DIC latest - the largely wild speculation thread

[MattB]

Yeah he'll want to, but what legal right does he have to?

Surely all Hicks can do is match any bid, or shut up?

Well once a formal bid is made that is true. However, it seems they are/were still negotiating a price and he can certainly influence that process as we have seen over the last few weeks...

[vantage]

He just can't help himself. I suspect that all this public display of confidence masks an underlying realisation that he's about to lose control of his new project.

[MattB]

It's baffling, I keep hearing how Dic sort of have Hick's over a barell, with America in financial turmoil, him not being able to find a buyer over there, the time on the refinancing ticking down now, his veto on GG with the clock running.

If ALL this was the true, why do i get the feeling that its HIM calling all the shots, & Dic doing all the chasing. If they were in such a strong position why all this ****ing about, just TELL him what's going to happen & make it so.

Ok i know it's complicated, but i think we could be underestimating how STRONG Hicks position is.

Given the state of the US economy and the private equity boom going into a premature freefall, he may well see LFC as his strongest/most secure long term investment. That alone would explain his desperation to stay in control. That way he gets to say how the debts are serviced and protect his own long term interests. He knows that if he lets DIC get any measure of control in the running of the club he is ****ed

[Craig_H]

Well once a formal bid is made that is true. However, it seems they are/were still negotiating a price and he can certainly influence that process as we have seen over the last few weeks...

Yeah, but shouldnt it be Gillett talking to DIC with hicks maybe having a word in his ear on occasion?

Rather than hicks seemingly doing ALL the negotiating with DIC, without anyone hearing a peep from the bloke whose shares are actually under discussion.

[Vermilion]

He just can't help himself. I suspect that all this public display of confidence masks an underlying realisation that he's about to lose control of his new project.

Love it if that were the case, but it's just to simplistic, if it was that way he could just name a good price & take it, making a huge profit rather than being forced out and losing face. I think.

[Vermilion]

Given the state of the US economy and the private equity boom going into a premature freefall, he may well see LFC as his strongest/most secure long term investment. That alone would explain his desperation to stay in control. That way he gets to say how the debts are serviced and protect his own long term interests. He knows that if he lets DIC get any measure of control in the running of the club he is ****ed

I thought that, he's better off with LFC earning him Sterling over here, with whats going on in usa.

[MattB]

Yeah, but shouldnt it be Gillett talking to DIC with hicks maybe having a word in his ear on occasion?

Rather than hicks seemingly doing ALL the negotiating with DIC, without anyone hearing a peep from the bloke whose shares are actually under discussion.

Gillett is negotiating with DIC - but in private. Hicks is the man under pressure and is doing it all rather more publicly. He would have a say on a number of things, like the overall valuation of the club that is laid down by any deal with Gillett and, most importantly, the ongoing management structures.

If he sees his LFC assets as propping up the rest of on ailing portfolio he will negotiate hard on both counts

[MattB]

I thought that, he's better off with LFC earning him Sterling over here, with whats going on in usa.

Its more about the value of his assets than the money they make at the moment. His wealth and his ability to do business are both dependent on the value of his assets, not his bank balance. If his assets in the states are falling in value, he'll want to prop up the overall portfolio by maximising the value of his shares in LFC. Any port in a storm and all that

[Pacman]

I give up with all this.

As a great man once said 'I am only concentrating on coaching my team' well I am only concentrating on supporting my team.

Let the fat cats in the suits fight this out we don't get a say after all.

Inter Milan here we come.

YNWA

[red g]

It's baffling, I keep hearing how Dic sort of have Hick's over a barell, with America in financial turmoil, him not being able to find a buyer over there, the time on the refinancing ticking down now, his veto on GG with the clock running.

If ALL this was the true, why do i get the feeling that its HIM calling all the shots, & Dic doing all the chasing. If they were in such a strong position why all this ****ing about, just TELL him what's going to happen & make it so.

Ok i know it's complicated, but i think we could be underestimating how STRONG Hicks position is.

from my experience of working with compainies in Dubai, they think they can steamroll the competition due to being cash rich. They have come up against a stubborn texan and they may have the money but i think they have bittten off more than they can chew here.

I am sure he doesnt like the way they operate but not many in the western world enjoy workin with the dubai Lot. !!

[Darkon]

The important thing to me right now (besides tonights game!!!), is whether DIC have found a loophole in the veto-clause as indicated in the press. DIC are still discussing whether they could go ahead with the offer, and work their way around it. The real problem seems to be that only 3 parties know the real outline of the clause; Hicks, Gillet and proberly DIC via Gillet.

