it recently. We are clearly capable of winning it, whether we will is another matter, but we are still in this title race.

Blackburn have won it more recently than us - does that mean they're capable? EVERY team is capable, if we're talking about in theory. You can only say they are realistically capable if they and can back up their claims to being challengers with recent league successes against the players/teams that they are up against.

[Neil Young]

Blackburn have won it more recently than us - does that mean they're capable? EVERY team is capable, if we're talking about in theory. You can only say they are realistically capable if they and can back up their claims to being challengers with recent league successes against the players/teams that they are up against.

I'll stick my neck out here and say we're more capable of winning it this season than Blackburn are.

[Jazzmaster]

Also if it is top, since we have been in the top 3 the last two seasons wouldn't that place us in it.

Not recently winning the league does not mean we are not capable of winning it, it means we haven't won it recently. We are clearly capable of winning it, whether we will is another matter, but we are still in this title race.

No we are not. We're looking to finish 3rd at best.

[Neil Young]

No we are not. We're looking to finish 3rd at best.

Your logic is back-to-front.

If we win it it proves we were capable of winning it and if we don't we weren't.

[RawRed]

How our team measures up against the other three will be decided when we play them at their own grounds later on in the season. Great as he is, Rafa has failed to win a single point away from home against these sides over the last three years. 0/27 tells me that we have a way to go.

It's not just losing to these teams that's the problem. It's the fact that it shows that we still lack the ruthlessness of champions. The same streak which, dare I say it, the scum have shown to beat us in the last minute at the Old Toilet and the last two times at Anfield

[CAD]

It's still top 4 but we need investment to stay in.

It use to be top1. Bring back the 80's...

[Jazzmaster]

Your logic is back-to-front.

If we win it it proves we were capable of winning it and if we don't we weren't.

Look I'm no doom and gloom merchant but its clear to everyone with a pair of eyes that we are not good enough to win the league. Its certainly mathematically possible, but realistically we will not get anywhere near the top of the table again this season.

[JRC]

I don't fundamentally disagree about who has proven themselves capable of winning the title, but it's still a question of timescale and definitios to suit as in -

If we are not one of the Big 4, how come we finsihed above one of the others for the past 2 years (and may well do again this year)? Why is 'won the title in the past 5 years' a criteron - change it to last 3 years, and Arsenal no longer qualify, nor did ManU last year? CL qualfication is what defines the 'Big 4' and consistently acheiving that makes you one - but if it's about winning stuff, our CL performances make us an even bigger club. As the others are also targetting CL glory as well, less succesfully than us, we have to be counted as Big 4, even if we have yet to prove it by winning the League recently.

There is even an argument that the other 3 are now really more interested in CL than PL - hence Mourinho's sacking, and one of the reasons Arsenal recruted Wenger in the first place. But what makes me laugh - somewht nervously - is the way Utd/Hacks are spinning the line that Fergie has set overhauling our 18 as his target before retiring, when for years the line has been that he was determined to win the CL again - which failure will extend to 10 years if he doesn't do it this year.

OK, I'm desperate for the league, and acknowledge that we are still falling a bit short (although Rafa is, imho, still, by some way,the best option we have to get there), but I resent the way others -and sometimes some of our own - use selective memory and pernicious revisionism to dismiss or denigrate our standing and status.