Title Race

[Scratch]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001%E2...#Match_results

That was some finish they had for that season.

What a weird league season that was for them, they lost 3 games all season, and all of them at home against teams you'd expect them to beat.

[EwarWoo]

What a weird league season that was for them, they lost 3 games all season, and all of them at home against teams you'd expect them to beat.

Newcastle and Leeds were decent sides back then.

[Scratch]

Newcastle and Leeds were decent sides back then.

But you would still expect them to be beaten (or at best a draw) at Highbury tho, wouldn't you? Even during our lean times, I still expected us to come away with at least a point, if not all 3, against any side at Anfield.

[dom9]

Not if there were other factors which had a bigger effect on the outcome.

We need a statistician to put this to bed.

[James P]

It's like the 50/50 argument when tossing a coin, the longer it go's where you keep getting heads, the chance of getting tails go's up due to the law of averages, but really, it's still just 50/50 every toss.

If we think of our games like that, the unbeaten run record is sort of irrellivant, except maybe it isn't, because it exists, for now.

Firstly, you've contradicted yourself - the chance of getting tails is always 50/50, as you say.The probability of throwing several tails in a row is small, but that's only because each individual throw is 50/50. The last throw has absolutely no bearing on the next one, so likelihood of throwing a tail after several heads in a row does not change as the law of averages is not a real law and has no basis in absolute fact. We're talking about probability here - if you tossed a coin 10 times the outcome with the highest probability is that you'd get five heads and five tails, but only marginally higher than various other non-equal outcomes.

This run of games in completely different. There are three outcomes not two in each game (win, lose, draw) and each outcome is not equally as likely. Similarly the likelihood of each outcome is different for each game.

Unlike tossing the coin, the previous game(s) can influence the outcome of the next game in terms of form, fitness, confidence and so forth. So unlike a coin toss each game is linked, not separate.

So in short, our position is **** all like tossing a coin, and the last eight games are having a direct bearing on the next six.

We need a statistician to put this to bed.

I did stats at A-level 23 years ago - does that count?

[dom9]

I did stats at A-level 23 years ago - does that count?

So did I.

[Muddled]

You never fail to disappoint, JamesP. You're the experienced, knowledgeable elder of the group who everyone enjoys listening to as you tells stories and pass on pearls of wisdom over a beer. Then you've got the yin to your yang - RedSpin - the other elder of the group who everyone offers water, clock watches and counts down the moment till he leaves the house.

[Gibbo]

If we lose the next six games and finish fifth has this season been a failure?

[captainfog]

If we lose the next six games and finish fifth has this season been a failure?

I'd sack Rodgers.

[James P]

You never fail to disappoint, JamesP. You're the experienced, knowledgeable elder of the group who everyone enjoys listening to as you tells stories and pass on pearls of wisdom over a beer. Then you've got the yin to your yang - RedSpin - the other elder of the group who everyone offers water, clock watches and counts down the moment till he leaves the house.

That's utter ****e. I don't drink beer.

[Vermilion]

Firstly, you've contradicted yourself - the chance of getting tails is always 50/50, as you say.The probability of throwing several tails in a row is small, but that's only because each individual throw is 50/50. The last throw has absolutely no bearing on the next one, so likelihood of throwing a tail after several heads in a row does not change as the law of averages is not a real law and has no basis in absolute fact. We're talking about probability here - if you tossed a coin 10 times the outcome with the highest probability is that you'd get five heads and five tails, but only marginally higher than various other non-equal outcomes.

This run of games in completely different. There are three outcomes not two in each game (win, lose, draw) and each outcome is not equally as likely. Similarly the likelihood of each outcome is different for each game.

Unlike tossing the coin, the previous game(s) can influence the outcome of the next game in terms of form, fitness, confidence and so forth. So unlike a coin toss each game is linked, not separate.

So in short, our position is **** all like tossing a coin, and the last eight games are having a direct bearing on the next six.



I did stats at A-level 23 years ago - does that count?

Pretty explanation.

Except i said 'i't's like the 50/50 coin toss argument', i wasn't saying it as fact, just stating the argument is out there and how it's put across.

Also, i go to state form and how either team plays is relevant in posts further down.

But thanks.

[James P]

Except i said 'i't's like the 50/50 coin toss argument', i wasn't saying it as fact, just stating the argument is out there and how it's put across.

Also, i go to state form and how either team plays is relevant in posts further down.

I chose to ignore those as they didn't fit with my slightly patronising rant.

[Muddled]

That's utter ****e. I don't drink beer.

Okay. Horlicks.

[Vermilion]

I chose to ignore those as they didn't fit with my slightly patronising rant.

[magicalbarnes]

Although we have 6 games remaining, im sure BR will only be looking at the next 4 which are west ham (a), city (h), norwich (a) & chelsea (h)

Im my opinion if we win those - barring a miracle, if we win those we'll be champions.