Whats even more important is, that if there is no loophole, so that DIC can't buy ouy Gillet immediatly then Gillet can also use his "watertight" clause on Hicks keeping him from gaining majority and other investors to come in to Kop holdings.

This furthermore comes down to a showdown if wanted between the americans. Hicks might be able to raise funds via selling out in his other assets, sports franchises and through that be able to go on with the investment, build the stadium, refinancing the loan etc. Gillet on the other hand don't seem to have much to keep going with. This however could be DIC's way in. They could make deals to invest in Gillets holding companies or investmentcompany of some sort, so that he effectively uses DIC money to keep investing, which could get knocked of the final sales price (or be re-invested).

That way perhaps, Gillet can take his profit and DIC come in. If there is no loophole, my guess would be that DIC's only chance is that the americans can't refinance the deal, or that DIC can invest through Gillets other companies and effectively put huge pressure on Hicks...

Hope it makes sense....

[Vermilion]

Its more about the value of his assets than the money they make at the moment. His wealth and his ability to do business are both dependent on the value of his assets, not his bank balance. If his assets in the states are falling in value, he'll want to prop up the overall portfolio by maximising the value of his shares in LFC. Any port in a storm and all that

I see now. You would think DIC/DUBAI would be able to give him a way round this problem, so that he wasn't so dependant on LFC to prop up his portfolio. It's all very untidy.

[ELNINO 9]

from sckair. a good insider posted minutes ago

I've had chance to read my emails and listen to my messages now and it's all very interesting. As promised this is what I've been told.

Last night I said, 'two's company, three's a crowd..... Four is getting cluttered!'

Well, there are now 4 separate factors involved with the deal.

1. Tom Hicks and George Gillett.

2. DIC

3. A fans representative

4. Hicks's other investors from the U.S.

To summarise:

Gillett has been unwell and unable to keep up with the unfolding events. I don't know the severity of his ill health but Hicks has taken the lead in pushing his partner towards a sale. Irrespective of Gillett's health Hicks needs / wants a partner with significant 'liquid' cash behind them and so he's urging Gillett to quit. However, Hicks wants to hand pick the buyer. Understandably, Gillett's attitude has been negative to this line of approach and he's resentful about being dictated to. Gillett's preferred option in now DIC.

DIC have negotiated a fee with Gillett exclusively and he's agreed the sale price. As a courtesy DIC have included Hicks in the negotiations, understanding that he would be a likely partner in the short term. Hicks has reluctantly taken part in the negotiations and feels very threatened by their looming presence. Remember, he wants to keep control. He came around to the idea of letting them have 49% but wanted to understand what their involvement would be. Obviously, DIC want to finance the club (Hicks can't match their spending predictions) and install an independent fans representative to the board.

Hicks feels threatened by DIC in isolation, he fears what control he can exert over the cub, even if he owns 51%. Add a fans representative into the mix (Hicks is very aware of our (the fans) opinions towards him) and he feels he'd be a lame duck. Remember Hicks wants to keep control!

So, in a frantic attempt to strengthen his position HIcks has gone back to the U.S. to work on 3 finance packages. 1. Funding a buyout of Gillett himself. 2. Finding a rich partner. 3. Doing a very complicated deal with the banks for them to own a portion of the club and finance it over the next 25 years. At the moment, the most likely and well received option has been securing an uber-rich west coast investor - someone with a huge venture capital record and some involvement with U.S. based sports.

As we stand today the door is still open to DIC to bid for Gillett's entire 50% and shut Hicks out. After placing this offer Hicks would have 90 days to match it. DIC won't improve the initial cash offer to Gillett by very much but this should be enough to preclude Hicks after 90 days. DIC could vastly improve the after sale sweeteners to Gillett. In which case Gillett will find a legal way to push the sale trough.

I'm also told that along with the Gillett plan DIC still haven't given up on buying Hicks out completely. Hoping that he realises that he's got know where left to go.... This all depends on Hicks not pulling off a master swoop and convincing his west coast friend to get involved.

This is far from over!

[MattB]

I see now. You would think DIC/DUBAI would be able to give him a way round this problem, so that he wasn't so dependant on LFC to prop up his portfolio. It's all very untidy.

It's a ****ing mess and will get a lot messier before it's resolved one way or another.

I do think it's strange that the DIC chief financial officer was negotiating the partnership/management structure though. Suggests to me that those talks were much more about financial arrangements than how decisions would be made...

[Meols Kopite]

Thanks...very interesting.