Poll - Expectations of Fans, Manager and Owners

[Vermilion]

Ah get to ****

[ISMF]

Dont worry about it, it was a mistake I made.

The questions had greater context over in TIA (where many have been debate topics). Out of context I can see how they can be misinterpreted .

Problem was I had got such a good response over there, that I wanted to simply expand the survey to the rest of the fan base (using same questions rather than manipulating it by editing them)

Next time though it will have greater planning from start.

[Fosterbloke]

I just want to see us play well and be in the hunt for the title.

It's an entertainment business at the end of the day so if I'm entertained then I'm happy.

[MrMichael]

Dont worry about it, it was a mistake I made.

The questions had greater context over in TIA (where many have been debate topics). Out of context I can see how they can be misinterpreted .

Problem was I had got such a good response over there, that I wanted to simply expand the survey to the rest of the fan base (using same questions rather than manipulating it by editing them)

Next time though it will have greater planning from start.

That makes sense, personally I do have a couple of interpretation issues with the questions but can accept that in TIA context they may have been more appropriate. Perhaps it might be worth when presenting the results to briefly mention the context issue with a couple of them. Anyway, I do think this is a pretty interesting idea and methodology issues aside it will be fascinating to see how results from different sites differ, always is with Morse's multi-site MOTM polls. Which btw someone really should persuade TIA to join in on.

Unless I get any objections from site owners, I will post everything (all sites data) free for anyone to access

Well for one we've no objections to that at all

[ISMF]

Thanks Micheal, I will do.

Going to close the polls now, so can collate/analyse the data . Will post everything in here within the week.

Btw do you have a link to the Morse's multi-site MOTM polls ? As I will have a word over in TIA try get them to join. (never seen it before)

[Neil Young]

I hope the results will be interpreted properly.

From the questions and subsequent posts here, I see no reason for optimism.

If that's trashing the thread, then tough. People ought to be aware polling is not as simple as it appears or even as many professional pollsters like to believe.

[dom9]

I hope the results will be interpreted properly.

From the questions and subsequent posts here, I see no reason for optimism.

If that's trashing the thread, then tough. People ought to be aware polling is not as simple as it appears or even as many professional pollsters like to believe.

Why don't you offer your services?

[Neil Young]

I don't mind people doing what they want but choosing questions is, by definition, selective. And what is being measured here? It's not clear whether it's the gap between public statements and private goals, the difference between our demands of the team/owners/manager or who we think is responsible for whatever is achieved or what. And then there's the timing - it inevitably biases results so unless it's part of an organised longitudinal study...

And then there's the pollster's influence on discussion just in this thread, let alone elsewhere.

And the methodological implications - we've already seen people with a certain view self-deselecting. Like you, for instance.

It's already f*cked, there's no saving it.

Which is fine, unless anyone makes any claims for the exercise as being anything but a way to waste time.

[ISMF]

The results actually do form part of a longitudinal study (this is one of a long sequence at TIA albeit with a few extra questions)

However I would counter that the vast majority of those arguments can equally be applied to every single poll run on a forum.

Self-deselecting, is an experimental variable that cant be overcome with a survey. How many times have you been phoned up to ask to partake in a survey, which you refuse ? How many times do you ignore the people in the street with a clip board ? How many times do you go into a MOM thread an not vote ?

As for timing, is it a particularly positive time or negative time ? seems as good a time as ever (during an actual season) to run a poll

Then theres the pollsters influence on this forum. You would need to be pretty weak minded to be influenced by someone so easily. On topics debated to death. If I said Reina should be MOM for his last game, I hardly expect a significant part of our fan base to go, you know what I agree. These are not questions people dont have preformed opinions upon.

There is a huge amount of data generated, and various approaches that can be taken.

From are UK fans more optimistic than US fans ?
Are there any differences between fans between forums ?
Do our expectations fall above or below what would make us happy.
Do those who value the europa league target low or high league position ? (cups vs league)

Not saying other aspect have no influence, but to say it is ****ed before you begin is wrong.

[MrMichael]

Btw do you have a link to the Morse's multi-site MOTM polls ? As I will have a word over in TIA try get them to join. (never seen it before)

Sure - our sticky with the ongoing tables in is here, quite a bit of info in the first post - http://www.est1892.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=81981 (there'll be one on each of the other sites too). After each game a poll is posted on each site then Morse collates the results. Its been going on for years now and a good number of the forums join in.

[Neil Young]

The results actually do form part of a longitudinal study (this is one of a long sequence at TIA albeit with a few extra questions)

However I would counter that the vast majority of those arguments can equally be applied to every single poll run on a forum.

Self-deselecting, is an experimental variable that cant be overcome with a survey. How many times have you been phoned up to ask to partake in a survey, which you refuse ? How many times do you ignore the people in the street with a clip board ? How many times do you go into a MOM thread an not vote ?

As for timing, is it a particularly positive time or negative time ? seems as good a time as ever (during an actual season) to run a poll

Then theres the pollsters influence on this forum. You would need to be pretty weak minded to be influenced by someone so easily. On topics debated to death. If I said Reina should be MOM for his last game, I hardly expect a significant part of our fan base to go, you know what I agree. These are not questions people dont have preformed opinions upon.

There is a huge amount of data generated, and various approaches that can be taken.

From are UK fans more optimistic than US fans ?
Are there any differences between fans between forums ?
Do our expectations fall above or below what would make us happy.
Do those who value the europa league target low or high league position ? (cups vs league)

Not saying other aspect have no influence, but to say it is ****ed before you begin is wrong.

Ok, so it's a study comparing the mental outlook of Liverpool fans from different countries. And this tells us what?

