Brendan Rodgers

[Shaggy]

We might have kept a good number of clean sheets, but the problem is the vast amount of other games when we've conceded 2 and 3. I can't ever remember shipping twos and threes as many times as we have this season.

[Mattshark]

We might have kept a good number of clean sheets, but the problem is the vast amount ot other games when we've conceded 2 and 3. I can't ever remember shipping twos and threes as many times as we have this season.

I agree, but that too me suggests a different problem, namely late on when are chasing games.

[Neil Young]

To be clear I wasn't claiming all economics was non-investigative, merely that the parts seized upon by by austerity cheer leaders seems to be. From what I've seen I think you are too charitable to R&R.

I suspect we pretty much agree about social sciences but have different attitudes to models and methodologies. There are plenty of feedback loops in science and engineering that happily coexist constants in science and engineering. Although I suppose there are, in general, better simplified cases and statistics available.

Obviously though, this all just shows that Rodgers needs to buy a more dominant central defender and get of his inherent height based prejudices.

R&R - too kind? To be clear I think they're totally discredited and serves them right.

The one feedback loop that doesn't exist in physical science (although arguably it does in second order sciences like ecology) is awareness, what happens when the actors in a system become aware of an abstraction from outside the system, like a rule or formula or theory or whatever. There are plenty of examples, from all sorts of social sciences - Black-Scholes is a good example of what can happen. I suppose we could say that awareness of what is happening/has happened before means that a social system is never closed.

So in this sense Rodgers' height bias is fixed until a deus ex machina (e.g. Arn) tells him that the future does not belong to the midgets and that a simple rule like that is always going to be proved wrong in anything but the shortest of short (pun unintended) terms because other managers become aware of what is happening and adjust their strategy to deal with it. It's an arms race.

Hmm, maybe ecology could provide some useful models for us...

[danperkins]

**** in the Cups (not one good run), **** in the league and uber **** against any half decent side.....it's difficult to be particularly positive but at least we have a direction and we're better to watch. If next season is a repeat of this, however, then Rodgers will have to go IMO.

[little dave hedgehog]

Or, as various people are supposed to have said first, everything connects to everything else.

james burke

[Neil Young]

It's been attributed to Da Vinci who I imagine predates Burke.

Did you mean the creator of Robicheaux or the bloke that used to do Tomorrow's World alongside Wing Commander Baxter? Or another one?

[little dave hedgehog]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_%28TV_series%29

[dww]

R&R - too kind? To be clear I think they're totally discredited and serves them right.

I was referring to your 'may not have intended it' comment.

The one feedback loop that doesn't exist in physical science (although arguably it does in second order sciences like ecology) is awareness, what happens when the actors in a system become aware of an abstraction from outside the system, like a rule or formula or theory or whatever. There are plenty of examples, from all sorts of social sciences - Black-Scholes is a good example of what can happen. I suppose we could say that awareness of what is happening/has happened before means that a social system is never closed.

So in this sense Rodgers' height bias is fixed until a deus ex machina (e.g. Arn) tells him that the future does not belong to the midgets and that a simple rule like that is always going to be proved wrong in anything but the shortest of short (pun unintended) terms because other managers become aware of what is happening and adjust their strategy to deal with it. It's an arms race.

Hmm, maybe ecology could provide some useful models for us...

Certainly ecology is a field ripe for some good analysis. I'm not sure how far I'd go along with your privileging of consciousness but it is certainly something that is frequently poorly accounted for in models. Certainly I suspect we are in danger of drifting off topic.

[dww]

It's been attributed to Da Vinci who I imagine predates Burke.

Did you mean the creator of Robicheaux or the bloke that used to do Tomorrow's World alongside Wing Commander Baxter? Or another one?

He probably wrote in a margin somewhere, in latin mirror writing. So it doesn't count.

[Neil Young]

I was referring to your 'may not have intended it' comment.

Certainly ecology is a field ripe for some good analysis. I'm not sure how far I'd go along with your privileging of consciousness but it is certainly something that is frequently poorly accounted for in models. Certainly I suspect we are in danger of drifting off topic.

But I brought it back on topic... :gr*:

Ok...but atoms don't go around picking up information about what other atoms are doing and adjusting their behaviour accordingly. Or do they? Not really my field, maybe they do.

He probably wrote in a margin somewhere, in latin mirror writing. So it doesn't count.

[dww]

But I brought it back on topic... :gr*:

Ok...but atoms don't go around picking up information about what other atoms are doing and adjusting their behaviour accordingly. Or do they? Not really my field, maybe they do.

I wrote an answer to this but I'm far too drunk (who knew bacon and egg cocktails could be so nice) to be sure it wasn't drivel. Safe to say the answer was complicated and potentially dull, and depended on your definition of information.

[Kenneth]

And I think 'potentially' was probably down playing the likelihood.

[Neil Young]

I wrote an answer to this but I'm far too drunk (who knew bacon and egg cocktails could be so nice) to be sure it wasn't drivel. Safe to say the answer was complicated and potentially dull, and depended on your definition of information.

PM it to me. And ignore Kennel, he's in denial about dullness every time he looks in the mirror and makes a noise like Fonzie.

I was thinking about your point about the models not being very good at capturing the impact of consciousness. It's a fair point, although it's always going to be probabilistic.

My fundamental issue with modelling social reality is that any attempt at simplifying will very quickly undermine its utility. Social reality is too complex to model in its entirety but if you don't you immediately risk excluding essential features. Everything is interlocked. Of course you can do it with some acceptable degree of accuracy but results are quite short-term and local.

We can't even model the weather with any degree of accuracy yet there are only a few interlocking parameters - temperature, precipitation, etc. - to allow for and measure. And we know how sensitive the weather is to initial conditions. The social world is vastly more complex and interdependent.

The other things models tend to neglect is power of course.

I hope Rodgers is aware of all this. If not then FSG must sack him.

[dww]

PM it to me. And ignore Kennel, he's in denial about dullness every time he looks in the mirror and makes a noise like Fonzie.

I was thinking about your point about the models not being very good at capturing the impact of consciousness. It's a fair point, although it's always going to be probabilistic.

My fundamental issue with modelling social reality is that any attempt at simplifying will very quickly undermine its utility. Social reality is too complex to model in its entirety but if you don't you immediately risk excluding essential features. Everything is interlocked. Of course you can do it with some acceptable degree of accuracy but results are quite short-term and local.

We can't even model the weather with any degree of accuracy yet there are only a few interlocking parameters - temperature, precipitation, etc. - to allow for and measure. And we know how sensitive the weather is to initial conditions. The social world is vastly more complex and interdependent.

The other things models tend to neglect is power of course.

I hope Rodgers is aware of all this. If not then FSG must sack him.

I'll PM once I have formed a reasonably neat coherent version of what I had to say (including responses to the points raised in your last post). This is likely to happen this evening when I feel the need to procrastinate whilst trying to write cover letters.

I believe as we speak LFC are planning to send Roders on a course titled 'Inhomogeneous Poisson processes and their application to fullback positioning'.

[Neil Young]

Looking forward to it.