Brendan Rodgers

[tanner]

We won't be 5th that's for sure. I'll predict 8th

I'd be surprised at that, could see us being 6th though, behind Spurs maybe, but I still think we'll be 5th, but the gap between us and 4th spot will have grown significantly.

[dww]

Why shouldn't they treat last year as the proof the model worked? Who's to say that this year is the anomaly?

I think it maybe that we are set for less stable success than some might like. We have been starting from a lower point than our rivals and our business model is most similar to Arsenals. It has taken them many years to get to a level where they look capable of challenging for the top two spots in the league.

Given that we need to do long term investment in our stadium we have to accept that without a sugar daddy coming in (which would now be hard) then we are going to struggle to buy our way to success. We need to develop both players and our team/squad.

In the end I think looking around even at the top end of the market a lot of even purchases fail (or at least underwhelm) and arguably most don't hit the ground running in the first year.

The main positive is that the other PL teams have wasted cash and time in recent years too. Look how far ahead Barcelona, Bayern and Real are from even Chelsea. Teams like Atletico and Dortmund have shown it is possible to compete at the highest level without their huge resources and established advantages.

[Hemingway]

We won't be 5th that's for sure. I'll predict 8th

We'll be 5th and comfortably. We're twice as close to 4th as we are to 6th, and Henderson and Coutinho have new contracts, plus possibly Sterling and Skrtel. Plus the incomings.

Besides, you're aware that wages only correlate with finishing position, right? (Because they roughly correlate with quality. It's called an instrumental variable.) Not like if we kept Johnson on giant wages we'd be better off because it pushes the wage bill higher. The whole wage bill = finishing position argument is tedious.

[The_weatherman]

I think it maybe that we are set for less stable success than some might like. We have been starting from a lower point than our rivals and our business model is most similar to Arsenals. It has taken them many years to get to a level where they look capable of challenging for the top two spots in the league.

Given that we need to do long term investment in our stadium we have to accept that without a sugar daddy coming in (which would now be hard) then we are going to struggle to buy our way to success. We need to develop both players and our team/squad.

In the end I think looking around even at the top end of the market a lot of even purchases fail (or at least underwhelm) and arguably most don't hit the ground running in the first year.

The main positive is that the other PL teams have wasted cash and time in recent years too. Look how far ahead Barcelona, Bayern and Real are from even Chelsea. Teams like Atletico and Dortmund have shown it is possible to compete at the highest level without their huge resources and established advantages.

But teams like Dortmund and Atletico rely to a considerable extent on their successful recruitment, the less said about ours the better. I'll wager they have more football men in their executive setup than us too.

[Hemingway]

Why shouldn't they treat last year as the proof the model worked? Who's to say that this year is the anomaly?

dww made a good point about the uncertainty of the future, but it's also worth noting that there were a lot of genuinely anomalous things about last year, aside from hindsight or it being one good year in three. A lot of what was good last year came from Suarez/Sturridge (not all, but they were huge to what we did), and honestly I don't think we can expect to have and retain two strikers of that level consistently. We also wildly outperformed metrics which are, historically, really hard to outperform year-on-year. (Shot conversion rate was the highest in the PL in the last five years; expected goals is a flawed model, but useful as context, and by that we had a 1 in 14 chance of scoring as many goals as we did last year based on the shots that we took; our set pieces were unsustainable, as we've seen this year.)

"Have two world-class strikers every year, and be on an unrealistic hot streak fueled by impossibly high set piece conversion and finishing rates" can not be the plan because it's impossible to replicate consistently, and I don't think it's what we were setting out to do either. Last season was a beautiful accident of sorts, a gift that we nearly took full advantage of. But I don't think it was in the blueprint, and I don't think it can be a blueprint going forward.

[Fosterbloke]

We won't be 5th that's for sure. I'll predict 8th

I predict you'll be banned from this forum due to your relentless negativity.

