Lucas and the evaluation of players performance

[RichC]

it's Craigs opinion - we all have them on here. I agree with some I don't with others but it's the person who's posting perception of things.

Lucas is a decent enough player to be in the squad - a 1st team starter probably not but the lad works hard and gets on with what he does as best he can.

[Neil Young]

Mattshark 0 Craig_H 0

The draw does neither any good and they're both relegated after being docked points for fielding ineligible statistics and being condescending.

Mattshark is dropping through the divisions like a stone. Craig goes into administration and is wound up.

[dww]

If you're watching a game and you feel a player's been barely effective, do you mistrust your own judgement so much that you think "well he looked poor, but i'd better have a look at the stats to just double check" ?

No, I'm a human too. I'm just as wrong as everyone else in doing that alone though.

I've often watched a game (or highlights of a game) back afterwards and come to very different conclusions to those I had when I first watched. Also statistics of things you rarely notice (such as the number of interceptions and tackles) often show up the limited nature of ones own observations.

[Mostar]

I find it odd how easy people find it to dismiss statistical evidence in favour of subjective memories. I accept that statistics can only tell a partial picture but eye witness testimony is notoriously unreliable and subject to bias .

There is obviously a lot beyond the simple statistics presented with reference to Lucas to football but equally I think people tend to be to quick to dismiss them.

It is exactly just that. I also think some statistical info is more relevant than others. At the end of day, does it matter how many corners, yellow cards, fouls etc each player/team committed. Not really but we do take into account ball possession, scoring chances etc. In other words, even the statistical information is used subjectively by most of us and passing is not excluded. I personally feel that passing stats is one piece of that I absolutely ignore as I am more interested in one risky pass (likelihood of success much less) that may result in one scoring chance than tap passing that players like Lucas engage a lot (probability of success 100%). I have nothing against Leiva but by only focusing on stats he would appear to be A1 type of passer and to me he is far from it.

[dww]

It is exactly just that. I also think some statistical info is more relevant than others. At the end of day, does it matter how many corners, yellow cards, fouls etc each player/team committed. Not really but we do take into account ball possession, scoring chances etc. In other words, even the statistical information is used subjectively by most of us and passing is not excluded. I personally feel that passing stats is one piece of that I absolutely ignore as I am more interested in one risky pass (likelihood of success much less) that may result in one scoring chance than tap passing that players like Lucas engage a lot (probability of success 100%). I have nothing against Leiva but by only focusing on stats he would appear to be A1 type of passer and to me he is far from it.

That is a fair point. I don't think that Lucas is as limited in passing as some make out. My theory would be that along with his excellent short passing Lucas makes very good straight high odd passes to attacking midfielders making runs ahead of him and to the wings. He almost never switches play or plays high balls over players.

This has positive and negative points - players who like the ball into feet in particular benefit and the team with tend to cycle/recycle the ball more with him in the midfield allowing other more creative players to pick their moment to attack. On the negative side he will rarely miss out defenders and he relies on the wingers (and attacking midfielders to make good runs and offer width) and ideally the fullbacks to move into midfield or you can end up going backwards. I still think he is a player you use to get the best out of your top players or team setup rather than one to make a big personal impact on games.

Last season despite improved personal performances the loss of Aurelio and Arbeloa who were excellent at moving into midfield and the poor form of all our attacking midfielders (and tosserish behaviour of Riera) meant that he didn't have a big impact.

[Mostar]

That is a fair point. I don't think that Lucas is as limited in passing as some make out. My theory would be that along with his excellent short passing Lucas makes very good straight high odd passes to attacking midfielders making runs ahead of him and to the wings. He almost never switches play or plays high balls over players.
This has positive and negative points - players who like the ball into feet in particular benefit and the team with tend to cycle/recycle the ball more with him in the midfield allowing other more creative players to pick their moment to attack. On the negative side he will rarely miss out defenders and he relies on the wingers (and attacking midfielders to make good runs and offer width) and ideally the fullbacks to move into midfield or you can end up going backwards. I still think he is a player you use to get the best out of your top players or team setup rather than one to make a big personal impact on games.

.