As part of a longitudinal study it might have some utility but I'd still bet not as much as the claims that will be made for it.

As for the influence jibe, I suggest you are seriously underweighting the role and importance of contextual issues.

My point is indeed that all polls on forums are ****e, and tell you little or nothing about anything, partly because of design problems but mainly because analysis, where there is any at all, is superficial and flimsy.

I look forward to having to change that assessment.

[Cormack74]

Ok, so it's a study comparing the mental outlook of Liverpool fans from different countries. And this tells us what?

As part of a longitudinal study it might have some utility but I'd still bet not as much as the claims that will be made for it.

As for the influence jibe, I suggest you are seriously underweighting the role and importance of contextual issues.

My point is indeed that all polls on forums are ****e, and tell you little or nothing about anything, partly because of design problems but mainly because analysis, where there is any at all, is superficial and flimsy.

I look forward to having to change that assessment.

I've no idea what you're saying Neil, but on the basis of:

longitudinal study,
have some utility,
importance of contextual issues


I declare you the outright winner

[ISMF]

Ok, so it's a study comparing the mental outlook of Liverpool fans from different countries. And this tells us what?

As part of a longitudinal study it might have some utility but I'd still bet not as much as the claims that will be made for it.

As for the influence jibe, I suggest you are seriously underweighting the role and importance of contextual issues.

My point is indeed that all polls on forums are ****e, and tell you little or nothing about anything, partly because of design problems but mainly because analysis, where there is any at all, is superficial and flimsy.

I look forward to having to change that assessment.

Hypothetically lets say, 90% of fans from the US think its inconceivable that FSG would sack Rodgers in his first season

By contrast 80% of UK residences think 8th. That would be a clear statistical difference.

That difference would be multifaceted

Exposure to the media (pundits to newspapers)
Ability to attend games
Ties to the owners

Whilst I may not be able to provide the underlying reasons, I would be able to provide a likely rationale for this difference. Likewise if we have 25 people from Uruguay who are voting on the poll. Would anyone argue with the rationale that this is an effect of having two Uruguayan players ?

The poll may not provide proof, but we can use common sense to interpret what a result means. Perhaps you would think of that as superficial, but I for one find it interesting.

A survey does not need to provide all the answers, but can provide the basis for us asking why is there a difference ? Without the initial survey, you don't know there is a difference to investigate.

It would be a waste of everyone's time, doing a survey detailing the difference of US and UK fans and possible reasons if there is no difference in the first place.

We may disagree about my influence upon voters, however my influence upon posters in this thread is equal (I have no previous posts in this forum). Therefore interpretations within different groups is valid from within this forum. When that gets compared to other fans forums it becomes more complicated, but if there is little or no difference, it would be probable that my influence is minimal.

Before dismissing it out of hand, or presuming I will miss use the data, perhaps its better to wait and see (and then you can criticise to your hearts content)

[Neil Young]

This is exactly the problem with polls. People think they tell you more than they do. And why this is is to be found at the heart of your logic, in the usually buried but here admirably openly suggested, that we can't know anything that isn't measured. And by clear logical extension, we can't know anything that isn't measurable.

So quantification tends to be used as a way of dismissing all things that aren't quantified and indeed aren't quantifiable.

Measuring what people they think they think and then using it as the sole or even main basis for analysis reminds me of nothing more than the comment by a Tory minister in the Nineties - I think it was Michael Howard but it could have been any of them - when claiming that a fall in the rate of increase in the rate of inflation was a triumph. He was hailing a derivative of a derivative of a derivative. It tells you something about prices but what it says about reality is vanishingly little.

And I fear the same is true about opinion polling, especially when looking at dynamic and complex feelings and thoughts such as optimism for the future prospects of something that very few of us are really qualified to judge, let alone having access to all relevant data.

And really, what does a difference between US and UK supporters of the magnitude you mention really tell us? There could be dozens of reasons, very few of which have anything to do with the real prospects for the club, however they may be assessed.

Carry on by all means but let's not pretend there aren't already serious flaws in the whole exercise, except as an entertainment vehicle, to be forgotten as quickly as as failed X-Factor contestant.

The only trouble is, it will have a half-life way beyond its useful existence because it has the veneer of objectivity and rigour.

[ISMF]

For someone that writes so eloquently you dont half write some rubbish. You presume data will be handled incorrectly, you presume wrong interpretations will be made. You dismiss it before you even see the results.

However your worst assumption or "logical extension" (we cant know something that isnt measured, and therefore we dont know anything that isnt measured). This is a baseless arguement.

Answer me this, is there a difference between UK and American fans expectations ?

My bet you dont have an answer (like anyone else in this forum). Having a poll is just one way to tackle that problem, and it just so happens is one of the best ways. Nothing I state say's that its the only way (and if you notice one of the key things I say is that the purpose is to start debate ie the interpretation)

Now the converse argument for your "logical extension", is that you can answer that question in a way that cant be measured......Please enlighten me. How would you go about answering that question by not measuring anything.

Its certainly something we can discover, its not impossible, so if its not a survey how ?

I guess you could debate it in a forum...... But wait wouldnt that be influencing opinion, even more so than the reason you have dismissed the survey here ? How do you know your not just talking to a noisy minority, a far bigger influence than a survey of 2000 people. That even before you start getting into areas about who is the better debater, or those whose purpose is to derail a thread.....

As for polls being useless, and as quickly forgotten as an X-Factor contestant, can I ask why you log onto forums ?

Do you expect to change the owners ?
Do you expect to influence who Rodgers buys ?
Do you think voting for Suarez in the MOM poll will get him the Barclay's award?

No, we all log on for the same reason, to read and learn the views of others. A poll is just another way of capturing that.