[Fosterbloke]

dww made a good point about the uncertainty of the future, but it's also worth noting that there were a lot of genuinely anomalous things about last year, aside from hindsight or it being one good year in three. A lot of what was good last year came from Suarez/Sturridge (not all, but they were huge to what we did), and honestly I don't think we can expect to have and retain two strikers of that level consistently. We also wildly outperformed metrics which are, historically, really hard to outperform year-on-year. (Shot conversion rate was the highest in the PL in the last five years; expected goals is a flawed model, but useful as context, and by that we had a 1 in 14 chance of scoring as many goals as we did last year based on the shots that we took; our set pieces were unsustainable, as we've seen this year.)

"Have two world-class strikers every year, and be on an unrealistic hot streak fueled by impossibly high set piece conversion and finishing rates" can not be the plan because it's impossible to replicate consistently, and I don't think it's what we were setting out to do either. Last season was a beautiful accident of sorts, a gift that we nearly took full advantage of. But I don't think it was in the blueprint, and I don't think it can be a blueprint going forward.

Wonderfully stated. Bravo

[Daniel 7]

dww made a good point about the uncertainty of the future, but it's also worth noting that there were a lot of genuinely anomalous things about last year, aside from hindsight or it being one good year in three. A lot of what was good last year came from Suarez/Sturridge (not all, but they were huge to what we did), and honestly I don't think we can expect to have and retain two strikers of that level consistently. We also wildly outperformed metrics which are, historically, really hard to outperform year-on-year. (Shot conversion rate was the highest in the PL in the last five years; expected goals is a flawed model, but useful as context, and by that we had a 1 in 14 chance of scoring as many goals as we did last year based on the shots that we took; our set pieces were unsustainable, as we've seen this year.)

"Have two world-class strikers every year, and be on an unrealistic hot streak fueled by impossibly high set piece conversion and finishing rates" can not be the plan because it's impossible to replicate consistently, and I don't think it's what we were setting out to do either. Last season was a beautiful accident of sorts, a gift that we nearly took full advantage of. But I don't think it was in the blueprint, and I don't think it can be a blueprint going forward.

And this is also a brilliant argument for changing the manager

[Vermilion]

I just feel that we're wasting years on BR, and he'll never ever be a top multiple trophy winning manager.

Just can't shake the feeling, i had it when he came in, so underwhelmed, and tbh it's never left me, i watched in almost disbelief when we looked like we'd score our way to the title last season, couldn't believe it.

But anyway.

Bloody hell i hope i'm wrong.

[Chazza]

Oh Verm.

You're one of the good ones

[Daniel 7]

I just feel that we're wasting years on BR, and he'll never ever be a top multiple trophy winning manager.

Just can't shake the feeling, i had it when he came in, so underwhelmed, and tbh it's never left me, i watched in almost disbelief when we looked like we'd score our way to the title last season, couldn't believe it.

But anyway.

Bloody hell i hope i'm wrong.

Its quite sad, but the more I think about it, the more I think he was riding the perfect storm.

[Vermilion]

Oh Verm.

You're one of the good ones

Can't help it, i have little faith that he's the man to lead us to glory.

As i say i hope i'm wrong, but i just get the feeling of him having this big facade up in front of him, can't shake it.

Not gonna go on about it, wont mention it again, good times or bad. I don't dislike him and obviously i support him; and by god i wish him well, it's just a confidence thing i suppose.

Sorry i mentioned it now, it's not like its something i've just thought of.

[Chazza]

Can't help it, i have little faith that he's the man to lead us to glory.

As i say i hope i'm wrong, but i just get the feeling of him having this big facade up in front of him, can't shake it.

Not gonna go on about it, wont mention it again, good times or bad. I don't dislike him and obviously i support him; and by god i wish him well, it's just a confidence thing i suppose.

Sorry i mentioned it now, it's not like its something i've just thought of.

mate you can say what you like.

My comment was tongue in cheek and I believe everyone can put their opinion across as they see fit.

Constantly ramming it in a negative way does my head in but then I don't post as much anymore.

Anyway I get your point of view just not sure if anyone can lead us to glory in the constraints we work with.

[Daniel 7]

I don't post as much anymore.

That's a genuine pity

[Chazza]

Not sure if serious

I find the older I get the more disconnected with football I am.

Never thought I would feel like that 5 years ago or even 2.