I feel like we hijacked the thread (my last post in this thread about Lucas) but Lucas is defensively minded type of player and majority of his passing is two-touch short tapping to the players behind him. He lacks confidence to attempt any forward long ball passing as he is just too risk-averse and his inability, like you pointed out, to switch short-to-long & safe-to-risk plays is what imo makes him one dimensional ( in terms of passing). If there is area he would need desperately to improve it would be take-a-chance high ball passing.

[Exiled_red]

Mattshark 0 Craig_H 0

The draw does neither any good and they're both relegated after being docked points for fielding ineligible statistics and being condescending.

Mattshark is dropping through the divisions like a stone. Craig goes into administration and is wound up.

[Kenneth]

I find it odd how easy people find it to dismiss statistical evidence in favour of subjective memories. I accept that statistics can only tell a partial picture but eye witness testimony is notoriously unreliable and subject to bias .

There is obviously a lot beyond the simple statistics presented with reference to Lucas to football but equally I think people tend to be to quick to dismiss them.

If I came away from a game thinking player x was a pussy, didn't make any tackles in that game, then the stats showed he made 4 tackles, I'd accept that, put it down to them being less noticable ones (not sliding tackles, no foul etc) or that I had misidentifed the players from a distance. My eye witness evidence was unreliable. If after over 50 games I conclude that player x (smicer) is a pussy in the tackle, the mistakes are likely to have been evened out. Bias is another thing.

I don't rate Lucas very highly and notice his worst traits/ performances more because of this. However, probably because of him struggling at first and the vilification he received, I think there is a lot of positive bias that leads people to think average perfemances (compared to his peers at other clubs) are better than they are. When there are stats that could put him in a positive light at first glance, they are being given too much credence.

[Craig_H]

Of course they dont. I actually think stats are overused way too much by people these days (for example, the nonsense about a player's 'assists' as if his last pass was the only important one in the whole build-up).

But the suggestion was that Lucas only plays short passes and only plays them in the middle of the pitch. That's where direction and distance is relevant. It shows that's just not true.

It doesnt make him or a good or a bad player. They're just stats. But they show that Craig's taking out of his arse making those particular claims.

I didnt say Lucas only plays short passes and only plays then in the middle of the park. So clearly, it's you that is talking out of your arse.

[Craig_H]

No, I'm a human too. I'm just as wrong as everyone else in doing that alone though.

I've often watched a game (or highlights of a game) back afterwards and come to very different conclusions to those I had when I first watched. Also statistics of things you rarely notice (such as the number of interceptions and tackles) often show up the limited nature of ones own observations.

I agree about watching the game back again.

But that was really what i was referring to, after having watched it back, i'm surprised if many people genuinely think they should consult the stats before making a conclusive judgement on what they have seen.

[dww]

I agree about watching the game back again.

But that was really what i was referring to, after having watched it back, i'm surprised if many people genuinely think they should consult the stats before making a conclusive judgement on what they have seen.

If so I think most people are over confident in their ability to overcome their own biases and have too great a consideration for their observational powers.

[Mattshark]

This isn't a Lucas thread

It is now.

[Mattshark]

If so I think most people are over confident in their ability to over come their own biases and have too great a consideration for their observational powers.

I think that is true for a lot of things, it is amazing how many people consider witness testimony the height of evidence and get upset when you point out all the confounding factors involved.

[Kenneth]

If so I think most people are over confident in their ability to over come their own biases and have too great a consideration for their observational powers.

Fair enough, but it is unlikely that bias in this case is random, or without basis (racial or religious or whatever). we know opinion is a personal and subjective matter, especially in areas like football. Still doesn't make Lucas good enough though

[red g]

looking at lucas he has had a few standout games.....but then so has every other midfielder in the premier league.

I just dont get it. he is an average premiership player who would get in most teams but is not good enough for a top 4 team at the moment, although you can look at someone like fletcher for scum who is a few years older and only in last 2 seasons has he become a decent player.

If pellegrini comes in, he will want an attacking free flowing game, lucas slows the game upto much and doesnt have the eye for the killer ball.

Maybe rafa didnt get the best out of him and if pelle came int hen we may see this box to box attacking midfielder we bought?